2017 British Columbia election

[Hatman 🍁]

Another note; 3 of the 4 NDP losses; Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley and Skeena are all riding's where the incumbent NDP MLA did not run again. Food for though, would the NDP have held these had the incumbents run again?

Probably. Except for the 2001 Liberal landslide, the NDP had held all three seats since 1991.

[Hatman 🍁]

obligatory map

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll hopefully make some swing maps at some point, but in the meantime, this is a pretty interesting chart:



Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?

ETA: Looks like a lot of that swing may have come from the Conservatives

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.

Says the only Hamon voter in all of France...

I'd argue there's less of a difference between the NDP and the Greens than between Hamon and Melanchon!

Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?

Richmond is heavily, heavily Chinese and even though in terms of average income its no richer than Surrey (which is heavily South Asian and is more NDP-friendly) it has traditionally been an NDP dead zone because the NDP didn't have much support in the Chinese community. If you look at household income and being a inner suburb of Vancouver, were it not for the Chinese factor, Richmong OUGHT to be as NDP-friendly as Surrey! so the gains there are a bit of a reversion to the mean

That seems to have changed this time. If you look at how the NDP picked up Fraserview and Burnaby North (both of which have large Chinese populations) and gained so much ground in all four Richmond seats, I suspect that as the Chinese community matures and assimilates politically it is starting to hedge its bets politically and the taboo on voting NDP is wearing off. Now that the NDP has elected four Chinese-Canadian MLAs, I expect the NDP to target Richmond heavily next time and to have much more credibility in that community.

Well yes, obviously the Chinese vote is shifting, which I find very interesting. I know they have a populist streak, remember how much they voted against the HST in the referendum?

One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

Indeed, many CATI polls do not use cell sample, and people with landlines are going to skew heavily Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it possible that some of the more right wing members of the Liberal caucus may make things difficult vis-a-vis working with the Greens?

[Hatman 🍁]

Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

Well I'm shocked.

Can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. It should be though. I am not shocked in the least.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

The funny thing is, those three items could easily be in an NDP platform.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

The funny thing is, those three items could easily be in an NDP platform.

Banning corporate and union donations and proportional representation are.  I'm sure the problem is that a 44-43 NDP/Green government would be very unstable.  So, I can understand why Weaver would prefer to be with a 46-41 Liberal led government as long as the Green Party gets its major demands met.

Why not official party status too? I know it was a big deal with the Ontario NDP in the early 2000s. I remember one MPP threatened to change her name to include "NDP" in protest (so that the speaker would have to say NDP when she was called upon).

[Hatman 🍁]

Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

Haha. Comedy central. UNREAL. I have never seen such a pack of ignorant non-BC "NDP trolls/flakes" so apparently threatened by one purportedly measly poster like myself among a large posting net crowd. Just ignore me. Put me on your "Ignore List". Then all is good.

PS. The hardcore NDP "Scientology/Jehovah Witness" sects within the NDP never cease to amaze. Akin to the Christian Heritage Party of "the left".

Memo to moderator: if you need to do selective post deletion (or editing, or probationary measures) in lieu of the outright banning of Lotuslander, use posts/statements like the above as a benchmark.

I see he replied to one of my posts. What's the point? I have him on ignore, so the only way I will see it is if someone else quotes him.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't understand why they would do the recount before counting the absentees.

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What is the theory that military personnel vote based on where their base is? I believe in federal elections, they can vote in whatever riding they want.

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ah, ok.

Well, I am cautiously optimistic about the count. The absentees are overwhelmingly leaning NDP so far and the PV margin keeps tightening.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP lead down to 12 votes in Courtenay-Comox. Counting still in progress.

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals are now ahead in Courtenay-Comox by three votes Still in progress though.

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Counting is done in Richmond-Queensborough. Liberals win by 124 votes.

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counting is done for the day, will resume tomorrow.

Liberal popular vote lead is down to just 3000.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

Why would that matter? Majority is a majority.

Because: Canadian politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

No new results from Courtenay-Comox yet today, but in this morning's counting, the province-wide Liberal PV lead is down to ~1700.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only 4 more ridings to count PV margin now at ~1600 votes. Even though Section 106 voters are disproportionately NDP voters, I don't think the NDP can make up the difference. 2 of the 4 ridings remaining went/are going NDP, 1 Liberal and the other is Courtenay-Comox.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two ridings left to count, and of course Courtenay-Comox is one of them. No update there. Liberal province-wide PV lead is under 1700 votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Woot! Looks like the Greens have a lot more power in government now.

Enjoy your Liberal-Green coalition.

[Hatman 🍁]

A majority of Green voters think the NDP should form government: http://www.insightswest.com/news/most-british-columbians-want-greens-to-support-ndp-in-legislature/