Conservative Party of Canada Leadership Race Megathread-May 27th 2017

[Hatman 🍁]

Also keep in mind there is no reason for the parties to merge. Alberta has no business having one conservative party, for democracy's sake. Wildrose doesn't need to merge to win the next election. And what would probably happen is Wildrose becomes the mainstream right of centre party, and the Tories die a quiet death. No need for a merger.

Where would the P.C voters go then?

Pretty much what Njall said. Where did the SoCreds go when they folded?

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Trost. Even with his name listed in our poll, he still received less than 1% (worse than Ambrose who wasn't even listed).

No one knows who he is...

He'll gain eventually if no other socon runs. Patrick Brown started at 3% because nobody knew him, but gained quickly because no other socon ran.

I agree. Polls right now are just based on name recognition. Though I would argue name recognition counts more at the federal level, and Ontario PCs love picking the biggest no name. At least in the last 2 contests.

[Hatman 🍁]

The fact that the heir-apparent Jason Kenney doesn't want the job indicates the Tories are resigned to being opposition again.

[Hatman 🍁]

LMAO. He'll get parts of the Prairies and that's it. In a GE, a strident, single-issue socon would get results closer to Alliance 2000 than Harper in 2004/15.

I just figured because he is the only so con and the only candidate west of Ontario he would have an opening in the leadership race not in 2019

Brad Trost has 0 name recognition. See the poll we did a few weeks ago. More people physically wrote in Rona Ambrose as their choice than pick Trost, who was one of the available choices in the poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

LMAO. He'll get parts of the Prairies and that's it. In a GE, a strident, single-issue socon would get results closer to Alliance 2000 than Harper in 2004/15.

I just figured because he is the only so con and the only candidate west of Ontario he would have an opening in the leadership race not in 2019

Brad Trost has 0 name recognition. See the poll we did a few weeks ago. More people physically wrote in Rona Ambrose as their choice than pick Trost, who was one of the available choices in the poll.

What was Ontario Progressive Conservative Party Leader Patrick Brown's name recognition at the start of the Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race?

Touche, but I'd argue name recognition is more important in federal races.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Leary won't run, but there is definitely a sizable chunk of Conservatives who would vote for someone like him... someone who will "stick it to those pinko elitists".

[Hatman 🍁]

Lisa Raitt's not going to win, unless there is some underground super campaign going on, a la Patrick Brown.  Is there one?

[Hatman 🍁]

10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

[Hatman 🍁]

10% (actually, he is at 11%) isn't popular at all, really. But he is in 4th place, behind MacKay (might not run), O'Leary (probably won't run) and Kenney (will not run). So, who knows.

I'm picking Leitch as the underground Brownesque candidate right now. But that's based on circumstantial evidence.

Ehh... maybe it's soon to count out Raitt after all. We'll see. 

Did that poll also give Bernier's level of support in Quebec?  My guess is that if Bernier is at 11% nationally, he's probably at between 20-25% in Quebec.

Yes, he is polling at around 30% in Quebec. Outside of Quebec he's in single digits.

Interestingly, he is doing well with younger voters, perhaps because young Tories tend to be Libertarian? He's also doing much better among men than women for probably the same reason.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone have the Tory membership numbers by province? Might help with our #analysis.

I can't say whether or not most Tories are anti-French, but they have expanded their membership since the Reform Party days.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anyone have the Tory membership numbers by province? Might help with our #analysis.

They use the system for the leadership with 100 points per riding, though, don't they?

Oh yeah. So, if the Tory membership in Quebec (what little there is) loves Bernier, that's a butt-load of points right there. 

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Toole expected to decide within the next few days.

I saw that Pierre Lemieux announced, would I be correct in assuming he won't be a major player in the election?

Haha. Did he really? Jesus...

Lemieux is a bit of scumbag. Happy to see him go. Funny to see him in the race.

[Hatman 🍁]

2.Why have Martin Singh when you can have Ryan Cleary, clearly?

I think his point was that someone a la Martin Singh who noone has ever heard of could pony up the cash for a run.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I know a conservative who insists on calling her "Dr. Kellie Leitch".  The comparison to Ben Carson is very apt. Maybe we should start calling her "the good doctor"?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure who I should support strategically as a New Democrat, but personally I think Chong is really the only palatable candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

How do you make that compromise? Either you are a social conservative who wants to rescind equal marriage and declare all same sex marriages to be annulled and you want to restrict abortion rights...or you can be electable. You can't be both.

Patrick Brown seems to be doing a good job of this so far. Basically, tell the socons you'll do one thing and tell the moderates you won't.

[Hatman 🍁]

Stay classy, Conservatives: https://twitter.com/LindaFrum/status/779839392332611588

David Frum's sister. What a deplorable family.

Also, I do find it amusing though that we have our own little birther controversy.  As pointless as it is.

[Hatman 🍁]

Dias is a Leitch donor.

Leitch being the Trump candidate confirmed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh wonderful, Leitch is winning. Hopefully she has a ceiling below 50%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, and if anything Leitch is the Patrick Brown of this race, so the Elliott comparison is strange. Perhaps this means Leitch is way ahead in reality. But of course, I don't pretend to know anything about the internal voting patterns of the Conservative Party membership.

[Hatman 🍁]

Will they even count the popular vote totals?

[Hatman 🍁]

Where's O'Leary? I am not following this contest closely the last time I checked he was front runner no?

He's probably not running. We already have our Trump candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

You're right, Kevin O'Learly is not literally Donald Trump.

[Hatman 🍁]

She has positioned herself as the alt-right candidate, that is why she is dangerous. That is if Canada has enough crazies to get on board her campaign. I'm hoping not, but then again I didn't think Trump could beat Clinton!