Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay, we have (my) regional numbers!

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_alberta_april_30_2015.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Again, it wasn't so much a poll fail as it was a huge last minute shift in voting intentions. Such a possibility could happen again, of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

14% undecided. My guess is that few are NDP supporters. Even if every single one of them backed Wildrose though, they would still be one point below the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

I'm not so sure about that. I think that in 2012 there were people who were "soft Wildrose" voters who shifted back to the PCs at the last minute - I think the number of people who would have told a pollster they were genuinely undecided right to the end was very small. What I notice in polls is that particularly when you get to the final days of a campaign and DK/NA is down to 10-15% (if that) the people who say they are undecided also a. either did not vote in the previous election or cannot remember who they voted for b. don't know where their polling station is c. don't know what leader they like best and don't know what issue matter most to them...d. they also often cannot name the leaders of the parties - it all adds up to the profile of a person who won't vote but due to "social desirability bias" will not admit to it.

In a good year, turnout in Alberta provincial elections if about 50% - and yet you never get anywhere near 50% of survey respondents saying they won't vote. In fact even if you add together people who say they are less than 100% certain that they will vote and people who say they are totally undecided on who to vote for - you are still no where near the 50% of eligible voters who will not vote.

Also factor in that non voters are far less likely to do political polls in the first place.

What makes the "Too Close to Call" simulator so different seat wise? 538 and Earl both show NDP being inefficient even with large leads, but Bryan's simulator gives me 70-80 NDP seats when I enter in recent poll results!

Let's not confuse Grenier with the great Nate Silver! I'm a bit disappointed in Bryan though, usually he makes good projections. My numbers are a bit out of date now, but stay tuned on election day. Could be a very orange map.

[Hatman 🍁]

Reading the comments section on any Alberta election news piece is always a nice treat. Another reason why this election is so unreal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Jean will win easily. I imagine Prenitce and Swann could be in trouble.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is Blakeman cooked or does she have any chance at all?

Considering the NDP is polling at 70% in Edmonton (according to some polls), then no.

Is the NDP surge being driven by throw-the-bums-out-PC sentiment, or have the NDP themselves done something particularly noteworthy? Even combining the past NDP and Liberal vote gets them no where close to where they're polling at now.

Mostly "throw the bums out" but also because Rachel Notley is the strongest of the leaders.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just think, if the polls here and in Manitoba currently come to pass, the only NDP provincial government in Canada will be in goddamn Alberta of all places! Could anyone have seen this coming even 2 weeks ago?

I had been worrying that Canada would be without an NDP provincial government in any province. When was the last time that happened?

ETA: Just looked it up: You have to go all the way back to 1969 (if you count the Yukon).

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually I think its more recent than that - after the Pawley gov't was defeated in Manitoba in 1988 there was a two year period of no NDP provincial governments before Bob rae won in Ontario in 1990 and the a year later the NDP win BC and Saskatchewan

The Yukon had an NDP government during that period.

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pollster Bruce Cameron of ROI predicts a PC win, either small majority or minority. Would Jean and Notley try an Accord in a PC minority situation, or let them peter out for a year before moving non-confidence?

Forum: 42/24/21.

Last year Forum put out a poll on the Sunday and the Monday before election day, so maybe they'll have one tomorrow too?

I believe that we will have a poll out tomorrow too, but don't quote me on that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the Forum tables: http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20%282015%2005%2002%29%20Forum%20Research.pdf

NDP continue to lead among younger Albertans, and the wealthy (bizarrely, so, but nothing new in this campaign). No real difference between the genders, which is also bizarre, but nothing new.

What is new I think is that the NDP now leads among 2012 PC voters (40-35)!

[Hatman 🍁]

This is why the election outcome is not certain yet. We know there may be a last minute swing to the PCs. If it's big enough, it could be the difference between nearly being wiped out or a sizable official opposition.

[Hatman 🍁]

Isn't it already the last minute though?

No. Look at last election's polling. Forum detected a large swing between their Sunday poll and their Monday poll. If you extrapolate to election day, the there was another large swing.

We'll see from tomorrow's polls if there is any momentum to the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

I take it an NDP government isn't going to try to bring in PR? 43% sounds amazing, but PC+WRP is higher. Alberta is still a centre right province.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, NC... as I've said repeatedly, the big shift came the day before the election in 2012. We are still 2 days away.

[Hatman 🍁]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

It's today's polls that matter, not yesterday's (if we want to compare to 2012). If we see no movement today, then an NDP majority is pretty much assured.

[Hatman 🍁]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

It's today's polls that matter, not yesterday's (if we want to compare to 2012). If we see no movement today, then an NDP majority is pretty much assured.

Polls are not that accurate.

Ha, of course... but I may be biased, you see

[Hatman 🍁]

Coalition governments are not something that is done in Canada, with almost no exceptions. If a party has a plurality in the legislature, that party will form government. Furthermore, allying with the PCs would destroy whatever credibility Wildrose might have, given their anti-establishment message.

Not true in 1999 the Saskatchewan NDP formed a coalition with the Saskatchewan Liberals - it lasted a full four years and no one seemed to mind.

I said almost no exceptions, not no exceptions whatsoever. Saskatchewan in 1999 was obviously an anomalous case. It is also not really relevant to the question asked, since the NDP was the largest party, and merely formed a coalition government rather than forming a minority government. In any case, the Saskatchewan Liberal Party hasn't won a seat since 1999, so I would imagine that that is not an example that either the PCs or Wildrose are jumping to emulate.

A better example would be Ontario in 1985, but that was also highly anomalous, and its purpose was to dislodge a long-serving government, not to keep it in office.

And 1985 wasn't an actual coalition, either. And wont have any validity in this case if the NDP wins the popular vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wildrose internals predicting an NDP majority, coming from Jean himself. You gotta wonder what the PC internals are showing now...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/brian-jean-says-internal-wildrose-polls-show-ndp-majority-1.3060172

Edit: And we have the first poll in the whole campaign not showing an upwards NDP trend!
http://1abvote.ca/ndp-have-momentum-on-social-cue-for-e-day/
1abvote's final poll shows the NDP static at 44%, maintaining a huge lead over Wildrose who moved into second at 22%. PC third at 19%. Interestingly the NDP are performing much better in rest of AB (43%) than in Calgary (33%).

44% must be the NDP's ceiling in Alberta. Whodathunk?

[Hatman 🍁]

It looks like the Edmonton Journal fell to the same fate as the Globe and Mail did in Ontario 2014. The editor in chief of the Edmonton Journal confirmed that Postmedia ownership demanded a Prentice endorsement, despite their prior policy of not endorsing anyone.

https://twitter.com/bcbluecon/status/595268958057570304

The media in this country disgusts me

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Forum poll shows 45/23/23.

Well, I'm convinced!

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

I think I'm fully convinced at this point. But you'll note I've predicted a worse showing for the NDP/better showing for the Tories than anyone else.

[Hatman 🍁]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

I think I'm fully convinced at this point. But you'll note I've predicted a worse showing for the NDP/better showing for the Tories than anyone else.

Don't you think than 89% for NDP in former leader Mason seat and 94% for NDP in Notley seat is a bit too much?

Probably, but that's how the model works, unfortunately. Now if you reduce those numbers across the board, it would probably be enough to have the NDP sweep all of Edmonton.