Japan 2012 (user search)
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politicus
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« on: December 16, 2012, 12:21:55 PM »

So what is the likely result of this on the Japanse cente-left? Any mergers or alliances likely to occur?
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2012, 06:39:47 AM »

Based on personal tabulation of numbers in PR list I get

LDP        27.63%
NKP        11.83%  -> LDP+NKP 39.46%
JRP         20.83%
DPJ         16.00%
PNP          0.12% -> DPJ+PNP  16.12%
YP             8.72%
JCP           6.13%
Future      5.69%
SDP          2.36%
Daichi       0.58%
HRP          0.36%
NRP          0.22%

So LDP+NKP could not even cross 40%.  This is the worst showing by LDP+NKP in the PR vote since the 1993 system was established except for 2009.  

From a DPJ point of view, there is not time to lose.  They have to hope that the new LDP-NKP stumbles and the JRP starts falling apart.  Even if that were to take place the only way DPJ can take advantage of this is if it forms an alliance with itself, SDP and Future Party into a broad center-left block.  Only then can it take advantage of problems in LDP-NKP and JPR in the 2013 upper house elections.  Or else JRP might take the position of the main opposition party and DPJ will turn into another SDP. 


This enlights very well all the defects of FPTP system, a totally undemocratic representation.

Japan has a mixed FPTP-PR system.
Which is worse than pure FPTP, but it is still the FPTP part that ruins it.
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