Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

So if 60-70% support it, that leaves 30-40% who do not. What is the NDP polling at again?

Don't get me wrong, this plus all the red baiting, will scare off some voters, but and prevent the NDP from actually winning (did anyone think that was actually going to happen?), but I find it hard to believe that most would-be NDP voters would be surprised by her position.

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So how was Dix hurt by his views then? Obviously if what you claim is true, there were still enough resource people that were going to vote NDP but did not.

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be so weird that the NDP would get all of this support without voters realizing what kind of party they are, right? They're not a conservative party, of course they're going to take the left wing position on things. Just because they're in Alberta doesn't mean they're not going to take a principled stand on something.

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

[Hatman 🍁]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Impressive numbers for one of the more suburban Edmonton ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, but one wouldn't expect a riding on the outer fringe of the city to have that voting history. Any particular reason that you know of?

[Hatman 🍁]

More riding polls (Abingdon):

Edmonton-Whitemud:
NDP: 49
PC: 28 (inc: Former Edm. mayor Stephen Mandel)
WRP: 14
ALP: 5
Oth: 3 (Grn + Ind)

Edmonton-Casle Downs
NDP: 62
PC: 23 (inc)
WRP: 10
ALP: 5

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. I thought McCall would be #1. I guess in Greenway, most minorities voted Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Shaw went WRP last election, but the incumbent (now running for the PCs) crossed the floor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are all the riding polls that I am aware of so far:

[Hatman 🍁]

Graves said on Twitter that he'll be polling but he's more interested in federal implications.

I'm doing my best to ensure we release regional numbers!

[Hatman 🍁]

Janet Brown compares it to Ontario 1990. Back then, she worked for Peterson.

Colby Cosh thinks Notleymania is mostly Edmontonian and the NDP has a 20-something seat ceiling.

That's a little bearish, no? Such a belief would've made sense at the beginning of the campaign, but not now. Remember it was just a year and a half ago that Nenshi won every ward in Calgary in his re-election campaign. If Notley can tap in his support base, the sky is the limit for NDP seats in that city. I agree that outside CGY and EDM, the NDP only has a shot at Lethbridge and some other smaller cities (and maybe a couple of rural ridings like West Yellowhead).

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my second projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-projection-2.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my second projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-projection-2.html

Are you going to submit a reasonable projection if the polls continue to show the NDP with a large lead?

You mean with the NDP ahead in seats?  I'll have to look in my crystal ball and see how undecideds will break.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cute. At this point there is no doubt Ceci will win, anyways. Out of all Calgary seats, it's the most likely to go NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's funny how you guys know more than I do, and I work for EKOS

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see anything about tomorrow, but we'll see. We've been releasing polls on Fridays lately.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think one more night is going to change anything.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. I don't think that includes tonight, though (except, I don't recall WRP and PC being tied last I checked, but maybe weighting did it).  Obviously Frank is very excited and can't wait to let all of Twitter know about it. 

[Hatman 🍁]

My untrained eyes suggest to me that those are pretty good numbers for the NDP, especially among federal Liberals.

Geez, you think?

[Hatman 🍁]

Today there will be a bunch of polls released. It's already begun, and it is only 6 AM in Alberta

Leger:

NDP: 38
PC: 30
WRP: 24
ALP: 6
AP: 1
Oth: 1

Return On Insight:

NDP: 38
PC: 24
WRP: 21
ALP: 10
AP: 4


Looks like the PCs are moving into second place. This could be bad news for the NDP if soft Wildrose voters go PC at the last minute. I know some will tell us their 2nd vote would be for the NDP, but I think the 2nd vote of the soft WRP voters is more likely to be PC voters. More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

[Hatman 🍁]

At this point, I'm going to predict a 30-30 PV tie (NDP-PC), which probably means a PC majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

a.k.a an Ezra Levant voter? https://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevant/status/593584755096100864

If the polls are wrong again and PCs win, would it be due to an over sampling of NDP voters or a last minute swing to PC?

Last minute swing. And I think it's coming, too.

[Hatman 🍁]

Think HQ has the NDP ahead in Calgary and in Northern Alberta and tied in the south (probably a massive lead in Lethbridge)

[Hatman 🍁]

Pantheon has a massive IVR poll. Here are some riding municipal numbers:



Unfortunately few details about totals. Just 8000 completes in total.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pantheon has a massive IVR poll. Here are some riding municipal numbers:



Unfortunately few details about totals. Just 8000 completes in total.

Those numbers are from last weekend.

What we really want to see are the regional breakdowns from the EKOS poll, which is hidden behind the paywall on iPolitics!

What we really REALLY want to see is Forum to poll all 87 electoral divisions, like they did in Ontario.  Even if it is just a Forum poll.

Our regional numbers aren't up on ipolitics. I'm hoping we'll put them up on our site this evening, as I went out of my way to code the cases into them.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprised Ipsos' numbers don't show a PC majority!

As for the Libs polling at 10%, half their voters don't even realize they don't even have a Liberal candidate!