Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Only one sitting councillor lost in Toronto, in Don Valley West where John Tory endorsed his buddy against another conservative.

Ottawa had two incumbents losing. I predicted on my blog that those very two councillors were in jeopardy.

[Hatman 🍁]

I find it utterly bizarre that the parts of Toronto which managed to elect a Liberal MP in 2011, with the exception of Centre, all voted for Doug Ford.  Your suburban Liberals are weird, Ontario

You mean, minorities? I think they're the Ford Liberal types.

Calgary is weird, too. A gay progressive Muslim got like 70% of the vote there I think. Issues are different. But with Ford it's more like the absence of issues. A you vs. the elite type of appeal with the working class. Party ID is a factor. PCs have no seats in Toronto but with independent labels many conservative councillors, including Rob Ford who has returned in a landslide, were voted in. But, yes Ford/Wynne voters I really don't understand. Not to mention the polls showing Ford carrying a third of Green voters and a fifth of NDPers. With the high turnout there must have been a lot of these voters.

Nenshi isn't gay.

That we know of.

Anyways, I found this map which might explain the situation a little.


It's very class based in addition to downtown vs suburb.
We can see Tory won wealthy areas irrespective of location.
Poor + downtown = Chow (downtown is wealthier so not much purple)
Poor + suburb = Ford

So it seems anti-elitism is why Tory never caught on with lower-income Ford Nation that much. He absorbed Chow and minor candidate supporters - the anybody but Ford vote.
Rich suburbs which voted for Rob now backtracked to Tory after four years in office.
The question is why down-scale suburbanites love Ford. Even in the 2011 federal conservative breakthrough, the CPC never won Toronto ridings overwhelmingly, and their gains in places like York or Scarborough were more cracks than clean sweeps. Again, class seems to explain the different pattern of support for the CPC and Ford. Note the CPC won high-income Don Valley while it was a John Tory stronghold.
The Liberals and NDP do have a much better hold on lower-class suburbs than municipal progressives. Many Ford supporters aren't engaged beyond the special place they hold for the Fords in their hearts, even if the Fords are still filthy rich themselves. Urban populism isn't something the PCs or CPCs can wield and again different issues cause these voters to side with other parties. I would imagine it's much harder to convince voters that say, Hudak would be best for the working class.

The comparison is striking.

So Chow lost ward 20 then? A shame, really. I guess it is the wealthier half of her old riding. But, I suppose I should be happy she won any wards.  Interesting to see that John Tory finished third in a handful of lower income areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

More maps:

[Hatman 🍁]

Compare:

[Hatman 🍁]

A candidate for Catholic school board trustee who had pulled out of the race got elected anyways: http://www.ottawasun.com/2014/10/28/school-board-trustee-elected---but-doesnt-want-job

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

[Hatman 🍁]

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

A 20-year old Mike Ford with only a high school diploma and family business experience defeated a highly-qualified, experienced, centre-right incumbent in Toronto city council. That Ford barely even campaigned. Democracy just doesn't work when voters don't understand their options. Downballot municipal elections suffer from this.

I think you mean Trustee. Mike Ford won as a trustee. But, I think we all knew Mike Ford would win. It is Ford Nation after all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada truly is a beautiful mosaic, isn't it?

[Hatman 🍁]

I know it's not an ethnic community per se, but the LGBT community has been the target of quite a bit of ire from the Fords. The level of invective, the casual bigotry, and code-worded slander is precisely the same kind of rhetoric used by the right-wing racist populists elsewhere (who also, for the record, disdain LGBT people).

It wouldn't be right wing populism without some sort of bigotry. (We all have head the Fords say non-PC things, but I think minorities in Toronto aren't offended by it, because they see it as humourous).

[Hatman 🍁]

Yawn...



Maguire didn't even win his home poll in Kars.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only a matter of time before they start doing so on the federal and provincial levels.

Interesting that these immigrant groups had no problem voting for the party with a lesbian leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

[Hatman 🍁]

This seems as good a place as any to mention my proposed new ward boundaries for Toronto.

• 44 Ward map - freeze existing number of wards
• 50 Ward map - split each new federal electoral district in half - add six additional wards

Great stuff, Krago.

Personally, I support 100 wards for Toronto. But I'm slightly crazy.

I prefer more wards. Its crazy in Halifax; we have more MLAs than we do city councilors!

It's the same story in Calgary; we have 25 MLAs but only 14 city councillors

It's the same in Edmonton and Winnipeg as well.

ha! you easterners and your ward systems.  I'v really grown to appreciate at-large voting

I think I've mentioned this to you before, but at-large voting systems (especially partisan ones) are probably the least democratic voting systems. Imagine if Canada had a 308 MP at large voting system? We'd end up with 300 Tory MPs! Somehow Vancouver has made it work, though.

If Vancouver wants to continue eschewing wards, it should adopt STV.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, a ward system would be better for working class representation in Vancouver, where there are no census tracts east of Cambie or Main that exceed the metro's average income. 

Toronto has more of a central corridor/periphery divide rather than east/west.  Interestingly I think in every other Ontario city there's a east-west split with the west side being more affluent and the east side more working class (i.e. Ottawa, Kingston, Hamilton, London).

Ottawa is more like Toronto in that regard. Sure, parts of the "east end" are historically poor neighbourhoods, but we have clusters of poor neighbourhoods throughout the city, much like Toronto.

The problem with the "at-large" system in Vancouver historically is that the turnout is always much higher from the wealthy western parts of the city than from the poorer eastern parts - and as a result you end up with a city council almost entirely composed of people who represent the rich areas where people tend to tur out. If you have a ward based system then then  east end gets a councillor - whether the turnout there is 30% or 80%

Indeed, and I think STV would not help this part. One of the few benefits of first past the post is that it allows for lower turnout areas to be equally represented to higher turnout areas.

Another problem with Vancouver is it's city council is obscenely small. Having just 10 councillors represent such a world famous city is beyond ridiculous.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier's median income will be much lower, as it removes the skew of Rockcliffe Park.

Interestingly, Ottawa-Orleans has one of the the smallest Average Income minus Median Income #s in the country, meaning everyone pretty much makes the same amount. (It's a good shorthand for a GINI coefficient).

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, a ward system would be better for working class representation in Vancouver, where there are no census tracts east of Cambie or Main that exceed the metro's average income. 

Toronto has more of a central corridor/periphery divide rather than east/west.  Interestingly I think in every other Ontario city there's a east-west split with the west side being more affluent and the east side more working class (i.e. Ottawa, Kingston, Hamilton, London).

Ottawa is more like Toronto in that regard. Sure, parts of the "east end" are historically poor neighbourhoods, but we have clusters of poor neighbourhoods throughout the city, much like Toronto.

The problem with the "at-large" system in Vancouver historically is that the turnout is always much higher from the wealthy western parts of the city than from the poorer eastern parts - and as a result you end up with a city council almost entirely composed of people who represent the rich areas where people tend to tur out. If you have a ward based system then then  east end gets a councillor - whether the turnout there is 30% or 80%

Indeed, and I think STV would not help this part. One of the few benefits of first past the post is that it allows for lower turnout areas to be equally represented to higher turnout areas.

Another problem with Vancouver is it's city council is obscenely small. Having just 10 councillors represent such a world famous city is beyond ridiculous.

I wouldn't put 1 for every 58,000 people down as such a terrible number, though it perhaps could be larger.  And when we're talking about 'working class' representation, remember that candidates backed by the east side win frequently enough - Robertson, Campbell, Harcourt, Phillips

Vancouver has been lucky enough to have avoided amalgamations. A super city with the entire lower mainland would rarely elect a progressive mayor.

[Hatman 🍁]

It should be noted that if we were to amagamate to the extent to which Toronto has, in rough density terms, I imagine we would annex Burnaby and New Westminster.  Both of these cities are ancient strongholds of the NDP

Toronto amalgamated six municipalities, though, you'd have to do better than that. Add Surrey, Richmond, Delta, North Vancouver, West Vancouver, Coquitlam, etc to make it more of a comparison.  To match amalgamations in other Eastern cities, you have to really go out into the suburbs and even into rural areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sounds about right to me.  If we add up Vancouver's 2 densest and most "urban" suburbs, Burnaby and New Westminster, and also add the University Endowment Lands which are not part of the City of Vancouver, we get a population of 905,000 in a land area of 236 sq. km and a population density of 3,842 per sq. km, a density not too far off from the current City of Toronto.

Sure, but Toronto is not the only city to have had an amalgamation. Density is usually ignored when it comes to these things.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not as much history, but there are still the regional districts. A don't forget Winnipeg's amalgamation despite Manitoba never having a county system.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why? There is such a thing as the Metro Vancouver Regional District, which is like a county.

[Hatman 🍁]

Map of turnout across the province: http://www.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basicviewer/index.html?appid=4cc21ec969e340b0a3aaba58423cd922

Looks like Latchford, Ontario had the highest turnout (86.6%). Sorry, Toronto.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Vanier's median income will be much lower, as it removes the skew of Rockcliffe Park.

Interestingly, Ottawa-Orleans has one of the the smallest Average Income minus Median Income #s in the country, meaning everyone pretty much makes the same amount. (It's a good shorthand for a GINI coefficient).

Qualifying my comments a bit I looked at incomes at the census tract level in Ottawa.  It's probably more accurate to say that the west end is more solidly middle class with some pockets of poverty and affluence, the east end is both richer and poorer overall.

Ottawa-Vanier is pretty diverse ranging from the eastern part of central Ottawa (i.e. Sandy Hill) through both Rockcliffe and Vanier/Overbrook and a bit of suburban Gloucester.  The west end seems nicely split between the more urban parts in Ottawa Centre and the basically suburban parts in OW-N.

Out of curiosity, do you have a preference for a particular side of town?

Only out of irrational tribalism of course, but, I do prefer the east/southeast. My mother grew up in Sandy Hill and I grew up (and moved back to the area almost 2 years ago) in Alta Vista Ward. Everything west of the O-Train line still seems somewhat alien to me. I've jokingly referred to everything west of the O-Train as Nepean

[Hatman 🍁]

This can only end badly, as all re-draws do.

Of course, I support Toronto entering the 21st century with a 100 ward plan, but of course, one can only dream.

[Hatman 🍁]

"During the Round One public consultation phase there was ample support for small wards to warrant the development of this option.  Many people believe that smaller wards improve citizen access and the Councillors' capacity to represent their constituents"



Bout time Toronto changed its ward boundaries. I of course support option 3 as well. (Look at how small some of those wards are. Squee!)

[Hatman 🍁]

I of course had to come up with names for the proposed wards: