2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[patrick1]

Hahah, Lazio will stay in the race on the Conservative line (link).

So what? It doesn't really matter how Paladino and Lazio end up splitting their 40% 30% or so of the vote.

Fixed

Having both Paladino and Lazio on the ballot will probably bring Cuomo's share of the vote down a bit since both factions of the GOP will have their candidate to vote for.

  First off Cuomo was already going to get over 60% of the vote, rather easily.  Secondly, not sure how many people will even know Lazio is still going to be on the ballot.  Keep in mind he is completely broke.  

I voted for Lazio yesterday and will be voting for him in November. It is not for my like of Lazio, rather my extreme distaste for the other two.  I think this will have Conservative party ballot implications as well.

[patrick1]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Don't beleive anything that guy says. I long for that days when Alan Colmes actually called him out, now Hannity just hangs on his every word with no accountability.

Once again, NY-04 picks the worst possible choice to run against McCarthy. As such, McCarthy's stint in Congress will continue for sure.

Fran Becker has run before and he will put out good numbers in my neighborhood (he is from here).  He will also be able to capitalize on an enthusiasm gap that I think is palpable right now.  However, it the end this will not be able to put him over the top, only slightly closer.
I honestly think the other Republican fella was hurt by his youth- he looked about 15 in his campaign mailings.

[patrick1]

According to Dick Morris, Gillibrand's seat is now in play...

Don't beleive anything that guy says. I long for that days when Alan Colmes actually called him out, now Hannity just hangs on his every word with no accountability.

Once again, NY-04 picks the worst possible choice to run against McCarthy. As such, McCarthy's stint in Congress will continue for sure.

Fran Becker has run before and he will put out good numbers in my neighborhood (he is from here).  He will also be able to capitalize on an enthusiasm gap that I think is palpable right now.  However, it the end this will not be able to put him over the top, only slightly closer.
I honestly think the other Republican fella was hurt by his youth- he looked about 15 in his campaign mailings.

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Haha, yeah you are exactly right. I was thinking of Greg.  I kinda lump them all in together. His brother Hilary runs the largest real estate biz in town.  Those races were before I moved to this district.  I agree with you on the race,  I see it could be around 55-45.

[patrick1]

I don't think Fran has run before (unless he didn't make it out of the Primary in another year).  Are you sure you aren't thinking of his brother Greg, who ran against McCarthy in 98 and 2000??  As a side note his father Frank represented parts of what is now the 4th during parts of  the 50's and 60's (was the 3rd and 5th during that time)

Regardless, doesn't have a chance.  Probably does a bit better than Martins who lost 64-36, but won't get anywhere close to winning or making it competitive.

Tom Suozzi was a shoe-in for reelection, too.  Republicans didn't have a chance.  Ditto County Executive Spano in Westchester.  That county's too Democratic; a Republican couldn't possibly have won the seat.  Yet one did.  And the political environment is worse for Democrats now than it was a year ago.

Long Island Democrats should be very wary, lest they go the way of Tom Suozzi.  If they haven't learned that lesson, they deserve to lose.

Ehh, I doubt Becker will have the PBA shilling for him the way Managno did.  Also the 4th is quite a bit more Democratic than Nassau as a whole, and one key factor that wasn't present last year is the top of the ticket, which will be a Democratic landslide.

The landslide could also suppress turnout though. I don't see too many people enthusiastic about Cuomo.  That said I still don't think it is winnable.