Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta First Nation NDP candidate says she faced hate, racism on campaign trail

http://aptn.ca/news/2015/05/08/alberta-first-nation-ndp-candidate-says-faced-hate-racism-campaign-trail/

her riding voted 28% NDP... Wildrose 37%

Alberta may not be as conservative as we thought, but it is still just as racist.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone on Twitter in regards to the Peace River poll 61 error:

"the correct votes for poll 61 in #PeaceRiver are #abparty 42 NDP 351 #PCCA 193 so the result stands with NDP winning #abvote"

No proof provided though

[Hatman 🍁]

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

Jeez, these NDP numbers in Edmonton are stunning - usually the only time you see any party in a western democracy winning by such a lopsided margin is in cases where a whole city is dominated by an ethnic minority - you could see Barack Obama winning African-American areas of Chicago with margins like that - or anglo parts of Montreal giving the Quebec Liberals margins like that over the PQ in provincial elections. But its extraordinary to see such a swing in a place as "middle of the road" as Edmonton

Nah, Obama usually wins 90%+ of the vote in Black areas. Similar numbers for Anglos in Quebec voting Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

At least one media source has picked up on our Peace River poll 61 quandary: http://www.ylcountry.com/2015/05/09/peace-river-poll-61-numbering-mistake/

Looks like while there was an error, the NDP still wins.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's that map my colleague made, that I mentioned earlier: http://maps.grahampressey.ca/abel2015/

Note, the shades are population density and not % of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Had there been a WR / PC merger like was rumored back in Dec. it could have significantly altered the outcome of this election. Assuming the new combined party neither gained nor lost votes but had exactly the same number of votes, ED's 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,13,15,17,19,20,21,23,24,48,49,60,67,72,74,75,76,81,82,85,86 and 87 would have been flipped from NDP to the new combined center-right party.

MERGED WR / PC = 60 seats
NDP = 25 seats

The first column are NDP votes while the second is a combined total of all WR / PC votes from 2015 cycle.
01 3,694 5,899
02 3,908 5,146
03 5,503 9,585
04 5,680 9,170
05 4,671 5,094
06 4,602 6,564
07 7,317 8,241
08 5,502 7,620
13 7,015 12,073
15 7,441 10,823
17 8,105 9,036
19 6,158 9,558
20 3,783 5,682
21 5,674 6,771
23 6,652 9,727
24 5,444 10,651
48 6,795 9,992
49 8,428 11,187
60 8,974 9,480
67 8,386 12,772
72 6,159 8,987
74 3,660 5,357
75 4,973 8,000
76 7,023 10,227
81 7,261 10,392
82 9,361 11,896
85 4,141 6,479
86 7,525 9,633
87 5,472 9,715

NDP could be in big trouble if the two center-right parties merge before the next election.

We don't care about district numbers in Canada

[Hatman 🍁]

We don't care about district numbers in Canada

*** Comment not valid in Prince Edward Island.

Comment especially valid in PEI

[Hatman 🍁]

So much for Topp wanting to run federally.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final map:

[Hatman 🍁]

And to clarify my previous statement, I believe Harper's Calgary house is in Calgary-Glenmore which didn't go NDP for sure until the recount. Anam Kazim will be his representative. Although Harper spends more time in Toronto than he does in Calgary nowadays.

Toronto?

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh, student votes. The only one I ever participated in was 2003 and I voted for non other than Dalton McGuinty. It's my only argument for not letting 17 year olds vote

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice to see the huge turnout for the swearing in. Aren't these thing usually held indoors? Very good optics to bring this kind of thing to the people.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also of note is that the cabinet has achieved gender parity: 6 men, 6 women.