Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Hatman 🍁]

I had my fifteen minutes of fame at the Saskatchewan Virtual Hearing today.

Zach Jeffries, a Saskatoon city councillor who hasn't updated his website in two years gave a shout out to RidingBuilder and TalkElections.

Nice! Any more details? Do people like the new Saskatoon Centre riding?

[Hatman 🍁]

Thank you for this. I want to know what to expect if and when I decide to do a presentation in Ottawa. Will you be attending other virtual hearings?

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting that they added Indigenous names to several ridings, but the Huron-Wendats in Wendake did not want their name added to their riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting that they added Indigenous names to several ridings, but the Huron-Wendats in Wendake did not want their name added to their riding.

I've seen speculation that they don't want to be associated with the Conservative MP.

Which is weird, because they still vote for him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting that they added Indigenous names to several ridings, but the Huron-Wendats in Wendake did not want their name added to their riding.

I've seen speculation that they don't want to be associated with the Conservative MP.

Which is weird, because they still vote for him.

Do they vote in elections? I thought the reason could be they don't recognize the political system or something of that nature.

Well, those on the reserve that do vote, vote Conservative. Though, roughly 20% of the reserve is White.

I've added again the population without the reserve and it,s the population of the riding. They count for zero. La Prairie has near 115,000. I've found a population number of 7,900 for Kahnawake on a Quebec government webpage. It would give near 123,000 people in the riding, probably the biggest in Quebec and the commission would say we need to decrease the population a little. If the reserve count for zerop person, why not add it to Châteauguay like in provincial riding. It would not change numbers.

FTR, JP has given Kahnawake a population of 10,600 in ridingbuilder.

[Hatman 🍁]

• include an alternative proposal for the Ottawa area, by returning Blossom Park to Ottawa South in exchange for attaching Blackburn Hamlet to Carleton riding

This is kind of awkward. Blossom Park is pretty separated from the rest of Carleton. I don't think  they'd go for it.

The Quebec commission seems to try to make riding population more equal within a region. Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean keep three ridings but boundaries are changed within the three. Some towns from Lac-Saint-Jean are shifted to Jonquière and I've read mayors of those communities are against the transfer.

I think I am too muc of a limitologist. I thought we should try and respect city limits or borough limits. When I look ar the proposed map I hyperventilate.

I don't know if it required to change Longueuil-Saint-Hubert. A small portion of Longueuil is put in Pierre-Boucher-Verchères.

The northwest portion of Longueuil—Saint-Hubert, a district with a 5.6% surplus, would be transferred to Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, an electoral district with a 5.5% deficit.

The variance was not big to begin with and Longueuil is already in three ridings so maybe move around parts between the three instead of putting a small part in a fourth one.

There are close up maps of Prévost and L'Assomption, two big metropolis!, to show the division of these places in two ridings.

There are a few streets of Terrebonne near Blainville that are transferred to Thésèse-de-Blainville. Maybe they feel closer to Blainville but if it's the case maybe add the streets not transfered just to the north of the streets that are.

I think the borough of Ville-Marie is going to be split in five ridings now. Hochelaga gains a few streets from laurier-Sainte-Marie. Westmount-NDG goes a few streets more east towards downtown. Outremont covers all Mount Royal (could be a good name if not already used) including the south side (towards downtown).

I don't know what is the reaction of Valcourt being moved to Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot. It's more Estrie than Montérégie. The town to the east is put in Richmond-Arthabaska. The commission could have proposed the name Saint-Hyacinthe-Acton. It seems to be the name people chose but legislation was not approved in time.

In looking at the Quebec proposal, the commission got pretty lazy tacking on the Golden Square Mile to Outremont. That area is separated from the rest of the riding by Mount Royal. Pretty dumb.

[Hatman 🍁]

The thing is, northern Quebec has a couple of remote regions which need to have under populated ridings, so I think you'd have to re-do the math excluding Abitibi-Temiscamingue, James Bay-Nunavik and Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean/Manicouagan.

[Hatman 🍁]

The thing is, northern Quebec has a couple of remote regions which need to have under populated ridings, so I think you'd have to re-do the math excluding Abitibi-Temiscamingue, James Bay-Nunavik and Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean/Manicouagan.

You're right.  It comes down to whether you think Saguenay/Lac Saint-Jean should be a protected area.  Here are the 'seat entitlements' based on 78 ridings:

Abitibi/Manicouagan -- 2.58
Saguenay/Lac Saint Jean -- 2.53
Charlevoix -- 0.26
Rest of North of the River -- 23.60
Montreal/Laval -- 22.41
Gaspesie/Iles-de-la-Madeleine/Bas-Saint-Laurent -- 2.65
Rest of South of the River -- 23.97


If you let Abitibi/Manicouagan and Saguenay/Lac Saint Jean each retain their three seats, and keep Charlevoix with their Capitale neighbours then dividing the rest of the province into 72 seats gives you these numbers:

Rest of the North (incl. Charlevoix) - 23.57, Montreal/Laval - 22.14, South - 26.29  (Total 72)

It would make sense for the area south of the St. Lawrence to lose a riding.


However, if you think les bleuets have had it too good for too long, and admit Charlevoix to their little club, then the numbers shift slightly:

Rest of the North - 23.39, Montreal/Laval - 22.22, South - 26.39  (Total 72)

It becomes a toss-up.


If you think Gaspesie/Iles-de-la-Madeleine/Bas-Saint-Laurent should be allowed to keep three seats, along with Abitibi/Manicouagan and Saguenay/Lac Saint Jean (au revoir, Charlevoix!), then the rest of Quebec would have 69 seats to divide amongst themselves:

Rest of the North  (incl. Charlevoix) - 23.44, Montreal/Laval - 22.01, Rest of the South - 23.55  (Total 69)

And the southern riding magically reappears!

I think there's less of a case of Gaspesie/Iles-de-la-Madeleine/Bas-Saint-Laurent being special enough for protection vs the more remote Abitibi-Temiscamingue and Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean areas.

Charlevoix is an interesting case, because while it's in the Capitale-Nationale region, it is somewhat remote, and is in a transitional area between Quebec City and parts beyond. It was also lumped in with the Haute-Côte-Nord area before the 2012 redistribution, but much of its population base was still in Quebec City.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

Traditions are made to be broken! I just feel there would be more of a "community of interest" if there was an inner city St. John's seat plus a donut like seat that was more St. John's suburbs, exurbs and some of rural Avalon.

I think any donut riding would look very ugly.

Also, tradition. St. John's has always been split in two.

It would also mess with the electoral tradition of the two ridings, which isn't an iron rule that shall never be broken, but it's better to leave it intact. SJE isn't naturally that much more of an NDP seat than SJS-MP (infact I think SJE is higher-income, which usually means less NDP support, but not in this case because of the Jack Harris machine dating back to the 80s).

Historically, the NDP has done better provincially in the city's easy end, but that appears to no longer be the case. The NDP's only riding in the city is now in St. John's South-Mt Pearl.

The Ontario Commission proposals were published on August 6.

Or so says the website: https://redecoupage-redistribution-2022.ca/com/on/index_e.aspx

You had me all excited for a moment!

[Hatman 🍁]

Historically, the NDP has done better provincially in the city's easy end, but that appears to no longer be the case. The NDP's only riding in the city is now in St. John's South-Mt Pearl.

Are you sure about that? St. John's Centre looks to me to be split between St. John's East and St. John's South-Mt Pearl

There is a grand total of 2 polls in St. John's East.

[Hatman 🍁]

I plan on writing a rather lengthy submission. I have many issues with the map.

[Hatman 🍁]

From what I can remember, commissions usually make outrageous maps on their first proposal, and then curb their enthusiasm after public outcry.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm working on a proposal to the commission. I will probably do a write up of the entire province, but I'm starting with Ottawa. Here is my proposed map. I decided to go with a "least change" map, but kept within their desired 10% of the quotient:



For Eastern Ontario, I am proposing just three changes from the current map:

Smiths Falls to Leeds-Grenville
Glengarry North to Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry (as per the commission)
Kingston east of the Great Cataraqui River and Amherst Island to Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston
(oh, and the western border of Prescott-Russell is shifted as per the above map)

Admittedly, Eastern Ontario's ridings are undersized versus Ottawa's being oversized, but they're all within 10% of the quotient!

[Hatman 🍁]

You'll have to use ridingbuilder just like everybody else.

[Hatman 🍁]

You'll have to use ridingbuilder just like everybody else.

Do you have link to it?

http://election-atlas.ca/ridingbuilder/

[Hatman 🍁]

Changes to the London-area on my Ontario proposal.

https://bit.ly/Canada343

This may be the best we can do in London, but that Perth-London North finger is bugging me.

[Hatman 🍁]

Great trivia question!

Which place in Southern Ontario votes in one riding in federal elections, and a different riding in provincial elections?

The answer is in the second-last post on page 21.

This is upsetting

[Hatman 🍁]

This is worse IMO, Carleton looks like a monstrosity.

[Hatman 🍁]

Option A is definitely better. And we get the return of skinny Peterborough!

[Hatman 🍁]

I like this map better, but I prefer your original Georgina-Stouffville configuration.

[Hatman 🍁]

Once more, I'm sending out the Hat-signal.  Hatman, Rideau City needs your help!

• Carleton -- 113,701
• Kanata--Carleton -- 122,060
• Lanark--Stittsville -- 119,482
• Nepean--Barrhaven -- 121,986
• Ottawa Centre -- 118,200
• Ottawa South -- 114,298
• Ottawa West--Nepean -- 116,409

I dunno, it's not as good as the map we came out with earlier, or my "least change" proposal. It's not terrible; at least it doesn't split communities up.

[Hatman 🍁]

How's this for an arrangement in the York region?



Georgina--Stouffville - 107,567
Newmarket--East Gwilimbury - 112,749
Aurora--Oak Ridges - 116,652
Vaughan--King - 113,325
Vaughan--Woodbridge - 115,957
Thornhill--Concord - 121,154
Richmond Hill - 117,261
Markham--Thornhill - 120,204
Markham East - 123,377
Markham--Unionville - 125,088

Reasonably wide variation in electorates, but it's all within 10% and the northern parts of York are growing at a rate of knots so it should work out.

The Jewish community won't be happy with you splitting Thornhill in half.

[Hatman 🍁]

Georgina-King makes about as much sense as the current Carleton district or Flamborough-Glanbrook. In that there is a COI holding them together, but they are ugly-a*s districts.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thoughts on this London area map?