Ottawa Centre: Voted NDP last time because of the popularity of former leader Ed Broadbent. Will possibly switch over to the Liberals, which are traditionally strong in this riding, however it may be close.
Will be a hell of a lot closer than last time (Broadbent thumped Mahoney by over 6000 votes) but the NDP should *just* about hang on; the civil service unions give the NDP a good base here (see also: Victoria) and I can't see many voters in Ontario switching *to* the Liberals; turnout could be well down on 2004. And while the Liberals have a long history here federal, at provincial level the NDP used to have an MPP from the area until the '90's meltdown part one (1995).
Unfortunately, I will have to disagree with you. Mahoney is a strong candidate, and will win it in the end.
Not sure about this; if things go bad for the Liberals it could be very close... but... at the same time, "star" candidates often fail to make much of a difference to the final tally. But not always.
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Plus, a lot of the NDP vote last time was because the candidate was a "star", Monia Mazigh, plus factor in the unpopularity of Dalton McGuinty at the time, couldn't have helped his brother. I expect a bit of a rebound, enough to keep this Liberal
Tories should gain this, if (and it might be a big if) the pro-Tory swing in Eastern Ontario in general and suburban Ottawa that began in the late '90's continues. I think either a pretty solid (say... over 2000 votes at least) win for the Tory or a very tight finish between the two parties...
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I agree, although it should be noted that only part of this riding is "suburban", at least using my defenition. The rest is inner-suburban generally with many urban areas too.
Demographic changes had been weakingly the Liberal hold here for years (an ominous warning signal happend in the 1999 provincial election when the Tories gained the seat in a big upset. And by a big margin too; even though they lost it in 2003 the warning was pretty clear) and had it not been for those astonishingly stupid remarks on bilingualism by a certain Tory MP, the Tories would have certainly picked this one up. Thing is, this time round they don't have the strong candidate they did last election and most of thier Ottawa efforts are likely to be concentrated in Ottawa West-Nepean. Could be close, but for now the Liberals are favourites.
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Who knows. It's a real toss up in my books
Gatineau was extremely (nay, shockingly) close last election. Just about everyone assumed it was safe as houses, but the BQ slashed the Liberal majority to below the crucial 1000 mark (the notional majority from 2000 was over 10,000) and are running the same candidate again. Initially looks like it could be a straightforward BQ gain, but several things seem to get in the way of that; in 2004 Gatineau was an open seat and first term incumbents can *usually* count on a little bounce in their direction, and secondly, the overall outcome in Quebec is very uncertain. Sure, the BQ are polling at around 58% (!) in most regional breakdowns, but the party (and seperatism in general) has a long history of overperforming in polls and the Liberals will be able to panic enough NDP and Tory leaners into voting for them by polling day (they always do). Also... the most reliable (IIRC) Quebec pollster, Leger,'s most recent poll had them on 48%. That poll is a month old now, and it'll be interesting to see a more recent one.
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There may be a glass ceiling of sorts in Gatineau, due to its federalist nature. I am thinking a lot of the gains in the polls for the BQ has been in already traditional separatist ridings, and not in federalist ridings like Gatineau. Although, the margin was so small, it wont take much.
