Nova Scotia Election, 2013

[Hatman 🍁]

Any particular reason why the NDP did worse in the Annapolis Vaelley?

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone know where I can find poll maps used in the 2009 election? Elections Nova Scotia has shapefiles, but I don't have the software that can read them.

[Hatman 🍁]

For those wanting to update their redistribution maps, I can tell you there is no change to the boundaries of Yarmouth, and very little change to Glace Bay (no polls moved).  Not much change in the other ridings, only real issue I'm going to have is with Cape Breton North.

Thanks to Krago for sending me pdfs of the by-election ridings

[Hatman 🍁]

Antigonish has had 4 polls transferred to Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie. Three of those polls went NDP last time, making this riding slightly more Tory friendly (2009 GE result was very close, and the NDP won it in a very close by-election later that year).

2009 result (redistributed)
PC: 38.35%
NDP: 34.60%
Lib: 25.34%
Grn: 1.71%

[Hatman 🍁]

Adding those 4 GE polls to Guysborough-Eastern Shore-Tracadie (aka East Nova) and removing the 4 by-election polls in that riding gives us the following redistributed result for that riding:

NDP: 50.24%
PC: 26.16%
Lib: 22.41%
Grn: 1.19%

[Hatman 🍁]

This is the redistribution here: http://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/Final%20Vote%20Redistribution%20according%20to%202012-ED%20-%20GE%20and%20By%20Elections%202009-2012.pdf

Of course, it factors in the by-elections, which is what I'm trying to fix with these posts.

Next up: Northside-Westmount

This riding is Cape Breton North minus two polls going to Victoria-The Lakes plus a large chunk of Cape Breton South (Westmount).

Filtering out the Tory landslide by-election gives us an NDP seat (PCs won CB North, but the addition of CB South where the Tories finished third gives the NDP a narrow edge):

NDP: 41.10%
PC: 38.69%
Lib: 18.67%
Grns: 1.53%

[Hatman 🍁]

Those 2 polls transferred to Victoria-The Lakes are both NDP polls. That riding is also gaining some territory from somewhere else that is NDP friendly, but not enough to move the NDP into 2nd place on the redistributed results:

Victoria-The Lakes
PC: 38.66%
Lib: 29.30%
NDP: 28.56%
Grn: 2.20%
Ind: 1.28%

[Hatman 🍁]

Cumberland South: Gains some territory from Cumberland North. Easily done, I just took the transposed result, subtracted the By election result from the transposed result and added the general election result.

This gives us:

PC: 62.78%
NDP: 27.06%
Lib: 5.58%
Grn: 1.47%
Ind: 3.12% (ran in Cumberland North, where he finished 2nd)

Obviously in gaining part of an NDP riding, the riding becomes less Tory friendly. But not enough to make this non-safe.

[Hatman 🍁]

Inverness loses the town of Port Hawkesbury to the riding of Cape Breton-Richmond. Transposed with the by-election results, this was enough to make this Tory riding Liberal. However, transposed with the general election results, the riding stays blue. In fact, it becomes more Conservative (more Liberal too; the NDP takes a hit):

PC: 58.71%
Lib: 20.23%
NDP: 17.25%
Grn: 3.82%

[Hatman 🍁]

This transfer of Port Hawesbury (plus new territory elsewhere) makes the new riding of Cape Breton-Richmond less Liberal friendly:

2009 GE transposition:

Lib: 45.91%
NDP: 26.85%
PC: 25.65%
Grn: 1.59%

[Hatman 🍁]

Glace Bay and Yarmouth's by-election results match the Elections NS Transposition data, meaning I can confirm no boundary changes there (nothing that affects anyone, anyways).

So with that said, we can finally make a proper transposition map

[Hatman 🍁]

And here's the map:



So, Northside-Westmount becomes NDP; Yarmouth becomes PC; Antigonish becomes PC; Inverness becomes PC

[Hatman 🍁]

He'll probably announce tomorrow; was waiting for Labour Day to be done with.

[Hatman 🍁]

One of the exceedingly rare instances where I'll support a Grit.

How would you've voted in the Victoria by-election?

[Hatman 🍁]

Cool! (now if you could only spell 'centre' correctly... )

[sorry, pet peeve]

[Hatman 🍁]

Mind if I use this on my site? Full credit of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Could be worse, I suppose.

[Hatman 🍁]

High undecideds = ED surprise?

[Hatman 🍁]

Agreed. I like Dexter so wouldn't be too disappointed if he won again.

Yeah; I find him rather likeable, I don't understand why he has a low favourability.

[Hatman 🍁]

Those undecideds might not break until they enter the voting booth seems to be the trend these days, anyways.

I think I will be making 2 prediction maps for this election. One based on polls and one based on the polls + a 10 point swing to the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

That's making the rounds, isn't it?

The Tories must be desperate. The NDP is doing just the opposite of what happened in Greece. Their problem was lack of taxes, which I'm sure you will agree is not a problem in Nova Scotia

The key planks against the NDP are raising taxes when they promised not to, and all of these 'desperate' attempts to gain votes by all these recent initiatives.

It is unfortunate that they had to raise taxes, but the NSNDP did the unthinkable, and now have a budget SURPLUS. How is that even possible, anyways? (have not province in not the best economic times) Because we're the NDP gosh darnit. That's exactly what Tommy Douglas did in Saskatchewan in 1944. But I digress.

Nova Scotia would be foolish to ditch the NDP. They have never had such good fiscal managers. If these polling numbers stay the same, I can only pray it will be a Liberal minority and not a majority. The Tories being a$$hats won't help that though.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals wouldn't govern like the NDP at all. NS would be back in deficit territory in no time.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blog post: a look at the re-distribution (includes Space7's awesome pictogram): http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/09/2013-nova-scotia-election-look-at-new.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if any south shore riding can be considered 'safe' for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Germans in Nova Scotia? Weird. Would they be immigrants from pre-confederation?