Canada 2008: Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

lol. No way Ottawa South goes Conservative. Ever.

[Hatman 🍁]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

I will be making mine of course, and will do very well like I did in the provincial election

[Hatman 🍁]

im interested in what you experts think about the west nova riding.

It will be interesting to see whether the Atlantic Accord hits the Conservatives in NS.

do you think it will?

Yes, I think so.

[Hatman 🍁]

DemSpace prediction PDF:

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/seat-projections.pdf

For Ottawa, he's predicting a Tory gain in Ottawa-South and calling Ottawa-Vanier "too close to call". A lot of his other calls are also quite bad.

So, best not take this crap too seriously. Or so I hope. If Vanier is really too close too call, then the sh**t is going to hit the fan.

Does anyone here have seat-by-seat predictions?

The Election Prediction Project does - and they're usually pretty accurate.  As of right now, they're projecting Tories 111
Grits 71
Bloc 29
NDP 18
Others 2 (both independents)
Too Close 77

Election Prediction is the best for seat predictions.

After me, of course. I think I did better than them for the provincial election. Anyone remember that?

On a lighter side, I was more accurate than electionpredictions.org by 2 seats I got 93.5% correct. Had I not been such a partisan hack, I would have done better I also got one better than Democraticspace.org   I should start my own site!

Unfortunately, the map to prove it is wrong, but I do remember six of my mistakes were:
Ottawa Centre
Oshawa
York South-Weston
Hamilton Mountain
Sarnia-Lambton
Kitchener-Conestoga
Thornhill

I'm sure you can see the pattern I've learned my mistakes, I will be a lot less biased with my predictions in NDP marginals

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis for Ontario:

Safe Conservative
Durham
Whitby-Oshawa
Dufferin-Caledon
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
Niagara Falls
Niagara-West Glanbrook
Simcoe North
Simcoe-Grey
York-Simcoe
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Leeds-Grenville
Northumberland-Quinte West
Prince Edward-Hastings
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Ottawa West-Nepean
Carleton-Mississippi Mills
Nepean-Carleton
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Cambridge
Kitchener-Conestoga
Wellington-Halton Hills
Elgin-Middlesex-London
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Essex
Haldimand-Norfolk
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
Oxford
Perth-Wellington
Sarnia-Lambton
Parry Sound-Muskoka

Lean Conservative
Oshawa
St. Catharines
Barrie
Burlington
Peterborough
Ottawa-Orleans
Huron-Bruce (pick up)

Safe Liberal
Toronto Centre
Davenport
St. Paul's
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Don Valley East
Don Valley West
Eglinton-Lawrence
Willowdale
York Centre
York South-Weston
York West
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough Southwest
Scarborough-Agincourt
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Rouge River
Ajax-Pickering
Pickering-Scarborough East
Markham-Unionville
Oak Ridges-Markham
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
Vaughan
Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Brampton West
Brampton-Springdale
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Mississauga South
Mississauga-Brampton South
Mississauga-Erindale
Kingston and the Islands
Ottawa South
Ottawa-Vanier
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener-Waterloo
London North Centre
Nipissing-Timiskaming
Sudbury

Lean Liberal
Beaches-East York
Mississauga-Streetsville
Oakville
Welland
Guelph
Kenora

Safe NDP
Toronto-Danforth
Hamilton Centre
Ottawa Centre
Windsor West
Windsor-Tecumseh
Timmins-James Bay

Lean NDP
Trinity-Spadina
Sault Ste. Marie

Too close to call
Parkdale-High Park
Newmarket-Aurora
Halton
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
London-Fanshawe
London West
Brant
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
Nickel Belt
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd put Ottawa-Orleans in the tossup category.

Why?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec:

Safe Bloc
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Abitibi-Temiscamingue
Manicouagan
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere du Loup
Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques
Bas Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour
Joliette
Montcalm
Repentigny
Drummond
Sherbrooke
Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot
Beauharnois-Salaberry
Chambly-Borduas
Chateauguay-Saint Constant
Longeuil-Pierre Boucher
Saint Bruno-Saint Hubert
Saint Jean
Saint Lambert
Vercheres-Les Patriotes
Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
Laurentides-Labelle
Marc Aurele Fortin
Riviere des Mille Isles
Riviere du Nord
Terrebonne-Blainville
Alfred Pellan
Hochelaga
La Pointe de l'Ile
Laurier-Sainte Marie
Laval 

Lean Bloc
Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haut Cote Nord
Haute Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia
Berthier-Maskinonge
Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Safe Conservative
Jonquiere-Alma
Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
Beauport-Limoilou
Charlesbourg-Haute Saint Charles
Louis Hebert
Louis Saint Laurent
Beauce
Levis-Bellechasse
Lotbiniere-Chutes de la Chaudiere
Megantic-L'Erable
Pontiac

Safe Liberal
Bourassa
Honore-Mercier
Lac Saint Louis
LaSalle-Emard
Laval-Les Iles
Mount Royal
Notre Dame de Grace-Lachine
Pierrefonds-Dollard
Rosemont-La Petite Patrie
Saint Laurent-Cartierville
Saint Leonard-Saint Michel

Lean Liberal
Hull-Aylmer
Westmount-Ville Marie

Safe NDP
Outremont

Safe Independent
Portneuf-Jacques Cartier

Too close to call
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
Quebec
Gaspesie-Iles de la Madeleine
Saint Maurice-Champlain
Trois-Rivieres
Brome-Missisquoi
Compton-Stanstead
Richmond-Arthabaska
Shefford
Brossard-La Prairie
Gatineau
Ahuntsic
Jeanne-Le Ber
Papineau

[Hatman 🍁]

So, you're predicting about 16ish Tories in Quebec? More reasonable than the '38' I heard somebody say on the telly (though I think it was a Tory hack).

I'm unsure about your Gatineau call for the NDP.

Well, I have no idea about Gatineau, to be honest. I must admit, I'm only judging from the comments on electionpredictions.org. I should probably venture into the riding and see how the sign war is going.

My feeling is, with the NDP polling high in Quebec, it seems hard to not give them more than one seat. The Liberals have a no name candidate, so the federalist vote (which is high) will lean to Boivin.

[Hatman 🍁]

DS is still way inferior to electionpredictions.org. I laugh at some of the BS on his site. The simple fact that Ottawa South is in the TCTC (leaning Conservative) column is reason for this.

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta, just because.

Safe Conservative

Calgary Centre
Calgary Centre-North
Calgary East
Calgary Northeast
Calgary—Nose Hill
Calgary Southeast
Calgary Southwest
Calgary West
Crowfoot
Edmonton East
Edmonton—Leduc
Edmonton—Mill Woods—Beaumont
Edmonton—St. Albert
Edmonton—Sherwood Park
Edmonton—Spruce Grove
Fort McMurray—Athabasca
Lethbridge
Macleod
Medicine Hat
Peace River
Red Deer
Vegreville—Wainwright
Westlock—St. Paul
Wetaskiwin
Wild Rose
Yellowhead

Lean Conservative

Edmonton Centre
Edmonton—Strathcona

I totally agree with you on Alberta. I won't say anything on Ontario I don't know very well Ontario political life.

What about Quebec?

[Hatman 🍁]

Another bizarre scandal for the NDP in British Columbia (this one more of a "scandal"):

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080921.wndpapology0921/BNStory/politics/home?cid=al_gam_mostview

I kinda know Mr. West. He wanted me to make some maps for him in the past. :S

[Hatman 🍁]

I would argue that Juan de Fuca is not going NDP and Surrey North is staying put.

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of British Columbia

Safe Conservative
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
Delta-Richmond East
Fleetwood-Port Kells
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
Abbotsford
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
Langley
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
Cariboo-Prince George
Prince George-Peace River
Kelowna-Lake Country
Kootenay-Columbia
Okanagan-Coquihalla
Okanagan-Shuswap
Nanaimo-Alberni
Saanich-Gulf Islands

Lean Conservative
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country (pick up)
Vancouver Island North (pick up)

Safe NDP
Vancouver East
Surrey North
Skeena-Bulkley Valley
Nanaimo-Cowichan
Victoria

Lean NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster
British Columbia Southern Interior

Safe Liberal
Vancouver Centre
Vancouver Kingsway
Vancouver South

Lean Liberal
Vancouver Quadra

Too close to call
North Vancouver
Burnaby-Douglas
New Westminster-Coquitlam
Richmond
Newton-North Delta
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the Greens weren't even close to nominating candidates in every riding. Ha!

And correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like the NDP is the only party to have nominated candidates in every riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pundit's Guide says every party has nominated the number of candidates they committed too.

the Green's only committed to 305 seats? why are they sitting out of one in BC?

[Hatman 🍁]

Thibault wont be much of a factor, it'll be a Cons. - BQ race.

And those Nanos numbers have me drooling. How low can the Libs go?

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

And Gatineau..

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't bring myself to believe that 14% in Quebec is even possible for the Liberals, let alone the reality. Montreal will be fun if true.

They could just get totally annihilated everywhere except Montreal (as in, all fourth and fifth place finishes) instead of losing random ultrasafe seats on the island. But Hull and Westmount would be absolutely lost to the NDP if the NDP finished ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.

And Gatineau..

Gatineau is not a Liberal-held seat, but yes.

touche lol

[Hatman 🍁]

Big news, Julian West has withdrawn as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the deadline. That really blasts that race wide open for the Greens (Andrew Lewis running again) and the Liberals (running former BC Green Briony Penn) against incumbent Conservative Gary Lunn.

Also, for the first time maybe ever, certainly in a long time, no party is running a full slate of candidates.

That's rather unfortunate, he's been the candidate for quite some time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sherbrooke, Humber--St.Barbe--Baie Verte)
BQ: 75

Weird, Pundits Guide reports that there are Greenies there.

Elections Canada doesn't. Damn it. Elizabeth May is an awful leader.

the debates will prove this

[Hatman 🍁]

Numbers I found interesting:

EKOS indicates the following numbers for those under 25 years old:

Liberals: 26%
NDP: 21%
Cons: 21%
Greens: 20%
BQ: 13%

For shits and giggles, I added this into the H and K predictor:

Liberal: 109
BQ: 63
NDP: 60
Cons: 60
Greens: 16

[Hatman 🍁]

This is an interesting stat as well. Who would be your second choice?

The NDP leads all parties as 2nd choice. (Interesting for all those interested in IRV)

The Conservative vote would break:
Liberals: 19
NDP: 18
Green: 9
BQ: 4

Liberal vote would break:
NDP: 34
Green: 23
Conservatives: 17
BQ: 4

NDP vote would break:
Liberal: 30
Green: 24
Conservatives: 14 
BQ: 9

BQ vote would break
NDP: 26   
Liberal: 17
Green: 17
Cons: 14

Greens:
NDP: 26
Liberals: 26
Cons: 13
BQ: 8

[Hatman 🍁]

NCR includes Gatineau foo'

[Hatman 🍁]

Surrey North is staying put.

Why so?

It's a traditional NDP seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

fairly good numbers, I'd say.