Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Most Liberals will vote PC in a PC vs. Wildrose race. That much is obvious, isn't it? If they can't stand Prentice, they'll stay home or vote NDP / AP / Green

[Hatman 🍁]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok guys, here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/2015-alberta-election-projection-1.html

[Hatman 🍁]

How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

If the Liberals are still polling at 12% after the candidate deadline, and they're only running in half of the ridings, then I would expect a sudden surge in my model in every seat the Liberals are running in. One would *hope* that a respondent wouldn't tell a pollster they're voting Liberal if they do not have a Liberal candidate to vote for.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would never stay home, even if it meant voting Liberal. Usually there's a fringe candidate I would back before I would have to take such drastic action. Of course living in Ontario where the ridings are bigger, there's less chance of having to make such a choice, but ironically more fringe candidates to choose from.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP & PC running full slates, Wildrose not running against Notley and Liberals are running 56 candidates (more or less). Alberta Party running in less than half.

[Hatman 🍁]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

I'm not trying to conflate the federal and provincial parties, but the polling I've seen has the federal Liberals far out-polling their provincial namesake. From what I've seen, the federal Liberals are polling at roughly 25% in Alberta. Based on current polling in Alberta, the federal Liberals may very well outnumber the provincial Liberals after both new elections have been held, which incidentally hasn't happened since Pierre Trudeau's first election in 1968.

I was just pointing out that the last time the Liberals were shut out in Alberta in a provincial election, Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister.

[Hatman 🍁]

Never change, 1ABVote

[Hatman 🍁]

Those aren't very good numbers in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. In a riding the NDP currently holds, you'd expect landslide numbers, not 50%.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose the PC candidate being the sitting city councillor for the area is cutting into would-be NDP support there.

Glad they polled Calgary-Fort. I was trying to figure out how to give the NDP a boost there in my model. Now, I don't have to worry about it.

Of course, there are so many more ridings I'd like to see riding polling done.

[Hatman 🍁]

Those aren't very good numbers in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. In a riding the NDP currently holds, you'd expect landslide numbers, not 50%.

Well, I don't know, but to me 50% with a 25 pt lead in FPTP is at least kinda landslide numbers.

Based on city-wide polling, given a proportional swing the NDP should be around 70% there.

Anyways, winning 50% in one particular riding isn't a landslide in Canada, and in very few countries that use FPTP. Winning 50% across a province/country is a landslide though (in Canada, anyways)

[Hatman 🍁]

Not only that, but get a lot of Red Tory support. (Consider the Liberals are polling the same as in 2012). But by Red Tory I mean pre-2012 Liberal voters that voted Tory in 2012.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Mainstreet Poll:

WRP: 35 (+4)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 25 (+1)
ALP: 4 (-6)
AP: 4 (-1)

Edmonton:
NDP: 64
PC: 16
WRP: 13
ALP: 6
AP: 1

At 64%, the NDP would probably win every Edmonton seat. However, they're stagnant in the rest of the province.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two new constituency polls from MainStreet:

Fort McMurray-Conklin (Brian Jean's riding):
*WRP: 43% (Jean)
*PC: 32% (inc.)
*NDP: 18%
*Lib: 7%

Highwood (Danielle Smith's riding):
*WRP: 44%
*PC: 29%
*NDP: 20%
*AP: 3%
*Grn: 2%
*SC: 1%

The Fort Mac race is closer than my model suggests, but that region is notoriously hard to poll and will have an abysmal turnout.

Highwood is close to where my model is at, except the NDP number is higher than expected. 20% in an exurban Calgary seat would be a phenomenal accomplishment, especially in a hotly contested seat like Highwood.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only caught a little bit of the debate, but good to see almost unanimous agreement that Notley won. I can't recall the last time someone was that clearly a winner of a debate.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Forum poll:

NDP: 38 (+10)
WRP: 25 (-5)
PC: 20 (-7)
ALP: 7 (-5)
AP: 6 (+4)
Oth: 5  (+3)

NDP are now in the lead in Calgary too...

[Hatman 🍁]

Also a note, a plurality of 2012 PC voters and a majority of 2012 Liberal voters (warning: small sample size) plan to vote NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments. That said, the federal election may be too close to this election for people to vote against the federal NDP.

Yeah. Most likely the NDP would be enjoying a honeymoon period next Fall. Would be a huge boost for the party, but I think Albertans are a lot more afraid of the federal NDP. That being said, it would put a lot of Edmonton ridings into play at least.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary will decide who wins this election. The NDP needs to win the Nenshi coalition to form a majority. They already have Edmonton, and rural Alberta is not going to vote NDP, so this race is going to all come down to Calgary.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum has regional breakdowns for rural Alberta, but the sample size is too small in my opinion.

Nonetheless, they're at 30% in Southern Alberta, which would definitely get them both Lethbridge seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, what's interesting about the Forum survey is the income breakdowns; the NDP's best demo is the super wealthy ($100K+). Does. Not. Compute. They're also the least likely to vote Tory. There goes my theory than Prentice was Alberta's John Tory/Mitt Romney.

The NDP is also winning every age bracket, and are even leading (by one point) among men. I'd imagine after the debate last night, Notley will get a bump from women (due in part to Prentice's condescending math comment).

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP should be winning Calgary-Klein, yes, but Stony Plain is too exurban/rural to go NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Predictably, the red-baiting is in full swing now.

[Hatman 🍁]

In BC, the NDP has had historic support from resource workers. That's not the case in Alberta. Notley's support in coming from urban progressives who are more likely to agree with her stance on Northern Gateway.