2017 British Columbia election

[Hatman 🍁]

Can we call it an Ireland coalition?

[Hatman 🍁]

How does 44/43 last 4 years?

It won't.

[Hatman 🍁]

How does 44/43 last 4 years?

It won't.

Saskatchewan NDP made 30-28 last for four years.

Ok, but one by-election and this whole government could come topling down. Actually, what would happen if the Liberals win a by-election in an NDP or Green seat? Would the Lt Governor call on the Liberals to form government, or would a snap election happen? The poor people in whatever  riding that would be...

Reminds me of the Kitchener-Waterloo by-election we had a few years ago which could have turned the Liberal minority in Queen's Park to a majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn't it a constitutional convention? Meaning breaking it would be unconstitutional? Oy vey!

[Hatman 🍁]

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.

We're also assuming that the referendum with have FPTP as an option. If the BCNDP-Greens play this right, and they should! this is the best chance for this, the referendum will be one of what other option do you support. The question should be which system should BC move to? make this a choice between say made in BC versions of MMP and STV (STV has received over 57% in 2005 and 40% in 2009 referendums). This guarantees the province moves to a form of PR. Both parties want this, so i expect something to happen soon as soon as Clark resigns or is defeated.

Putting FPTP on the ballot was what we did in Ontario in 2007, and it won, so for it to lose, it should probably be listed second on the ballot, and hopefully without a mention of it being the "current system".

If it directly specifies on the ballot that PR would mean each party gets the same proportion of seats as their vote share, then this is the way to go.

Linking it with the municipal elections might be a bad idea, as the electorate in municipal elections skews towards the kinds of people who might be opposed to electoral reform. Having a stand alone referendum is the best way of having it pass.

[Hatman 🍁]

If the speaker's role is more defined by convention, and not by the constitution, then what is to stop the speaker from just siding with the government? Would there be much public outcry? I doubt anyone would care.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?

[Hatman 🍁]

What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?

Yes, unlimited fundraising creating conflicts of interest, shrug.  But, DON'T YOU DARE TURN THE SPEAKER INTO A PARTISAN POSITION!  

I'm sure the right wing OUTRAGE! machine will make this out to be the biggest scandal of all time, but  unlike they and the political scientists all rapped up in their concerns about historical conventions, I think most fair minded people will see a difference between a 'partisan' Speaker voting to break ties in favor of their government, and a partisan Speaker making partisan legislative rulings in favor of their government.

One would hope so, but I'm worried the Liberals are going to use this to whip up some outrage from the public, most of whom would have had no prior knowledge of the speaker's role to begin with.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not a single Liberals will take the job, they've already said as much.

Anyways, the pundit class' heads would explode if the NDP installed a speaker and broke convention. Will anyone other than them care?

[Hatman 🍁]

what is the point of picking a cabinet that will serve for 2 weeks?

[Hatman 🍁]

This is all so stupid a ridiculous. Why don't all the regular pundits realize this? I'd rather some sort of grand coalition with Clark as Premier than to head to the polls again because Andrew Coyne says so.

[Hatman 🍁]

No surprise. The question is if he stays on after the government is voted out.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mason: difficult to imagine Guichon ignoring Clark's advice.

We must have read a different article: "The eyes of the province, and country, now turn on Ms. Guichon. If she doesn’t give the NDP a chance to govern with a one-seat majority, something that has managed to work elsewhere in Canada for as many as three years, she will face enormous criticism.

She will be seen as coming down on the side of a government that wants an election, rather than relinquish power. The stakes couldn’t be any higher."

RB loves to put his own spin on things, for some reason and doesn't address it when called out on it. *shrugs shoulders*.

Anyways, if Guichon says an election must be called, it would go against constitution precedent which states that the LG or GG has to give the other party leader a chance to be government. If that fails, then an election should be called.  For the LG to call for an election would be acting in a partisan matter. Unlike the speaker, the LG is not accountable to the public (as she is unelected) so has not legitimacy to go against precedent.

[Hatman 🍁]

My spin is that Clark should explicitly ask for dissolution, as Harper did for prorogation, and quit the word games.

Prorogation and dissolution are two different things though. Prorogation does not entail having 2 elections in one calendar year.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if Clark asked for a dissolution most observers felt the LG would refuse since having a second election in three months is nuts. Insightswest has a poll that says the NDP would win a snap election 41-36 with the Greens at 21

Mainstreet shows the opposite numbers. I worry that a snap election will have lower turnout, helping the Liberals.

If there is a snap election, I would hope that the NDP and Greens campaign together and not run candidates against each other. Use the election as a referendum on their agreement.

I would also hope that if Lt Gov be fired if she chooses another election. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently everyone and their dog has an opinion on what's going to happen.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

[Hatman 🍁]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

[Hatman 🍁]

Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle happened, the jig was up.

Reminds me of when Dalton McGuinty - who had come 1 seat away from winning a majority in 2011 - appointed Elizabeth Witmer to head the WSIB. Witmer was probably the only Tory to represent an otherwise Liberal seat (she had won it because she was quite popular), so she was a good choice for McGuinty to trigger a by-election to get a majority. Of course the plan backfired, and the NDP won the seat, with the Liberals finishing third.

Will Horgan try to appoint Liberal MLAs to comfy government jobs? Would be a big risk, I don't think they could win any current Liberal seats in a by-election. Perhaps if they could convince the Greens to not also run.

[Hatman 🍁]

Atlin should never have been a separate riding in the first place. It's basically the Yukon up there anyways, and it has the floor crossing legacy to prove it.

Clark will probably stay on as leader, due to the instability. It doesn't appear that her approval ratings have taken a large hit from all of this. BC is too polarized for that. If she cooperates too much with the government (not likely), I can see a resurgence of the Conservative Party in BC, with some floor crossing.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's not related to the election, but do Canadians actually follow British pronunciation and pronounce Lieutenant with an "f"? I saw a video of Christy Clark and I always that that pronunciation was strictly British.

Yes we do. At least, we're supposed to. It's such a rarely used word that most people don't pronounce it properly.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.

Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? I just created my own crosstabs!