British Columbia Municipal Elections 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Which party is Watts going to run for? I think she's a Conservative, right?

Is Gregor Robertson running for re-election? What are his chances of winning?

[Hatman 🍁]

COPE is running a mayoral candidate? Oh dear. I know Robertson is a bit too right wing, but it could allow the NPA to win. But, at least they wouldn't do well on council. Are the Greens running a candidate? Perhaps Carr?

[Hatman 🍁]

How pragmatic, and well... un-Green like.

[Hatman 🍁]

Can someone explain Vancouver municipal parties?

Brendan can probably explain better, but Vision = left wing, NPA = right wing and COPE are on the far left. Greens are Greens. That's probably no better an explanation than a Wikipedia search though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gregor Roberston might be a federal Liberal though. At least he has been rumoured to run for the Libs.

[Hatman 🍁]

COPE is running a mayoral candidate? Good news for the NPA

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum

Elections are Tomorrow.
In Vancouver; what would be NPA's core vote, what can they expect in support with as you mentioned running on nothing and running terribly at that?
COPE is running a strong-ish candidate and has come out with a number of big bold pieces, albeit controversial as well, can we expect COPE's Wong to take a significant bite out of VV? Are they scene as enough of a threat to attract moderate NPA votes. Is there any expectation that COPE will recover from 2011 poor showing? NPA expecting to do worse?

Elections are not tomorrow, they're on the 15th.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it would appear that Gregor has it.

I don't see how the NPA have gained any traction. They've said only a few substantive things, they aren't running a terribly well oiled operation, and they've said a few not terribly well placed things as well. 

Wong hasn't done very much to help them.

As for elsewhere, Corrigan is probably going to coast to victory, despite my distaste for him. 

Surrey is an interesting race. I haven't been on the ground, but it's three way race to succeed Watts. There have been some rather vicious false-flag videos going around the internet trying to seem like they're from McCallum

Elections are Tomorrow.
In Vancouver; what would be NPA's core vote, what can they expect in support with as you mentioned running on nothing and running terribly at that?
COPE is running a strong-ish candidate and has come out with a number of big bold pieces, albeit controversial as well, can we expect COPE's Wong to take a significant bite out of VV? Are they scene as enough of a threat to attract moderate NPA votes. Is there any expectation that COPE will recover from 2011 poor showing? NPA expecting to do worse?

Elections are not tomorrow, they're on the 15th.

Thanks! sorry about that, I just saw a post that said tmr... my bad

Any other races to note? Victoria?

You scared me! I haven't been following the races in BC yet (because you know, Ontario!)

[Hatman 🍁]

If anyone can find me a shapefile or at the very least a pdf or some image of the Surrey poll map used in 2011, I will make a map of the results.

[Hatman 🍁]

I never thought to try, given then dominance of Surrey-First  

http://www.surrey.ca/files/COS_2011_Election_Results_by_Voting_Place.pdf

Upon closer inspection, Watts won every poll

I did come across this, but I'm looking for a map

[Hatman 🍁]

my point being that a map would be boring

So? Clearly boringness does not affect whether or not I have made a map in the past, why start now?

Do you know where there is a shapefile?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it safe to say that Hepner is the left wing candidate, McCallum the right wing candidate, and Rasode is more... populist?

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks. I was just looking at the poll numbers and what issues were associated with each candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is it safe to say the race in Burnaby is primarily between Corrigan and Daren Hancott?

[Hatman 🍁]

Question about Vancouver City Council: Is there a gentleman's agreement as to why the parties don't run a full slate? Or is there a law, or is it something that is frowned upon by voters?

[Hatman 🍁]

Strange; I would think it be common for people to vote for an entire slate. It has happened before where one party has won an entire slate.

Anyways, next question:

It looks like Malcolm Brodie is going to easily be re-election in Richmond? His main opponent appears to be Richard Lee who is running a (right wing) populist campaign, but his party has no seats on council and is only running one candidate.

There are several parties running four council, two of which have seats. Do you know anything about Richmond Community Coalition and Richmond First? I suppose they both support the mayor.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh, but why doesn't NPA run 10 candidates?

What other municipalities are you up to date on? And have you heard back from Surrey?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/british-columbia-2014-municipal.html Criticism expected

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't expect Richmond to be very exciting, obviously, but the language debate is fascinating. We're well accustomed to it in Eastern Canada.

[Hatman 🍁]

Long lines in Vancouver causing some polling stations to stay open until 8:30 and 8:45

[Hatman 🍁]

Linda Hepner elected in Surrey. Turns out it wasn't close at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Close-ish in Vancouver. Robertson leading by 1400 votes with 52 of 129 polls.

Council is really weird. Vision leading, but shutout of the top 3 spots.

[Hatman 🍁]

Amalgamation referendums in the Victoria area passed in every municipality that had ballot questions, except Oak Bay (of course!).

I generally oppose amalgamations, but it if it's the most conservative part of the area that's against it, it can't all be that bad.

[Hatman 🍁]

Unfortunately, Vancouver adopted "vote wherever you want" like they do in Australia, making mapping this election difficult.

In terms of general neighbourhoods though, it looks like the NPA picked up just one neighbourhood, West Point Grey (definitely a swing area, if you payed attention the provincial election).

[Hatman 🍁]

Amalgamation referendums in the Victoria area passed in every municipality that had ballot questions, except Oak Bay (of course!).

I generally oppose amalgamations, but it if it's the most conservative part of the area that's against it, it can't all be that bad.

Didn't Oak Bay elect a Green last time?

Indeed. Being conservative in the Victoria area means voting Green