2013 NYC Mayoral Race?

[patrick1]

But the outer borough white vote is not economically conservative or pro-business. It's a law-and-order vote. Quinn doesn't really have that image the way Giuliani did, and Bloomberg always had less dominance than Giuliani in the outer borough white vote as a result of being less law-and-order based (and, of course, being a Republican--not relevant in the Democratic primary). Unless Bloomberg outright endorses her (unlikely), I don't think she is particularly competitive among such voters (except perhaps in wealthy places like Mill Basin or Beechhurst that have relatively few Democrats to begin with) against Weiner, who also hits the right demographic buttons but actually represents such areas and has greater political ties to them.

That's a great point, I hadn't considered those important nuances like that before.  My one response, for what it's worth, is that Quinn has a certain potential ability to create a brand that plays well in Democratic Irish Brooklyn, even if she doesn't place first.  And, of course, if Weiner doesn't run, and other candidate match-up scenarios like that, things could be shaken up.

That the Hispanic and black leadership have had an informal agreement in the recent past is irrelevant to this election. That only arose out of a mutual desire to defeat Bloomberg.

Irrelevant?  I'm not so sure.  Less relevant, sure.  I imagine, given the current slate of candidates, that the Spanish vote will be viewed as up for grabs, and many candidates will attempt to compete for it.  I was vaguely involved in the AG race in 2010, and I can remember Schneiderman and Coffey competing heavily against each other for the Latino vote, Coffey penning op-eds in El Diario)

I took "the black vote" to include Harlem blacks. After all, I did specify whites in Manhattan for Quinn, not Manhattanites generally.

Sure, I was just mentioning other people that could be vote sinks in Manhattan proper

There are really not many Irish left in Brooklyn and many of those that remain wouldn't vote for Quinn- regardless of her surname.

[patrick1]

Yeah, there are pockets- Windsor Terrace and some in Carroll Gardens. Not really more than like 4% and even then you would have some older Catholics who wouldn't vote for a lesbian. The primaries should be interesting. I just hope Weiner is out- I saw him at a town hall and he was really nasty and condescending to a few questioners.

[patrick1]

Anyway, yeah, I think I'm wrong to think so strongly on the European-American type of vote anyhoo.  Probably more important to look at who will have the most money and who will have the big unions behind them and that sort of thing.

My moms union 1199 is very large. They have a lot of money, resources and influence.  Keep an eye on who they back.

[patrick1]

Bump.  So anyone care to break out their crystal ball?  My first impulse is that this Weiner stuff helps John Liu a bit.  Any other Jewish aspirants out there?