Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[Hatman 🍁]

They've done several  Prime Ministers forever.

[Hatman 🍁]

Out of curiosity, how do Canadian Asians vote? Don't they break pretty Liberal

Depends on whether they're East or South Asians and whether or not they live in BC or Ontario.

East Asians vote Conservative in BC, Liberal in Ontario
South Asians vote NDP in BC, Liberal in Ontario

[Hatman 🍁]

Even in 2011?

Many South Asians voted NDP in Ontario, especially in Scarborough-Rouge River and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Historically those are Liberal ridings, and outside of those two ridings, I think most South Asians in Ontario voted Liberal or Conservative.

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011.

In BC, some South Asians still vote Liberal. Those in Surrey tend to vote NDP, but in Vancouver South they vote Liberal. In Newton-North Delta, they were more divided.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, East Asians are increasingly voting Conservative in Ontario. But, the two most Chinese ridings still went Liberal in 2011. 

Though the Conservatives won the more heavily Chinese sections of Markham (i.e. Markham-Unionville in the present distribution).

Same with Agincourt, I think. I'm trying to figure out why White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA. Maybe they're more tolerant?

[Hatman 🍁]

White people living in heavily Chinese ridings are more likely to vote Liberal than in other parts of the GTA.

This doesn't seem right. What is the evidence for this?

I was actually thinking of the provincial election. The Whiter southwest corner of the riding went solidly Liberal, while the Tories did much better in the rest of the riding, which is a majority Chinese. But, this could have had to do with Wynne's sexuality.

Federally, there wasn't much of a pattern in either 2011 or the subsequent by-election in terms of racial voting patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Something tells me Selinger will not be campaigning

[Hatman 🍁]

This doesn't belong here, but TnVolunteer's email was hacked.  I just received a pornographic message from his email.  Don't believe there was a virus in it.

There is a thread about it in the Atlas Forum.

[Hatman 🍁]

As someone without much knowledge on Canada police car can someone tell me the parties from most to least conservqtive?

I'm assuming you mean "Canadian politics", and though I might not be the most knowledgable, I could certainly fill you in.

Most conservative:
Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) - standard right-wing party, perhaps not as right-wing as the US Republicans but to the right of European conservatives, has held power since 2006 but did not win a majority in Parliament until 2011 (after another election produced another minority Conservative government in 2008), currently polling about 10 points lower than its 2011 totals, definitely feeling the pressure of "Harper fatigue" after nearly 10 years in power.
Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) - centrist "natural governing party", has ruled Canada for most of its independent history, most recently having won an election in 2004 (albeit with a minority government), currently the 3rd party after the rise of the NDP in 2011 and appears poised to maintain that position, but with significant gains.
New Democratic Party (NDP) - center-left to left-wing social democrats, historically the 3rd party but rose to Official Opposition in 2011 after riding the "orange wave", currently leading the polls and poised to become the largest party in Parliament for the first time in history.
Bloc Quebecois (BQ) - socialist party advocating independence for Quebec, previously held most Quebec seats in Parliament but was reduced to just 4 in 2011 (thanks to the orange wave), and inner turmoil since 2011 and tiredness with the separatist cause in general appears set to demolish the party once and for all.
Green Party - standard greenies, probably going to keep their 1 seat in BC but not expand much elsewhere.
Least Conservative

If anyone more well-versed notices any mistakes or such please feel free to correct me.

2015 Political Compass - http://www.politicalcompass.org/canada2015

- The Canadian Greens actually fall slightly to the right and on the authoritarian side in Canada, a real oddity since most greens tend to be more left wing then the major left-of-centre parties
- The Bloq would be considered the most Centrist of all the parties, almost falling in the dead middle but just slightly Left and Libertarian in their views...
- The Liberals like to campaign and call themselves centrist, but they are really a centre-right party, falling both under Right wing and Authoritarian. They are pretty similar in where they lay to the UK Labour party and the Aussie Labor party... how far have those parties drifted eh
- The NDP is still Social Democratic, progressive albeit less Socialist. They are still Left and Libertarian, best example is just a slightly more centrist Plaid Cymru.

That website loves to put as many parties as possible in the top right corner. I'm surprised they still have the NDP in the lower left (albeit barely).

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.

[Hatman 🍁]

So Hatman, when are going to see some of those sweet, sweet EKOS numbers?

Friday, I believe.

The Greens are not at 33% on Vancouver Island, folks. They are doing quite well there, yes, but not 33%. They won't even win Victoria.

Yeah, in Al's absence, I will be the one advising caution against small local sub-samples today.

He is usually cautions us against constituency polling. Vancouver Island is a bit bigger than that. But yes, we should pay attention to sample sizes (a number mysteriously missing from their tables).

[Hatman 🍁]

lol Forum:

NDP: 40
Lib: 30
Cons: 23

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/08/27/ndp-in-reach-of-majority-new-poll-suggests.html

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP polling higher in MB/SK than in BC also strikes as a bit odd to say the least.

However, we've now seen a few polls with quite a surge for the NDP in Quebec, haven't we ? I think it's been 3 showing them over 50%. Would that make for a perfect sweep there ?

I can't see the NDP winning Beauce or Mount Royal. Saint-Laurent is probably safe too, as are some of the other Chaudiere-Appalache ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Keep in mind that Megantic-Erable was Christian Paradis's seat and he was very personally popular. Its possible that with him out of the picture - all bets are off

That's why Beauce is the safest Tory seat in Quebec.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Beauce and thereabouts are historically friendly to right-wing parties, but it would be fallacious to act as though it were a Tory stronghold. It was barely a decade ago that the Liberals beat the Bloc by less than 2300 votes there while the Tories lagged behind at barely 17%. It would certainly go NDP in the right election.

They're nationalists, so I can see them voting Bloc, but that doesn't mean they're open to voting for a social democratic federalist party. Maybe through osmosis they will vote NDP in the future, but not this election.

ETA: Also recall that the Liberal/BQ races were back when the right wing was split between the discredited Tories and the Francophobe Reform/Alliance.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos: 33/30/29.

Interesting because Ipsos/Reid usually gets results that favor the Conservatives.

If polls continue to show similar results such as these, I wonder if it will decrease the incidence of strategic voting as people will think that even if the Conservatives win the most seats, they won't be able to form a government.

If that is the case, it would make sense for the Conservatives to not bring up the coalition thing or the 'party that wins the most seats is the only party entitled to form a government' lie, while it makes sense for the NDP to bring up the notion that the Liberals might back the Conservatives in power.

Despite correcting his recollections of the Beauce riding, I'd sincerely be most interested in hearing Hatman's take on this.

I'm still wrapping my brain around the implications of the Conservatives being in third place. I'm not so sure they are yet, but they are at least in a statistical tie with the Liberals.

It seems that east of Ontario, the Tory decline is helping the NDP, while west of Ontario it is going to the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is the only thing on the internet I can find about Duncan Graham:
http://www.parl.gc.ca/About/Parliament/FederalRidingsHistory/hfer.asp?Include=Y&Language=E&rid=158&Search=Det

When he ran again in 1974 he fell to just 3% of the vote!

I'm pretty sure that is a typo in the database and he got no where near that many votes. Notice that if you add up the number of votes cast in Compton in 1968, 1972 and 1974 - in 1972 there are about 10,000 extra votes!

Yep, smells fishy to me too. That database is full of errors.

[Hatman 🍁]

Worth noting for those who advance the myth that Mulcair conquered a "no-hope" riding in his byelection that Outremont was the NDP's best QC seat for 5 consecutive federal elections before that...

Except as you can see, the NDP had never won a seat before in Quebec, outside of a by-election in 1990.

Of course, Outremont was their best shot at winning a seat, but a long shot at that.

[Hatman 🍁]

I took the vote compass: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/

It put me between the Liberals and the NDP, but I got:

Greens: 72%
Liberal: 71%
NDP: 67%
Conservatives: 49%

Junk compass!

[Hatman 🍁]

My favourite CBC Vote Compass story was that someone voted 'Don't know' to every question and it told them to vote Liberal.

This makes perfect sense, if you think about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretending to run to the left of the NDP worked for the Liberals last year in Ontario. They're hoping the strategy will work again this time. In Ontario, they were helped by the media actively backing this message and looking for all the so-called NDPers complaining about how centrist the party had got. I don't think the media is as willing to do that this time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Al's favourite Wikipedia page of all time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP seems to be doing well in the riding polls relative to their national poll numbers, or is that a misreading by me?

Maybe, but they tend to be in areas that are more receptive of an NDP increase in the polls. a lot of them are in urban areas where the NDP has increased the most in polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nanos actually has the NDP leading! http://www.theglobeandmail.com//news/politics/half-of-canadian-voters-undecided-poll/article26170445/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

Since their numbers are averaged over 4 weeks, the NDP must have been up significantly this week.

31-30-29. Yikes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet poll of Montreal Island:

NDP: 33
Lib: 31
BQ: 9
Cons: 8
Grns: 3
Undecided: 16

Much closer than I had expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Notice that when its a three way split in Ontario - its the Liberals who get burned by FPTP because their supportr is so spread out

Yes, because nothing has changed in the last 70 years