Scottish independence referendum results thread (Sept 18, 2014)

[politicus]

A short resume of a poll from Lord Ashcroft Polls on why Scots voted no. The entire study can be found on http://lordashcroftpolls.com/.

All age groups below 55, except (interestingly) 18-24 (52% No), voted Yes. But pensioners voted No with 73% and there are a lot of old folks in Scotland .

Best Yes group 16-17 (71%), second best 25-34 (59%).

45% of Yes voters think there will be a new referendum within 5 years, 25% of No voters think  its settled forever. Talk about wishfull thinking!

47% of No voters mention economic issues as their most important reason to vote No.

Gender gap was only 3% point.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/7-fascinating-insights-into-why-scotland-voted-against-indep#1mgriif

[politicus]

"Once in a generation" should mean around 20 years, no? This seems like a reasonable time span. It would be a huge mistake for the independence camp to rush into a new referendum too soon (unless some dramatic event significantly and durably alters public opinion, but it's hard to imagine), it would probably backfire.

One event that could produce calls for another Scottish independence referendum would be if the UK votes to leave the EU in 2017/2018.

The Scots are generally pro-EU with the English being anti on average.

The irony here is that Alex Salmond spent years and years preaching about an independent Scotland within the EU and using the Euro as it's currency... until the financial crisis struck in 2008.

Even then they need to wait for enough old unionists to die to make a Yes likely, ten years should be minimum. With 55-64 being 43% for independence and 65%+ being only 29% pro-independence losing the oldest generation makes a big difference.

[politicus]

I think people here are distracted from the real issue

Which is that this is terrible news for Ed Miliband.

Nah, we are just discussing this VERY important issue in that other thread, ya know, and keeping this one for soothsaying based on miniscule subsamples and infallible intuition.

The biggest loser in all this though is Ed Miliband.

Really, dude? This is probably the exact same thing people would say if Yes had won (and the rationale in that case would make only marginally more sense).

The Scottish Yes is actually genuinely good news for Ed Miliband.

[politicus]

I would have to warn against treating survey subsamples as gospel truth, particularly when said samples are rather small.

The sample size for the 16-17 age group in the Ashcroft poll is 14.

Yeah, its useless regarding the smallest sub samples. The huge difference between the 16-18 being the most pro-independence and the 18-25 group being the third most pro-union (=strongest under 55) is striking and likely due to a fluke. Then you have 25-34 being  the second strongest Yes group. So a thorough study with an adequate sample of the attitudes of Scots aged 15-35 would be really interesting.

Despite small sub samples the data in the Ashcroft poll does support the general picture from previous polls.

A. Scots get more unionist the older they get from around 25 and upwards
B. 65+ are a lot more unionist than any other age group
C. Young people 18-25 are a little less supportive of independence than those aged 25-55.

Its also clear that a majority of Scots under 55-60 (impossible to draw the exact line) voted Yes.

So the interesting thing is if young Scots will keep being more pro-union than those born 1960-1990,  and if new generations will be less nationalist, so you get a Quebec style development where nationalism is "contained" in certain generations. I just find that very unlikely in the Scottish case - I think devo max will increase Scotlands feeling of being a separate nation and give appetite for more.

If new generations on the contrary follow the general pattern of the 25-55 old and get progressively more nationalist for each future generation then its obviously over for the unionist cause when the boomer generation dies off.

[politicus]

In an attempt to demonstrate an under-appreciated aspect to the results, he's the No percentage by local authority with those local authorities that deviated from the overall result by more than 10pts highlighted:

Orkney - 67.2
Scottish Borders - 66.6
Dumfries & Galloway - 65.7
Shetland - 63.7
East Renfrewshire - 63.2
East Lothian - 61.7
East Dunbartonshire - 61.2
Edinburgh - 61.1

(...)

North Lanarkshire - 48.9
Glasgow - 46.5
West Dunbartonshire - 46.0
Dundee - 42.7

As you can see, there weren't many.

Nah, I thought about that as well and was fx. genuinely surprised Shetland came as close to the national average as it did.

[politicus]

When can we expect to see maps by ward?

Never. Results were counted by authorities, not wards.

Afleitch mentioned he had a way to calculate it anyway, so maybe.

[politicus]

I would have to warn against treating survey subsamples as gospel truth, particularly when said samples are rather small.

The sample size for the 16-17 age group in the Ashcroft poll is 14.

Yeah, its useless regarding the smallest sub samples. The huge difference between the 16-18 being the most pro-independence and the 18-25 group being the third most pro-union (=strongest under 55) is striking and likely due to a fluke. Then you have 25-34 being  the second strongest Yes group. So a thorough study with an adequate sample of the attitudes of Scots aged 15-35 would be really interesting.

Despite small sub samples the data in the Ashcroft poll does support the general picture from previous polls.

A. Scots get more unionist the older they get from around 25 and upwards
B. 65+ are a lot more unionist than any other age group
C. Young people 18-25 are a little less supportive of independence than those aged 25-55.

Its also clear that a majority of Scots under 55-60 (impossible to draw the exact line) voted Yes.

So the interesting thing is if young Scots will keep being more pro-union than those born 1960-1990,  and if new generations will be less nationalist, so you get a Quebec style development where nationalism is "contained" in certain generations. I just find that very unlikely in the Scottish case - I think devo max will increase Scotlands feeling of being a separate nation and give appetite for more.

If new generations on the contrary follow the general pattern of the 25-55 old and get progressively more nationalist for each future generation then its obviously over for the unionist cause when the boomer generation dies off.

The declining North Sea oil and gas production will probably make the generational pattern immaterial. With max devo and the SPN holding the policy making reigns, I project that in a couple of decades Scotland will be fairly more dependent on transfers from the rest of UK. And if the Yes weren't really able to make a coherent economic case for independence now, it'll be much tougher with oil revenue being a fraction of what it is.

SNP (the other one made me think of ESPN )

This focus on oil as the only thing Scotland can build an economy on is misguided.

[politicus]

That's assuming status quo on several areas with a high level of uncertainty. Outside factors and internal identity shifts could - and likely will - change this picture quite a bit. If the Euro-zone stabilizes, the currency question, which was very important this time, will be out of the way and if Britain leaves the EU independence (=renewed membership) will become more attractive.

There has been significant growth in non-oil sectors (tourism, fish farming and the luxury end of the food sector etc.) and if SNP use the oil profits wisely to support reindustrialization that will become a factor too. While SNP are populists they are not idiots and they know they will need to produce sustainable growth in order to win.

Furthermore if more people starts identifying as Scottish rather than British this will make a Yes more likely regardless of the economy, so the unionist side still needs to convince young Scots of the attraction of being British.

In short: Its unlikely that reduced oil wealth in itself will stop the momentum of the independence movement. "Its Scotlands oil" was an important element in renewing Scottish nationalism, but the development it help set in motion isn't going to stop just because the oil dries up. Other factors will be more important.