Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Hatman 🍁]

Only one change in Nova Scotia, they're changing Pictou—Eastern Shore back to Central Nova. Sad!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ruby Sahota, MP (Lib - Brampton North) wants to keep the neighbourhood of Springdale together in one riding.  Here's a plan that also keeps Bramalea together, but splits Brampton East and makes for an odd-looking new seat of Brampton North--Gore--Mayfield.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

This is awful.

I'm not sure what MP Peter Fragiskatos (Lib - London North Centre) is going to say tomorrow at the PROC Committee, but here's a plan to keep London North Centre (more or less) intact.


https://bit.ly/Canada343

Not bad, but regrettable how populous the three London ridings are.

[Hatman 🍁]

Did the commission ever give a reason for putting Kapuskasing before Timmins in that proposed riding name?  Timmins is a city of 40k+ people, Kapuskasing has 8k? 

I don't think so; maybe to make it alphabetical? I did complain about these things relentlessly in my submission, but I don't think they took any of my suggestions to heart.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec released their final map yesterday

They made the following changes from the report:

-Beauharnois—Soulanges renamed Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon
-Bécancour—Saurel—Odanak renamed Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak and reverts to the current borders of the Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel riding.
-Alma is moved from Jonquière—Alma to Chicoutimi—Le Fjord and is traded for a bunch of small municipalities, also involves Lac-Saint-Jean. Jonquière—Alma is renamed back to Jonquière.
-Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Uapashke renamed Côte-Nord—Kawawachikamach—Nitassinan
-Compton—Stanstead reverts to nearly its current borders, save for taking one neighbourhood from Sherbrooke
-Dorval—Lachine renamed to its current name of Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle
-Hochelaga renamed Hochelaga—Rosemont-Est (wonder if we'll get an English translation)
-LaSalle—Verdun renamed to its current name of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
-Mégantic—L'Érable gains back some territory and is renamed Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière
-Montarville renamed Mont-Saint-Bruno—L'Acadie
-Montmagny—Témiscouata—Kataskomiq renamed Côte-du-Sud—Rivière-du-Loup—Kataskomiq—Témiscouata

So, unfortunately a few quadruple barrelled names. Such is Quebec. Better than naming them after people, I guess.

[Hatman 🍁]

People are criticizing that change as a Liberal gerrymander, as it moves the NDP friendly Marpole area into Richmond.

Overall the BC map is the worst of all the commissions. Absolute sh*t. Lots of crossing major waterways and splitting municipalities, and there's that horrendous looking Kelowna riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Ontario commission also made a weird boundary choice with the new New Tecumseth-Gwillimbury riding. They made a last minute decision to remove a small part of King Twp that was in the riding to keep all of King in one riding. The result though, was basically dividing the riding into two parts, with no transportation connections between them. On paper it looks like they're connected, but the Holland River divides the two parts. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Do we know when we'll be getting the census profiles for the new redistributed ridings?

The redistribution will not be complete until September 2023, but it is based on data from the 2021 Canadian census, so I assume the census profiles will be available when the redistribution is complete?

It is already complete, actually - though it still has to pass through Parliament.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada has laws in place to ensure 'fair' representation for people living in smaller provinces or hard to reach areas.

That doesn't explain Quebec's overrepresentation compared to Alberta and BC despite being larger, though.

The squeaky wheel gets the grease

[Hatman 🍁]

The idea is not such a terrible one, but you have to remember each commission is independent from one another. While commissions in SK and ON have pushed for Indigenous seats, the ones in Quebec have not done so. I suppose it would take the Inuit and the Cree to come together and push for one, but as other have said, they have competing interests.

[Hatman 🍁]

45K is on the small end for ridings for sure, but because the area is so large geographically, one could definitely make the argument that Nord-du-Quebec should be its own riding. The cases in SK, ON and Labrador could be cited in the process.

I think it might take Abitibi's population to shrink to the point where it wouldn't be so overpopulated if your removed Nord-du-Quebec though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hey, if we had MMP, we could have an insanely mal-apportioned house, because theoretically, the top up seats would balance things out.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been playing around with Riding Builder. How bad is it to use usual population thresholds in Northern Ontario? How much of the huge ridings up there is a result of indigenous representation considerations vs. overrepresenting peripheral regions?

Any reduction in seats results in a lot of protestation, so it's best to avoid unless necessary.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been playing around with Riding Builder. How bad is it to use usual population thresholds in Northern Ontario? How much of the huge ridings up there is a result of indigenous representation considerations vs. overrepresenting peripheral regions?

Any reduction in seats results in a lot of protestation, so it's best to avoid unless necessary.

Easier to add seats than deduct them.

Which is exactly what Harper did in the 2012 redistribution. The result was status quo in Northern Ontario.