2015 Canadian federal election-Official Predictions Thread Competition

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll play. Liberals win the most seats.

St. John's South—Mount Pearl- Liberal (gain)
Central Nova- Liberal (gain)
Laurier—Sainte-Marie- NDP (hold)
Mount Royal- Liberal (hold)
Spadina—Fort York- NDP (gain from by-election)
Eglinton—Lawrence- Liberal (gain)
Beaches—East York- NDP (hold)
Toronto Centre- Liberal (hold)
Mississauga—Malton- Liberal (gain)
Sudbury- NDP (hold)
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa- Conservative (hold)
Regina—Lewvan- NDP (notional hold)
Lethbridge- Conservative (hold)
Edmonton Centre- Conservative (hold)
Edmonton Griesbach- Conservative (hold)
St. Albert—Edmonton- Conservative (hold)
Calgary Centre- Conservative (hold)
Delta- Conservative (hold)
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative (hold)
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative (hold)
North Vancouver- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver South- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver Granville- Liberal (gain)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal (gain)
North Island—Powell River- NDP (gain)
Victoria- NDP (hold)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are some more interesting ridings for you guys to guess:

Atlantic Canada
- Egmont
- Cumberland—Colchester
- Dartmouth—Cole Harbour
- South Shore—St. Margarets
- West Nova
- Acadie—Bathurst
- Fredericton
- Miramichi—Grand Lake
- Saint John—Rothesay

Quebec
- Ahuntsic-Cartierville
- Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
- Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel
- Brome—Missisquoi
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
- Honoré-Mercier
- Lac-Saint-Jean
- Louis-Saint-Laurent
- Mégantic—L'Érable
- Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
- Pierrefonds—Dollard
- Pontiac
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier

Ontario
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
- Bay of Quinte
- Brantford—Brant
- Brampton Centre
- Brampton East
- Brampton North
- Burlington
- Cambridge
- Essex
- Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
- Guelph
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
- Kenora
- Kitchener Centre
- Kitchener South—Hespeler
- London North Centre
- London West
- Markham—Stouffville
- Niagara Falls
- Newmarket—Aurora
- Oakville
- Orléans
- Oshawa
- Ottawa West—Nepean
- Peterborough—Kawartha
- Sarnia—Lambton
- Sault Ste. Marie
- Scarborough North
- Scarborough Southwest
- St. Catharines
- Thunder Bay—Superior North
- University—Rosedale
- Vaughan—Woodbridge
- Waterloo
- York Centre
- York South—Weston


Prairies
- Elmwood—Transcona
- Saint Boniface—Saint Vital
- Winnipeg South
- Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
- Saskatoon—Grasswood
- Saskatoon—University
- Calgary Skyview
- Edmonton Manning


British Columbia/Territories
- Burnaby North—Seymour
- Cariboo—Prince George
- Fleetwood—Port Kells
- Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo
- Kootenay—Columbia
- Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge
- Richmond Centre
- Steveston—Richmond East
- Surrey—Newton
- Nunavut
- Yukon

[Hatman 🍁]

your predictions are very predictable

[Hatman 🍁]

Delta- Conservative (hold)
South Surrey—White Rock- Conservative (hold)
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam- Conservative (hold)
North Vancouver- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver South- Liberal (gain)
Vancouver Granville- Liberal (gain)
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country- Liberal (gain)
North Island—Powell River- NDP (gain)
Victoria- NDP (hold)

I will agree with that with the exception of the Vancouver Island seats of NIPR and Victoria. The Greens are already winning the "lawn sign" war in Victoria. More importantly, the Green surge on Vancouver Island is quite palpable.

Just a few days ago on Tuesday night, September 8, the Greens held a rally in the Vancouver Island riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith. Over 1,000 showed up and its was standing room only. Blows me away. Akin to an unstoppable speeding freight train:





Not other party can achieve this feat.

Who do you think will win North Island-Powell River? The Tories?

The Greens will likely finish second in Victoria. They are putting all of their efforts into the riding, which is why they're winning the sign war.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of people think the NDP will win South Shore-St. Margarets, but I don't see it happening. Not after the provincial election wipe out.  I think the Liberals will likely pick it up. 

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of people think the NDP will win South Shore-St. Margarets, but I don't see it happening. Not after the provincial election wipe out.  I think the Liberals will likely pick it up. 

Does that mean much? The NS NDP already reached its low popularity in 2011, yet the Liberals were a distant third there.

No, the NSNDP was polling in mid to high 30s in the Spring of 2011, while the last poll has them at 27%. The NS Liberals have gone from 35% then to 50% now.

The riding is a traditionally Red Tory riding, which means it could go Liberal. The provincial Liberals did pick up a couple seats in 2013, after all.

Interestingly, the riding has been an NDP target for quite a few elections, but they have never won it.

[Hatman 🍁]

your predictions are very predictable

I can't or won't make predictions at this point, but do you really believe Linda Duncan will be the only non-Conservative MP from Alberta?

I am torn right now, but my hypothesis is that the NDP honeymoon is over in Alberta, and will effect the federal party's chances there. But I reserve the right to change my predictions in those seats

[Hatman 🍁]

Very amusing. Also, my predictions from a month ago weren't that far off...