Canada 2006: Predictions & Prediction-Aiding-Maps thread

[Hatman 🍁]

whats the blue collar thing a measure of exactly? What jobs they do?

[Hatman 🍁]

While we're talking about Newfoundland, don't forget this map

[Hatman 🍁]

Southern Ontario (2004)

[Hatman 🍁]

Al: The Ottawa suburbs are rich because of the high tech sector. At least in the west end like Nepean and Kanata. The more francophone areas have more civil servant jobs because for the most part, you need to know French to have a government job. The civil service is well paying too though.

Just out of interest to maybe you Al:

[Hatman 🍁]

Al: The Ottawa suburbs are rich because of the high tech sector. At least in the west end like Nepean and Kanata.

Makes sense actually

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Also makes sense

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So there's a cluster in the inner-northeastern area (that's the Vanier riding isn't it?) and lower densities further east, until the extreme eastern edge of the city. I know that east of Ottawa is very Francophone, so it'd be interesting to know whether or not that concentration is due to people from that area moving to Ottawa, or people from the Francophone concentration in Ottawa moving out to the area.

As far as I know, the French have always lived in Vanier and Cumberland. Orleans is a newish susburb, so the French have moved there, but I am fairly certain French people were the original settlers to the Orleans area too. All the rural area east of the city all the way to the Quebec border is fairly french, mainly in Presscott and Russell Counties.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP % in Southern Ontario:

[Hatman 🍁]

Cool map
The relatively high numbers in rural Central Ontario are intriguing...

Have you seen the 1990 provincial map? The NDP was able to sweep much of central Ontario

[Hatman 🍁]

Windsor is NDP right,  I was there last night but didn't see any signs of an election.

Yes, federally anyways.

I haven't seen very many signs here either. The NDP never got back to me when I called them about putting up signs.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm going to do some analyses of some of Ontario's census divisions. This is unique, as most people focus on ridings. Census divisions are like counties (and some of them are).

I'll start with the District of Algoma

2004 map:



Algoma is divided into 1 and a half ridings. The full riding is Sault Ste. Marie and the partial is Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing. The border between the two is the thick black line.

Sault Ste. Marie voted NDP while A-M-K voted Liberal.

Sault Ste Marie riding may have voted NDP, but the city which makes up probably 75% of the riding voted Liberal by about 400 votes. This was the only municipality in the riding that voted Liberal. The rest voted NDP or Conservative. The NDP areas were concentrated in the Sault area, while the Conservatives were concentrated along the north shore region, which extends into the neighbouring AMK riding and ends just before Blind River. East of Blind River is primarily Liberal. Much of the north of Algoma is NDP, but the Liberals won Dubreuville and Wawa (Michipicoten Township).

Interestingly, indian reserves in the SSM riding voted overwhelmingly NDP, while in AMK, they voted overwhelmingly Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Census division thing is great So, would Martin have won Soo on the previous boundaries?

Yes he would have, as the riding was just the city of SSM. Finally, some gerrymandering in favour of the NDP! I found this bit of information very interesting. I had thought the Soo would have voted NDP, but this was not true. Also of note, Pat Martin who is the NDP MP was a former MPP, but lost in 2003 in the riding which was just Sault Ste. Marie. It was close too. So, not much has changed in the city itself

Have you seen the 1990 provincial map?

Yep

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Hmm... that's true. And not always by same margins; there was a big majority in the provincial riding that made up most of what is now Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock. I suppose that demographically it's not that bad for the NDP; taking a wild guess, do they just lack the organisation?

I would imagine it is because the area is pretty socially conservative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brant County



Brant County is initself an enitre riding. In Brant, which voted Liberal, we see an obvious urban/rural split. It's unfortunate that all of rural brant county is now in the same municipality, because I cant show any more detail than I have for rural Brant. As for Brantford, it was a split between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Liberals in the clear lead  though. Out in the Six Nations reserve, it voted Liberal fairly strongly, with the NDP in second  while the New Credit reserve voted NDP by one vote. Both reserves are in reality have the county boundary cutting through them, but for purposes of this map, I have included them in Brant County for their entirety, as they are both in the Brant riding in their entirety.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brant County is initself an enitre riding. In Brant, which voted Liberal, we see an obvious urban/rural split. It's unfortunate that all of rural brant county is now in the same municipality, because I cant show any more detail than I have for rural Brant. As for Brantford, it was a split between the NDP and the Liberals, with the Liberals in the clear lead  though. Out in the Six Nations reserve, it voted Liberal fairly strongly, with the NDP in second  while the New Credit reserve voted NDP by one vote. Both reserves are in reality have the county boundary cutting through them, but for purposes of this map, I have included them in Brant County for their entirety, as they are both in the Brant riding in their entirety.

Very interesting; Brant is probably one of the most unpredictable ridings of this election methinks. How'd the Liberals and NDP do in the rural municipality?

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" had some polls where the NDP won, and some where the Liberals won, but most went Conservative. If only I knew where the polls were

As for your map, it is interesting to see the complete absence of blue collar workers in Ottawa Makes complete sense if you think about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

presenting my 3 colour map:



I'm willing to explain the key if it is confusing.

[Hatman 🍁]

three-ways.

That might be something you see at a gay pride parade too

[Hatman 🍁]

What are your abbreviations again?

[Hatman 🍁]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

[Hatman 🍁]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

The worst part is there are no parties in municipal elections

[Hatman 🍁]

The "rural municipality", which is called the "City of Brant County" ...

Is Ontario ever going to achieve some sanity (or at least stability) in what it calls its first-order subdivisions?

I wish. I of course blame Mike Harris.

You guys have an even crazier local government setup than us!

The worst part is there are no parties in municipal elections

By law?

Heavens no, just by custom I guess. Well, there might be some sort of a law, actually. I do know the NDP tried to form a party in Toronto. You can find more about them here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metro_NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Lower Mainland triangle map

[Hatman 🍁]

My predictions for notable ridings:

Atlantic Canada

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour:       Liberal hold
Kings-Hants:            Liberal hold
South Shore-St. Margaret's:      Conservative hold
West Nova:            Liberal hold
Fredericton:            Liberal hold
Madawaska-Restigouche:         Liberal hold
Saint John:            Liberal hold
Tobique-Mactaquac:         Liberal hold
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe:      Liberal hold

Result: No change

Quebec
Saint-Maurice-Champlain:       BQ hold
Beauce:               BQ pick-up
Brome-Missisquoi:         BQ pick-up
Beauharnois-Salaberry:         BQ hold
Brossard-La Prairie:         Liberal hold
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant:      BQ hold
Vercheres-Les Patriotes:      BQ hold
Honore-Mercier:            Liberal hold
Ahuntsic:            BQ pick-up
Jeanne-Le Ber:            BQ pick-up
Laval-Les Iles:            Liberal hold
Outremont:            Liberal hold
Papineau:            BQ pick-up
Gatineau:            Liberal hold
Louis-Saint-Laurent:         BQ hold
Pontiac:            Liberal hold
Vaudreuil-Soulanges:         BQ hold
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord:         BQ hold

Result:
BQ - 59
Liberals - 16

Ontario
Ottawa Centre:            Liberal pick-up
Ottawa West-Nepean:         Conservative pick-up
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell:      Liberal hold
Peterborough:             Liberal hold
Simcoe North:            Conservative pick-up
Etobicoke-Lakeshore:         Liberal hold
Mississauga-Erindale:         Liberal hold
Hamilton Mountain:         NDP pick-up
Chatham-Kent-Essex:         Conservative pick-up
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex:         Conservative pick-up
London-Fanshawe:         Liberal hold
Beaches-East York:         Liberal hold
Parkdale-High Park:         Liberal hold
Trinity-Spadina:         NDP pick-up
Ancaster-Dundas-Flaborough-Westdale:    Liberal hold
Burlington:            Liberal hold
Halton:               Liberal hold
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek:      NDP pick-up
Hamilton Mountain:         NDP pick-up
Niagara Falls:            Conservative hold
Newmarket-Aurora:         Liberal pick-up (from last election)
Niagara West-Glanbrook:         Conservative hold
Oshawa:               NDP pick-up
St. Catharines:            Liberal hold
Whitby-Oshawa:            Liberal hold
Northumberland-Quinte West      Conservative pick-up
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry      Conservative hold
Kenora:               Liberal hold
Nickel Belt:            Liberal hold
Nipissing-Timiskaming:         Liberal hold
Parry Sound-Muskoka:         Liberal hold
Timmins-James Bay:         NDP hold
Brant:               Liberal hold
Haldimand-Norfolk:         Conservative hold
Cambridge:            Conservative hold   
Essex:               Conservative hold
Kitchener-Conestoaga:         Liberal hold
London West:            Liberal hold
Sarnia-Lambton:            Liberal hold
Barrie:               Liberal hold

Results:
Liberal 67
NDP 11
Cons 28

Prairies:
Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia:   Conservative hold
Churchill:            Liberal pick-up
Kildonan-St. Paul:         Conservative hold
Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River:   Conservative hold
Palliser:            Conservative hold
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre:       Conservative hold
Regina-Qu'Appelle:         NDP pick-up
Saskatoon-Humboldt:         Conservative hold
Peace River:            Conservative hold
Westlock-St. Paul:         Conservative hold
Wetaskiwin:            Conservative hold
Edmonton-Millwoods-Beaumont:      Conservative pick-up
Edmonton Centre:         Liberal hold
Edmonton-Strathcona:         Conservative hold

Result: no change

British Columbia & the North
Richmond:            Liberal hold
British Columbia Southern Interior:   NDP pick-up
Kelowna-Lake Country:         Conservative hold
Okanagan-Shuswap:         Conservative hold
Abbotsford:             Conservative hold
Newton-North Delta:         NDP pick-up
Surrey North:            NDP pick-up
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country: Conservative hold
Victoria:            NDP pick-up
Vancouver Centre:         NDP pick-up
Vancouver-Kingsway:         Liberal hold
Burnaby-New Westminster:      NDP hold
Fleetwood-Port Kells:         Conservative hold
New Westminster-Coquitlam:      NDP pick-up
North Vancouver:         Liberal hold
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam:   Conservative hold
Skeena-Bulkley Valley:         NDP hold
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca:         Liberal hold
Nanaimo-Alberni:         Conservative hold
Saanich-Gulf Islands:         Conservative hold
Vancouver Island North:         NDP pick-up
Northwest Territories:         NDP pick-up

Results:
NDP 13
Cons 18
Liberal 8

TOTAL:
Liberal: 119
Cons: 99
NDP: 31
BQ: 59

[Hatman 🍁]

My riding... (2004)

[Hatman 🍁]

What's with the void precinct?

No one lived there last election, however there is a new development there for this election. I guess they were just preparing.