Moldova parliamentary election - November 30, 2014

[politicus]

OK, last of this years national election threads - apart from the Turkmenistan electoral type event at Christmas...

The small dirt poor Romanian (err... "Moldovan") speaking former Soviet Republic Moldova is electing a new parliament on November 30.

101 seats will be distributed using the party list form of PR with the whole country as one big constituency.
They have a high 6% threshold (and an even higher for alliances on 9 or 11%), which means just four parties got in last time, but due to party splits two more are represented now. Independents need 2% to get in, so double the price per seat for a party.

Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) is led by veteran Vladimir Voronin (73), who was President 2001-09. In principle they are unreformed communists, but is split between a dominant pragmatic wing and a Marxist left wing. It is pro-Russian and anti-EU. A large part of its voting bloc are ethnic minorities and ethnic Moldovans identifying as non-Romanian since the party is promoting a separate Moldovan nation building project and is strongly anti-unification with Romania. It was ousted by an opposition alliance of four parties in 2009. The Communists got 42 seats in the 2010 election, but 4 have since defected, so they are down to 38.

The Pro-European Coalition was formed between three governing centre-right and centrist parties in 2013 after a split in the Liberal Party had broken the previous Alliance for European Integration:

Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova is led by former businessman Vlad Filat (45), who was previously an MP for the Democrats 1997-2007. He was Prime Minister 2009-2013 until he had to resign after allegations of corruption, abuse of power and influence peddling and replaced by Foreign Minister and career diplomat Iurie Leancă (51). It is a Conservative party and the leading force in the governing three party Pro-European Coalition. It has 32 seats in parliament.

Democratic Party of Moldova is officially a Social Democratic party formed in 1997 by defectors from 3 agrarian and leftist parties, but is pro-austerity and privatization. Seems like complet tools. It is led by economist and former Communist minister Marian Lupu (48) who joined them in 2009 and has 15 seats.

Liberal Reformist Party is a classically liberal party formed by members of a reform group in the Liberal Party after they were ejected by the party. Has 7 seats, but has been well below the threshold in all polls but one outlier (5,9%).

Others

Liberal Party is a populist Conservative (formerly Christian Democratic) party that was formed in 1993. Their economically libertarian wing was ejected in 2013 and founded the Liberal Reformist Party, which stayed in the government. The more populist, anti-austerity wing kept the party name, but had to leave the ruling coalition. It has 5 seats left of the 12 they won in 2010.

Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova is a leftist Russian minority party, which ran on the Communist list in 2010, but were reestablished in 2011 and now has 4 seats in parliament. They are well below the threshold in most polls.

No less than 35 other parties are running, but none of them have a chance.

[politicus]

Five elements that will be influenced by the election: relationship to EU, Transnistria, investment climate, level of corruption and intra-party dynamics:

http://globalriskinsights.com/2014/06/5-events-to-watch-before-moldovas-2014-elections/

Basically the general elections will be a clash for the country’s direction between the current pro-European government and PCRM, who wants Moldova to be oriented more towards Russia.

Public opinion in Moldova has generally been leaning pro-European, but this might have shifted with the impact of Russian sanctions. The country’s economic dependence on Russia is significant, since Russia is its biggest export market and Moldovan migrant workers with jobs in Russia is an important source of income.

PCRM will attack the fragile government coalition of pro-European centre-right parties on their austerity measures and reforms and the government’s incapability to fight corruption. The anti-austerity Liberals will do this as well.

[politicus]

An Appeal Court in Chișinău has approved the decision of the Central Electoral Commission to remove the Russian nationalist Patria party, led by Renato Usatâi, from the lists both because the party received money from Russia and because of "the extremist activities promoted by several party members."

http://www.moldova.org/a-pro-russian-party-was-removed-from-the-parliamentary-elections-in-moldova/

The police says Russian nationalists (many connected to Patria) had planned violent riots  after the election:

http://www.moldova.org/extremists-were-preparing-for-violent-riots-after-the-elections-in-moldova/

[politicus]

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Is any party in Moldova even in favor of unification?

Not officially, but you can find politicians from the pro-Western parties that are pro-unification privately. The issue keeps popping up from time to time and the Black Sea University Foundation has just released a report, that shows it would lead to economic growth.

http://www.moldova.org/the-foundation-of-the-black-sea-the-reunification-between-romania-and-moldova-will-cause-economic-growth/

EDIT: Romania's GDP per capita is five times higher than Moldova's - Moldova really is a backwater.

[politicus]

Sorry, I misread something - threshold is indeed 6% (and higher for coalitions). This means that the PCR is certainly out, as they have been falling throughout. And with that, with 52.19% of the vote in, the pro-Europeans are ahead for the first time in the provisional seat count:


PSRM – 26
PCRM – 23
PLDM – 21
PDM – 20
PL – 11

The thresholds: 6% for one party, 9% for two party alliances and 11% for three party alliances are mentioned in my OP.

[politicus]

Unieua Vamala = Customs union (means with Russia) - a pro russian party with full name "Moldovas Choise-Customs Union"

What about them?

[politicus]

93,9% counted, alomost there..

Party of Socialists 313,832 21.2%       
Liberal Democratic Party 289,206 19.6%       
Party of Communists    264,749 17.9%       
Democratic Party of Moldova 233,337 15.8%       
Liberal Party 139,980  9.5%       
Communist Reformist Party 73,928 5.0%

Everyone else far below the threshold

[politicus]

anyway, it won't be an issue in the foreseeable future...

In that case it will likely be never. As the study from the Black Sea University Foundation shows it is still possible now with a GDP per capita difference of 5:1 to do it and would lead to economic growth, but it gets increasingly harder as Moldova slides further and further behind the economic development in Romania.

[politicus]

Final result:

Party of Socialists 20.5% 25 (+21)   
Liberal Democratic Party 20.2% 23 (-9)   
Party of Communists  17.5% 21 (-17)   
Democratic Party of Moldova  15.8% 19 (+4)   
Liberal Party 9.7% 13 (+8)

Below threshold
      
Communist Reformist Party 4.9%
'Moldova's Choice - Customs Union' Electoral Bloc 3.5%   
Liberal Reformist Party  1,6% (-7)


A 55/46 majority to the "liberal" pro-Western bloc.

http://www.alegeri.md/en/

Turnout was 55.9%

[politicus]

So this election will probably just result in the 3 pro-EU parties forming a government, since they have 55 seats out of 101.

Just for shyts and giggles though, let's discuss some other options.

1) Why is everyone just assuming the Liberal Party will be on board with another coalition? They left the coalition before after all, with only the rump Liberal Reformist Party remaining behind. If the Liberals do indeed choose to stay out, the Communists could get brought in to replace them.

It was a pretty clear thrashing of the austerity parties with the Liberal Reformists getting annihilated and the LibDem losing 9. The Democrats picked up 4, but they are the most "moderate" of the austerity parties and its a net loss of 12 seats for the austerity-coalition.

Anti-Western/anti-austerrity gained 4

The pro-Western, anti-austerity Liberals gained 8

So the austerity parties are in the minority now..

Democrats/Liberals/Communists have 53 - anti-austerity moderates + soft austerity - in theory they could make a compromise and form a centrist "across the aisle" coalition.

Anyway, the Liberals are big winners and in a key position and I agree that the commentators are lazy when they assume they will just (re)join the two austerity parties. It will at least take some tough negotiations.

[politicus]

Looking at the seat distribution from alegri.md for the final result and it looks a bit off. They give the Socialists 25 seats for 20.5% and only 23 seats to the Liberal Democrats for 20.2%...  

[politicus]

As expected the three pro-European parties decided to form a government. A "group of experts" are working on a government program.

http://www.moldova.org/the-moldovan-pro-european-parties-agreed-on-the-majority-in-the-parliament/

[politicus]

Sorry to bump this, but it's interesting to me at least that the government formation took the better part of 3 months. The three pro-european parties did not end up forming a government together, so the new Moldovan prime minister is a certain Mr. Chiril Gaburici (LDP) - a 38 year old "unaffiliated" "techocrat".

The new government has the support of the LDP, the communists and the democrats.

Predictable, but depressing nonetheless...

So the two most anti-austerity parties (Socialists and Liberals) are in opposition, while the Communists are backing a technocratic pro-austerity government. Interesting.