Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP might win Brampton East with Gurpeet Dhillon, but I wouldn't bet on it right now.  Malton itslelf isn't that big, and is the only part of the new riding that transferred from Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

[Hatman 🍁]

In nomination news, the NDP will acclaim incumbent MP Charlie Angus as their candidate in Timmins-James Bay tonight. No other party has a candidate there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Godin retiring.

L+1

[Hatman 🍁]

Former Kingston mayor Mark Gerretsen wins the Liberal nomination in Kingston and the Islands, ON. The riding is currently held by Liberal Ted Hsu, who will be retiring after just one term. The Greens have already nominated a candidate, Nathan Townsend. Gerretsen defeated six other candidates to win.

The NDP acclaimed incumbent MP Laurin Liu in Riviere-des-Mille-Iles, QC. The Tories have already nominated education director Erick Gauthier, who ran in the riding in 2004 and 2006.

[Hatman 🍁]

United Church minister Jeffrey Rock was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in the new riding of Red Deer-Lacombe yesterday. He will face off against Wetaskiwin MP Blaine Calkins of the Conservatives. Half of the new riding will be carved from Wetaskiwin, which contains Calkin's hometown of Lacombe. The other half of the riding comes from Red Deer.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bill Casey's nomination is no sure thing.

What utter nonsense. Of course Casey will win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Four nomination races today:
*Trois-Rivieres, QC: NDP MP Robert Aubin will be acclaimed
*Toronto-Danforth, QC: NDP MP Craig Scott will be acclaimed
*Battlefords-Lloydminster, SK: Liberal nomination. Not sure who is running. Incumbent MP Gerry Ritz (CONS) has already been named the Conservative candidate.
*Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola, BC: NDP will acclaim Angelique Wood as their candidate. She is a former councillor on the Regional District of Okanagan-Similkameen. (She lost her seat last year). The Tories have already nominated Okanagan – Coquihalla MP Dan Albas and the Liberals have nominated  Metis lawyer Karley Scott.

[Hatman 🍁]

North Battleford city councillor Ray Fox wins the Liberal nomination in Battlefords-Lloydminster.

As for polls, both Ipsos and Abacus use opt-in panels, so they should both be lumped in as junk polls.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the Bloc is doing so-so right now, and will make it interesting in Quebec, where there will be a lot of NDP-BQ battles. Like DC said, F+D has a shot at their leader's seat, but nothing else at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's nomination races

- The NDP will acclaim their MP in Comton-Stanstead, QC, Jean Rousseau.
- There is a 3-way race for the Liberal nomination in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, ON. This is a pretty cruical seat for the Liberals, as it is Ontario's most Francophone riding which used to be a safe Liberal seat. It's now a swing seat, due to it being mostly rural (but has some growing Ottawa exurbs). The incumbent MP is Tory Pierre Lemieux who has already been nominated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Francis "Frank" Drouin wins the Liberal nomination in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. He is a government relations consultant from Hawkesbury.

We don't have any more nomination races until Tuesday in Brantford-Brant, ON where Marc Laferriere will be acclaimed as the NDP candidate. He ran for the NDP in 2011.  The Tories have already nominated incumbent MP Phil McColeman and the Liberals have nominated policy research analyst Danielle Takacs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight is the NDP nomination in Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC where Independent MP Maria Mourani will be acclaimed (the NDP bans floor crossing, so she doesn't sit as a New Democrat). Despite winning the riding for the BQ in 2011, the new boundaries favour the Liberals (with the NDP in 2nd, even), even though the Liberals finished third in Ahuntsic in 2011. This shift is explained by the neighbourhood of Cartierville (which was in Stephane Dion's riding) being transferred over to the new riding, and the fact that Ahuntsic was a tight 3 way race in 2011.

The Tories have already nominated William Moughrabi in the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Next nominations meetings aren't until Saturday:

-In Abitibi—Témiscamingue, QC (MaxQue territory) the BQ will be nominating journalist Yvon Moreau. The NDP has already nominated its MP, Christine Moore and the Liberals have nominated executive director Claude Thibault.
-In Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK the Liberals will be nominating Lawrence Joseph who was the NDP candidate in 2011 (almost won it as well). The Conservatives have already nominated Robert Clarke, the incumbent.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pfft, all of Abitibi is "MaxQue territory" as far as I'm concerned.

The dates are available at the pundit's guide site.

[Hatman 🍁]

BQ leader Mario Beaulieu will be running in La Pointe-de-l'Ile, an NDP held riding in working class/nationalist stronghold in the east end of Montreal.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a crap shoot which riding to pick, really, since the NDP and Bloc are going after the same kind of voters at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

You'd think that, but there is still a correlation between NDP areas and BQ areas in Quebec. I'm not sure which ridings would most likely attract the kinds of people you describe. Perhaps more rural areas?

[Hatman 🍁]

Back to nomination races, we have two contested races today:

* In Scarborough North, ON, the Liberals will be choosing between five candidates. The NDP have already nominated Scarborough-Rouge River MP Rathika Sitsabaiesan as the candidate here.
* In Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, BC, the NDP will be choosing between six candidates to replace outgoing MP Jean Crowder who is retiring. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Shaun Chen, the Chair of the Toronto District School Board wins the Liberal nomination in Scarborough North.

[Hatman 🍁]

Van East will stay NDP unless we see a 1993 style wave election.

[Hatman 🍁]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

1993 is a great example of how voters can drift; a majority of the NDP caucus was from a province where they are currently shut out!

The entire NDP caucus was from Western Canada, no less.

And the only place in *Canada* which has seen continual NDP representation since 1993 is whatever inherited portion of Svend Robinson's 1993 constituency remains.  (And if any of it was inherited by Libby Davies in '97 or Peter Julian in '04--I'm not sure what the geographic configurations are.)

The entire Burnaby portion of the 1993 Burnaby-Kingsway riding has remained NDP since then. Fitting that the riding is now named for Tommy Douglas. If the NDP loses the new riding of Burnaby North-Seymour but keeps Burnaby South, then it the NDP continuous area will be reduced to a narrow strip.

Northeastern Burnaby (east of Spelling Ave) has gone NDP continuously since 1972, probably the part of the country that has had an NDP MP the longest. What's really amazing is this area may not have even voted NDP on its own in 2011.

Much different for the Liberals who have had parts of Mount Royal since the 20's.

#naturalgoverningparty

[Hatman 🍁]

2011 was the latest census

[Hatman 🍁]

Last night the Liberals nominated Durham/Pickering Regional Councillor Jennifer O'Connell in the new riding of Pickering-Uxbridge, ON. She'll face Pickering-Scarborough East MP Coreneliu Chisu of the Conservatives.

Tonight the NDP will nominate their 2011 candidate Daniel Beals in Kingston and the Islands, ON.  And, the Greens will see a contested nomination in Cowichan-Malahat-Lanford, BC between farmer Dan Ferguson and business owner Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi. The Greens are trying to make inroads on Vancouver Island, and have the advantage of not needing to defeat an incumbent in this new riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fran Hunt Jinnouchi wins the Green nomination in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford.

Lots of nomination races today:

-Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC - NDP nomination race. Pundit's Guide doesn't show who is running, but I'm assuming MP Jonathan Tremblay will be acclaimed? Conservatives have already nominated former Beauport–Limoilou MP Sylvie Boucher.
-Etobicoke North, ON - NDP nomination race. Activist Faisal Hassan will be acclaimed. Liberals have already nominated the incumbent MP, Kirsty Duncan.
-Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock, ON - NDP nomination race. Two candidates including 2011 candidate Lyn Edwards. The incumbent Conservative MP is Barry Devolin, who is retiring. The Tories have nominated his assistant, Jamie Schmale to replace him. The Greens have nominated William McCallum.
-Mississauga-Lakeshore, ON (essentially the same borders as Mississauga South) - NDP nomination race. NDP will acclaimed Catherine Soplet, a poverty activist who previously ran for city council. The Liberals have nominated Dr. Sven Spengemann and the Tories have nominated the incumbent MP, Stella Ambler.
-Victoria, BC - Green nomination race. They will acclaim former CBC host Jo-Ann Roberts. This is a pivotol seat for the Greens, as they very nearly picked it up in a by-election. The NDP incumbent Murray Rankin has already been nominated.