Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Turns out Albertans are left wing on most things: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/features/vote-compass-albertans-on-the-issues-1.3061737

Except abotion, welfare and oil

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

Well, some ridings are made of a lot of small neighbourhoods, so finding a name fitting for all the riding is complicated, so they began naming them for politicians associated to the area.

Yeah, I know. I bet I could still come up with some pretty decent names, though.

In some cases, an urban riding will just be named for one of its many neighbourhoods.

[Hatman 🍁]

How long does it usually take for polls to start reporting?

5-10 minutes

[Hatman 🍁]

Mobile polls, I wouldn't worry yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP in 2nd place now

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC calls it!

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV calls a majority

[Hatman 🍁]

Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?

That riding went for them in 2008, too (only one)

[Hatman 🍁]

Chestermere-Rocky View is a surprise

[Hatman 🍁]

lol he's resigning

I wonder if the NDP could win the Calgary-Foot Hills by-election?

Maybe, if the NDP gets a honeymoon period.

[Hatman 🍁]

I want to hear Njall's and Lotuslander's thoughts on recent events. (for different reasons)

Njall's MLA lost (or is losing). Wonder if he'll finally join the dark side.

As for the map, it looks a lot like an election map of Saskatchewan now!

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh wait, Calgary-Glenmore is Njall's riding. Jesus, he could have swayed the riding!

[Hatman 🍁]

Check out the result in Poll 61 of Peace River.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/74.htm

If the numbers for AP and PC were accidentally switched, that means the 282-vote NDP victory turns into a 27-vote PC win.

Looks to be the case. I'd be expecting a recount.

[Hatman 🍁]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

I believe they said on the CBC that one was reelected.  I forget who though.

Edit, nope I guess one was leading, but that person lost in the end.
Albertans also punished the Wildrose floor-crossers in tonight's vote. All of the MLAs who migrated to the PCs last year lost their seats.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-2015-results-ndp-wave-sweeps-across-province-in-historic-win-1.3062605

Some of them did surprisingly well though, like in Chestermere-Rocky View, the only riding to see an increase in PC support.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone run the numbers on Stephen Harper's riding? Looks like the PCs got around 1/3 of the vote there.

Just calculated it:

NDP: 33.1%
PC: 32.6%
WRP: 27.0%
ALP: 5.0%
AP: 2.3%
Oth: 0.1%

Note: This includes advance polls in only the ridings that are a majority in his riding, so it could be off a bit.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's up to the map drawer, but typically one would only map the election day results.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of those PC defectors did quite well, even though they all lost.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's the social media generation. Better get used to politicians that have done silly things on the internet now. It's going to be commonplace in the future.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wonder what's behind the lower NDP support among Stoney Tribe and Tsuu T'ina Nation.

Some reserves have White communities in them. I believe Tsuu T'ina does.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the Greater Edmonton Co-prosperity Sphere:

So it looks like you've redistributed the advance polls? We're working on a map right now, and it looks like Blakeman won a lot of E-Day polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP vote change:

[Hatman 🍁]

So it looks like you've redistributed the advance polls? We're working on a map right now, and it looks like Blakeman won a lot of E-Day polls.

I don't think I see any difference there between your map and his

I haven't made a map; a colleague of has made one and asked for my input, and we have yet to publicize it.  But now that I've double checked it, I see that we made an error (hence why we haven't publicized it)