Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

After all is said and done, it looks like the polls did a pretty good job after all. Apart from Ekos, they all had Libs at 38-40, Tories at 30-32, and NDP around 20, which is about what they got. Pretty impressive, considering the precedents.

Yes, but we NAILED the seat forecast. That is, we I did better than anyone else (82%).



82% is still terrible tbh though

[Hatman 🍁]

So, Sarnia-Lambton, which has voted for the party that formed government in every election since 1963 finally has its streak broken (Liberals finished third there!)

So, what riding is now Canada's bellwether? Well, there's a long list, and none of them go back further than 1984:

Peterborough-Kawartha
Whitby
Oakville North-Burlington (Halton)
Burlington
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
St. Catharines
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods

[Hatman 🍁]

Italians swung heavily to the Tories in 2011, as evidenced by ridings like Vaughan. Italians normally vote Liberal, and I am sure the Liberals won most of them back this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually wait, is that a star of David necklace?  

**Looks up candidate name**

He's got a Greek (?) name but is Russian... now I am really confused.

[Hatman 🍁]

A nasty Conservative leadership race could split the party if a right wing populist rump thinks it will be safe to go it alone under AV. I doubt that would happen before the next election though; likely it would happen after a few AV elections where the Tories can't elected.

Of course, the Tories are going to kick and scream about AV because they know full well it'll benefit the Liberals and will hurt them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec always has a lot of rejected ballots.

[Hatman 🍁]

A recount will take place in Hochelaga. NDP won by 541 votes. The liberal party is claiming irregularities.

The irregular thing would be the Liberals winning that seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP hasn't been that low since December 2010.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh lord.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some sneak peak maps:

Vancouver:


Toronto:


Montreal:


Ottawa:


Shading is based on population density; ties were broken randomly.

[Hatman 🍁]

What is with the deep blue bits of the Island of Montreal?

Jews.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is the shading based on population density?

Not my idea. My colleague made the maps.

I went on a Twitter spree this morning with some cleaner maps. I covered most of the metro areas in the country.

[Hatman 🍁]

That Green poll in Le Sud Ouest is definitely a tabulation error. Not sure who really won it though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - LIB, FINAL - NDP

Kenora:  ADV - CONS, EDAY - NDP, FINAL - LIB

hahahaha

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's our national map: http://maps.grahampressey.ca/2015/

Version 1.0, so it's missing some features (like riding boundaries). I didn't design the map, but provided some oversight.

[Hatman 🍁]

My partner and I single (couple?) handily put the NDP in 2nd place in our poll (Ottawa South #17):

McGuitny (Lib) 148
Brown (NDP) 31
Balkissoon (Cons) 30
Redins (Grn) 16

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP needs to lobby for some sort of Parkdale-Dufferin seat. Seems to be the most left wing part of Toronto if it were one riding (even more so than Toronto-Danforth). (2 of the 3 wards Olivia Chow won in 2014 cover this hypothetical seat). Oddly, Parkdale used to be a Liberal stronghold (went Liberal in the 1990 provincial election).

Also, the Tories should lobby for a super wealthy York Mills-Bathurst seat. The Laurentian elite deserve their own gerrymandered riding!

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, a Wilson Heights/Armourdale district would've gone Tory too, I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

You can easily gerrymander an NDP riding in Quebec City by lumping the Downtown with Limoilou. (Quebec-Limoilou?)

[Hatman 🍁]

Bell Island looks like it had a relatively low swing against the NDP...

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the NDP did well in Sarnia. Just not the rural parts of Lambton. Funny that it's ahead of Hamilton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Excluding advance and special ballots (e-day only), here's the Tory Top 10:

51.9% - Lanark
50.9% - Huron
49.3% - Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry
48.4% - Elgin
47.3% - Leeds and Grenville
45.8% - Dufferin
45.6% - Grey
45.5% - Oxford
45.5% - York
44.7% - Halton

Interesting that Hudak did better in Eastern Ontario than Harper last time.

Civil servants

[Hatman 🍁]

So Kenora had some of the strongest NDP and Liberal polls. Is this an issue of different tribes supporting different parties or perhaps different chiefs backing different candidates?

[Hatman 🍁]

Can't be a tribal thing. The strongest NDP poll in Kenora was Kingfisher Lake First Nation and the strongest Liberal poll was Sandy Lake First Nation. Both are Oji-Cree reserves.

[Hatman 🍁]

Really? Judging from google street view, the area looks to be your typical upper-middle class suburb.