Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Westmount turned out to be too "Toronto Centre like" to go NDP. It was the advance polls that helped the Liberals win it though, as many people voted before the orange wave.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anyone know why Quebec gained 3 seats for 2015-.  I thought the seat count in the Commons was based on dividing the 75 Quebec seats by the population of Canada.

The NDP fought for this, since Quebec is still growing, and wanted to balance the seat gains in ON, AB & BC.

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[Hatman 🍁]

I'm not sure that Francine Raynault or Marc-Andre Morin have such "long histories" of working within the NDP. They are both quite old - but as far as i know they were both last minute place holder names on the ballot for the NDP in 2011 who got swept in with the orange crush - i could be wrong but I was under the impression that they were people who had never been all that active (if at all) in the party prior to running.

Funke writes "...long-time NDP activist Francine Raynault, who finally ran in 2011, taking her turn after supporting earlier runs by her husband in the same seat. "
not sure about Marc-Andre Morin, but I've assumed a similar "long time activist" he was an environmental one, since at the start of the 2011 the NDP were still not seen as a huge threat in Quebec from what I remember outside of a handful of targeted seats

What were the NDP targets in Quebec before the Orange Wave? Gatineau was their only close 2nd. Maybe a couple Montreal seats?

The only New Democrats in Quebec that I'm aware of that did well, outside of the 1988 and the 2011 elections were famous lawyer Robert Cliche in 1968 (the Liberals were so scared of him they recruited famous economist Eric Kierans to run against him),

I just looked him up. He came close in Laval in '68, but what's more impressive is that he got about 30% for the NDP in Beauce in 1965.

Today there is a county named for him in Beauce: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert-Cliche_Regional_County_Municipality

[Hatman 🍁]

Fran Hunt Jinnouchi wins the Green nomination in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.

Lots of nomination races today:

-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC - NDP nomination race. Pundit's Guide doesn't show who is running, but I'm assuming MP Jonathan Tremblay will be acclaimed? Conservatives have already nominated former Beauport–Limoilou MP Sylvie Boucher.
-Etobicoke North, ON - NDP nomination race. Activist Faisal Hassan will be acclaimed. Liberals have already nominated the incumbent MP, Kirsty Duncan.
-Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, ON - NDP nomination race. Two candidates including 2011 candidate Lyn Edwards. The incumbent Conservative MP is Barry Devolin, who is retiring. The Tories have nominated his assistant, Jamie Schmale to replace him. The Greens have nominated William McCallum.
-Mississauga-Lakeshore, ON (essentially the same borders as Mississauga South) - NDP nomination race. NDP will acclaimed Catherine Soplet, a poverty activist who previously ran for city council. The Liberals have nominated Dr. Sven Spengemann and the Tories have nominated the incumbent MP, Stella Ambler.
-Victoria, BC - Green nomination race. They will acclaim former CBC host Jo-Ann Roberts. This is a pivotol seat for the Greens, as they very nearly picked it up in a by-election. The NDP incumbent Murray Rankin has already been nominated.

Indeed it was incumbent Jonathan Tremblay who was selected in Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix (riding should just be named Charlevoix-Montmorency!) for the NDP.

Lawyer/executive director Mike Perry won the nomination for the NDP in Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (defeating Edwards).

No more nomination meetings until Thursday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Eric Guerbilsky won the nomination in Mississauga-Lakeshore for the NDP (Soplet was not acclaimed). He is the president of the riding association.

Interestingly, the riding is 95% of the former Mississauga South riding, yet the name has changed? Maybe they want to be like neighbouring Etobicoke-Lakeshore. What's next Oakville-Lakeshore?

[Hatman 🍁]

Baird is resigning his seat as well. Very interesting. I was looking forward to seeing him run in Nepean. You can now move that new riding from "likely Conservative" to "toss up".

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight is the Liberal nomination in the new riding of Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON. Running are former Georgian College President Brian Tamblyn and bailiff Kevin Richards. The Tories have already nominated Barrie city councillor Alex Nutall in this notional Tory district.

Also tonight, the NDP will nominate former MuchMusic VJ Jennifer Hollett in University-Rosedale. She will take on Toronto Centre MP Chyrstia Freeland of the Liberals in that seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, there are two Barrie ridings now, so you can't call them both Barrie. I don't like the name either, but I can't think of anything better.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brian Tamblyn wins in Barrie-Springwater, etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

Here's a more thorough list of seats that may go against the trend:

Conservative gains:

• Louis-Saint Laurent
• Maybe 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area

Liberal losses:

• None that I can think of. That's to be expected for a party that just got it's arse kicked.

NDP gains:

• Sault St. Marie
• Outside chance at Ahuntsic-Cartierville?

Bloc gains
These are all maybes/outside chances

• La Pointe de l'Ile
• A couple rural seats thanks to vote splitting

The NDP is tanking right now in Northern Ontario, there's no chance they'll win Sault Ste. Marie. It will be a Liberal-Tory race.

MacLeod to decide within 2 weeks. Interestingly, her competition is a former Poilievre staffer. Unless he drops down. Hash, Hatman?

I've heard that Steve Desroches (former city councillor) eventually wanted to make the jump to federal / provincial politics. I don't see him running against MacLeod though. Maybe he'll run for her provincial seat.

Let's not forget that Baird's seat is actually Ottawa West-Nepean. He just wanted to run in the new Nepean riding, despite there being no overlap. Who will the Tories run in OWN? It will be hard to keep with no Baird on the ballot.

[Hatman 🍁]

What seats do you think will go against the general trend next election?

E.g. The Tories lost Saanich-Gulf Islands despite making gains in 2011.

Louis Saint Laurent is the only one that comes to mind.

There was chat about Mount Royal, wasn't there? Will that effort come to fruition?

Jews would have to swing pretty hard to the Tories given the Liberals' polling in Quebec. Winning Mount Royal in the next 10-15 years is a possibility, but I really doubt we'll pick it up in 2015.

Here's a more thorough list of seats that may go against the trend:

Conservative gains:

• Louis-Saint Laurent
• Maybe 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area

Liberal losses:

• None that I can think of. That's to be expected for a party that just got it's arse kicked.

NDP gains:

• Sault St. Marie
• Outside chance at Ahuntsic-Cartierville?

Bloc gains
These are all maybes/outside chances

• La Pointe de l'Ile
• A couple rural seats thanks to vote splitting

Also, I think the NDP may make some gains in BC, and maybe win a few rural Quebec seats they don't currently hold. And of course, at least one seat in Saskatchewan. Everywhere else will be a blood bath for them.

The Tories will probably win more than 1-2 seats in the Quebec City area. Louis-Saint-Laurent is fool's gold though. You think they'll vote against a Trudeau?

The Greens could pick up at least one more seat on Vancouver Island. Probably won't be Victoria like some think though. I'm thkinking Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke.

[Hatman 🍁]

Two nomination meetings today:

- Labour unionist Fred Sinclair has been acclaimed as the NDP candidate in Eglin-Middlesex-London. The Liberals have already nominated their 2011 provincial candidate Lori Baldwin-Sands and the Tories have nominated Karen Vecchio, the EA for the retiring incumbent, Joe Preston.

- Lawyer Joan Mouland will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Haldimand-Norfolk, ON. The Tories have already nominated the incumbent, Diane Finley.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is tanking right now in Northern Ontario, there's no chance they'll win Sault Ste. Marie. It will be a Liberal-Tory race.

Maybe tanking; but not necessarily *that* kind of tanking--at this point I'd deem it a genuine 3-way.

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Though there's more overlap w/Baird's former *provincial* seat, before he went federal.

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On behalf of a Gérard Deltell, they might.

Oops, I was thinking of the wrong riding. Yes, the Tories have a chance in Louis-Saint-Laurent. (Another reason why I hate ridings named for people!)

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals.  

This is correct. I was confusing (and maybe you are as well) Louis-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Quebec City) with Lac-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Montreal).

A better Tory target in Montreal is Pierrefonds-Dollard, anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't see any riding flipping from Liberal to Tory on Montreal Island with Trudeau Jr. leading the Liberals.  

This is correct. I was confusing (and maybe you are as well) Louis-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Quebec City) with Lac-Saint-Laurent (a riding in Montreal).

A better Tory target in Montreal is Pierrefonds-Dollard, anyways.

Lac-Saint-Louis

You see, I still can't get it right.   It doesn't help that it's on the Saint Lawrence (St-Laurent).

[Hatman 🍁]

They won't need a strong candidate to win back any Scarborough seat. Actually, Scarborough North *might* be a challenge.

[Hatman 🍁]

One of the provincial NDP candidates in either Regina or Saskatoon is a university student, the traditional sacraficial lamb.  Now, I don't know if that particular riding is one of the more NDP ridings in the city, but then the NDP used to hold every Regina and Saskatoon seat for quite a number of years.

If anybody wants me to put up a new thread for this rather than posting it here, please tell me.  Or, if you'd rather I just go away, please tell me that too.

Probably should start a new thread.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bunch of nominations today:

LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, QC: Liberals have a contested race between David Lametti and Marc Tremblay. NDP have nominated LaSalle-Emard MP Helene Leblanc.

Montcalm, QC: BQ nomination race between Marc Michaud and Jacques Tremblay.

Barrie-Innisfil, ON: Green nomination race between Bonnie North and Robert Rodgers. Barrie MP Patrick Brown has been nominated for the Tories (though this might change if he wins the PC leadership).

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON: Green nomination race between 4 time candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins and Mary Lancaster.

Sarnia-Lambton, ON: NDP nomination between Joseph Hill and Jason McMichael. This is an open seat, and the best bellwether in the country (voted for winner since 1963).

Calgary Confederation, AB: NDP will acclaim former provincial candidate Stephanie McLean.  The Tories have already nominated former MLA Len Webber and the Liberals have nominated lawyer Matt Grant, an former EA to a couple of MLAs. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Except Eve Adams is damaged good. She might get elected as a Liberal if she runs in Mississauga though.  Does this mean Soudas is a Liberal too?

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess she's forced to, because the Liberals have nominated everywhere else.

The riding has the potential of going Liberal (looks like it may have provincially), but it would be a steep climb for her.

[Hatman 🍁]

Paikin: for those who care, i was just emailed by a well-connected, longtime conservative who says (Adams & Soudas) are no longer a couple.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yesterday's nomination winners:

LaSalle-Emard-Verdun, QC: Liberals chose David Lametti, law professor

Montcalm, QC: (see Poirot's post)

Barrie-Innisfil, ON: Green's choose Bonnie North, their 2014 provincial candidate in Barrie.

Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte, ON: Green's choose teacher Marty Lancaster

Sarnia-Lambton, ON: NDP chooses former union leader/customs officer Jason McMichael

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, that riding just went from L+1 to toss up.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nominations tonight:

Richmond-Arthabaska, QC: lobbyist Marc Desmarais will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate.

Calgary Forest Lawn, ON: Cam Stewart will be acclaimed as the Liberal candidate. He was their candidate in Calgary Northeast in 2011, though this riding is mostly descended from Calgary East. Calgary East's MP Deepak Obhrai is the Conservative candidate while Jud Hansell will be the Green candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

No downtown Toronto riding is safe for the NDP right now, not even Danforth.