Canadian federal election - 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Except for the fact that the ad went viral.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even when an ad like this BQ one "goes viral" what exactly does that mean? Does that mean that hundreds of thousands of low information swing voters in Quebec are seeing it (unlikely) or does it mean that it is going "viral" among people like us - largely anglo political junkies who are not even remotely within the BQ universe and not even in Quebec...(more likely)

Anyways, my point is that pundits and other observers often fall into the trap of taking seriously an ad that actually has no "buy" attached to it and that is not actually running anywhere and that will probably never been seen by more tha .01% of the electorate!

While this is true, my point was it's now being seen than more than just subscribers to the BQ facebook page. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Should've targeted Rob Anders. Didn't matter though.

[Hatman 🍁]

This weekend's nominations:

- NDP MP Isabelle Morin was acclaimed Friday as their candidate in Dorval-Lachine-LaSalle, QC. She'll take on public servant Daniela Chivu for the Tories and lawyer Anju Dhillon for the Liberals.

- Former Tory/Independent MP Bill Casey won the Liberal nomination in Cumberland-Colchester, NS. He will take on the incumbent, Scott Armstrong of the Conservatives.

- John Hansen will be the NDP candidate in Kanata-Carleton, ON. He was their candidate in Carleton-Mississippi Mills in last year's provincial election. He'll take on former Liberal leadership candidate Karen McCrimmon and Green candidate Andrew West (also their 2014 provincial candidate). The seat is a notional Tory one, but they have yet to nominated a candidate to replace retiring incumbent Gordon O'Connor.

- Western prof Matthew Rowlinson won the NDP nomination in London West, ON. He will take on Tory incumbent Ed Holder and Liberal news anchor Kate Young.

- Union rep Vicky O'Dell will be the NDP candidate in Souris-Moose Mountain, SK. She'll take on Tory chiropractor Robert Kitchen.

- Laurentides-Labelle (see RB's post)

- Lawyer Ruby Sahota will be the Liberal candidate in Brampton North. She takes on Tory incumbent Parm Gill and the NDP's former leadership candidate Martin Singh.

- MP Dan Harris was acclaimed as the NDP's candidate in Scarborough Southwest, ON.

- Linda McQuaig will once again be the NDP's candidate in Toronto Centre, ON. She ran there in a by-election in 2013. She will not have to face the same Liberal candidate she lost to, as Chrystia Freeland is fleeing to the new University-Rosedale riding. The Liberal candidate will instead be businessman Bill Morneau.

- 3 time NDP and one-time Independent candidate Richard Walsh will be the Green candidate in Waterloo, ON. He'll take on Tory incumbent Peter Braid and Liberal candidate Bardish Chagger.

- Public servant / musician Levy Abad won the NDP nomination in Winnipeg North, MB. He'll take on Liberal incumbent Kevin Lamoureux, Tory actor Harpeet Turka and Green John Redekopp who is a former provincial candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Nanaimo-Alberni isn't the kind of place you'd get a lot of fundies living. Just a lot of old people and hippies.

[Hatman 🍁]

How did two sitting MLAs manage to run against each other for the Van East nomination? Strange. I'd imagine Kwan has the advantage?

[Hatman 🍁]

My confusion comes from how rare it is for two sitting MLAs to run against each other for the NDP nomination in any one seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lawyer Phil Trotter won the NDP nomination in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, ON on the 2nd ballot. Running for the Liberals in that riding is lawyer Susan Watt and the Tories are running incumbent Bernard Trottier.

Akil Sadikali will be the NDP candidate in the new riding of Don Valley North, ON. He was the provincial candidate in Don Valley East last year. The Liberals are running chemist Geng Tan there, while Don Valley East MP Joe Daniel has decided to run in this riding instead for the Conservatives.

[Hatman 🍁]

Weekend nomination roundup:

* Former MP Bernard Genereux will be the Conservative candidate in Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC.  The Liberal candidate will be financial security advisor Marie-Josée Normand. The NDP currently holds this seat.
* NDP MP Carol Hughes was acclaimed in Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, ON. The Liberal candidate there is lodge owner Heather Wilson.
* Clarington councillor Corrina Traill won the Liberal nomination in Durham, ON. She'll be running against Tory incumbent Erin O'Toole and NDP candidate Derek A. Spence.
* Former Canadian Alliance candidate (Perth-Middlesex 2003 by-election) Marian Meinen-Gagne will be the Conservative candidate in the new riding of Kitchener South-Hespeler. The NDP is running their 2011 candidate from Kitchener-Conestoga, Lorne Bruce and the Greens are running their 2014 provincial candidate in that riding, David Weber.
* Cowichan-Malahat-Lanford (see Adam T's post)
* North Vancouver, BC: The NDP nominated band councillor Carleen Thomas. Businessman John Wilkinson is the Liberal candidate and incumbent MP Andrew Saxton will be running for re-election for the Conservatives.
* Ryan Young won on the second ballot for the NDP nomination in Lac-Saint-Louis, QC. He was the Green candidate in Pierrefonds-Dollard in 2008. He'll be running against Liberal incumbent Francis Scarpaleggia and Green candidate public servant Rohan Crichton.
* Vaughan city councillor Deb Schulte won the Liberal nomination in the new riding of King-Vaughan, ON. She'll be running against Conservative realtor Konstantin Toubis and Green candidate Ann Raney.
* Mississauga Centre, ON - see lilTommy's post.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another turncoat,  great.

[Hatman 🍁]

No, it's not, because the NDP is technically the same party in every province. There's lots of Liberals in the Sask Party, that's where Liberals are supposed to go if they don't want to stick with the actual Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Ottawa South NDP (no, I didn't attend) nominated former Tory George Brown to be their candidate last night, defeating Prosper M'Bemba-Meka, who was the NDP's candidate in Ottawa-Orleans in the 2014 provincial election. Brown ran for the Tory nomination in 2008, losing to Elie Salibi.

The Greens nominated John Redins a few weeks ago. Redins ran twice here for the Party of People with Special Needs (2014 provincial, 2013 provincial by-election) and also ran for city council (I even voted for him!). He's a nice guy; he talks to me on Twitter from time to time.

While Pundit's Guide doesn't it show it yet, the Conservatives have already nominated Dev Balkissoon. I don't know much about him, yet.

And of course, the Liberals have nominated the incumbent, David McGuinty.

Also, there will be a Libertarian running, grocery store department manager (and of course, a youngish White male!), Damien Wilson.


There was also and NDP nomination in Bourassa, QC yesterday. Dolmine Laguerre won in a a contested race. She will be running against the Liberal incumbent, Emmanuel Dubourg.


Today is the Liberal nomination in the riding of Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, QC. It is a contested race between 2008 Conservative candidate Rene Vincelette and his opponent, Luc Rainville. The NDP candidate there is Brigitte Sansoucy who has run there twice before. The current NDP incumbent will not be running again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yesterday: Rene Vincelette won the Liberal nomination in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, QC
Today:
- Perennial candidate David Carter Laird will be the NDP candidate in Burlington, ON. Trade and investment specialist Karina Gould is the Liberal candidate and incumbent Mike Wallace is the Conservative candidate
-Pamela Downward will be the NDP candidate in the new riding of Pickering-Uxbridge, ON. Jennifer O'Connell is the Liberal candidate and Corneliu Chisu is the Tory incumbent.
-Lawyer Chris Bittle will be the Liberal candidate in St. Catharines, ON. He joins Tory incumbent Rick Dykstra on the ballot.
-Lawyer Jodi Wyman will be the Liberal candidate in Bandon-Souis, MB. Incumbent Larry Maguire is the Conservative candidate. The Greens will be running David Neufeld again after he ran in the 2013 by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today:
-Former Lorraine city councillor Ramez Ayoub will be the Liberal candidate in Therese-De Blainville, QC. Marc-Aurele-Fortin incumbent Alain Gigure will be running for the NDP and Hotel President Manuel Puga will be the Conservative candidate.
-Steven Kou emerged as the only candidate in a botched nomination for the Liberals in Vancouver Kingsway. They will not reveal who he is until after he has been nominated. The NDP's Don Davies is the incumbent and will be running again, while paralegal Jojo Quimpo will be the Cosnervative candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's your weekend nomination wrap up:

-In the new riding of Long Range Mountains, NL (west coast), businesswoman Gudie Hutchings won the Liberal nomination against Mark Watton.

-Lawyer René Arsenault was acclaimed as the Liberal candidate in Madawaska-Restigouche, NB (NW corner). He'll take on the Conservative incumbent, Bernard Valcourt.

-Former ambassador to Ukraine Daniel Caron was acclaimed as the NDP candidate in Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC (NW Quebec City). The NDP incumbent, Alexandrine Latendresse is retiring. Corporate services manager Youri Rousseau will be the Liberal candidate.

-IT technician Normand Laurin will be the NDP candidate in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, ON (east of Ottawa). The Liberal candidate is Francis Drouin and the Tory incumbent is Pierre Lemieux.

-Farmer Glenn Arthur Wright won the NDP nomination in the new riding of Carlton Trail-Eagle Creek, SK (rural Saskatoon). He'll be running against Conservative MP Kelly Block.

-Professor Glen Allan will be the Liberal candidate in Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner, AB (SE corner of Alberta). The Green candidate there is engineer Brent Smith and the Conservative candidate is MP Jim Hillyer, who is moving over from Lethbridge riding.

- Former MP Yves Lessard will be the BQ candidate in Beloeil-Chambly, QC (east of Montreal). He joins Liberal candidate and property appraiser Karine Desjardins and incumbent NDP MP Mathew Dube on the ballot.

- In next door Montarville, QC, the BQ nominated lecturer Catherine Fournier as their candidate. The NDP is running their incumbent, Djaouida Sellah, the Liberals are running author Michel Picard and the Tories are running lawyer Stephane Duranleau.

- Former Cranbrook mayor Wayne Stetski will be the NDP candidate in Kootenay-Columbia, BC (southeast corner of BC). He'll take on Conservative MP David Wilks and the Green's 2011 candidate there, Bill Green.

[Hatman 🍁]

L+1

[Hatman 🍁]

Depending on how popular the Liberals are in Quebec on election Day, Brome-Missisquoi would be one of their more likely pick ups.

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight we have two nomination races:

In Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup, QC, the NDP will acclaim their MP Francois Lapointe. He'll be running in a re-match against former Tory MP Bernard Genereux and Liberal Marie-Josee Normand. Lapointe won the riding by NINE votes in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing a contested race in the new Vancouver Island riding of Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke (pretty much a re-configured Esquimalt-Juan-de Fuca). Luke Krayenhoff takes on David Merner. The Tories just acclaimed Shari Lukens a former councillor in Colwood as their candidate. The Greens are running photographer Frances Litman.  The incumbent is NDPer Randall Garrison who will be running for re-election.   

[Hatman 🍁]

Weekend nomination news:

-Jennifer McKenzie won the NDP nomination in Fundy Royal, NB. She is a former school trustee in Ottawa, and in fact just ran for the ONDP in Ottawa Centre in last year's election. I voted for her when I lived in her district in 2010. Didn't know she was from NB or that she have moved back! She'll be running against Green Ira Wilbur (ran provincially in Albert last year), Liberal businesswoman Alaina Lockhart and Conservative incumbent Rob Moore.

- Shipper/receiver Mario Rimbao will be the NDP candidate in Mount Royal, QC. He'll be running against Cote-Saint-Luc mayor Anthony Housefather who is the Liberal candidate. (Incumbent Irwin Cotler is not running again)

- In Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River, SK the NDP will be running La Loche mayor Georgina Jolibois. The Liberals are running NDP turncoat Lawrence Joseph and the Tories are running incumbent Rob Clarke.

- Businessman Trent Fraser won the Tory nomination in new riding of Regina-Lewvan, SK. The NDP are running former candidate Erin Weir in this notional NDP riding. The Liberals are running former Regina city councillor Louis Browne.

-In Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères, QC, accountant Xavier Barsalou-Duval will be the Bloc candidate.

-Chemist David Berthiaume will be the Liberal candidate in Mégantic—L'Érable, QC. He'll be running against Tory incumbent Christian Paradis.

-Former MPP Khalil Ramal will be the Liberal candidate in London-Fanshawe, ON. He'll be running against NDP incumbent Irene Mathyssen.

- Teacher Rebecca Rajcak will be the NDP candidate in Oakville North-Burlington, ON. Educator Adnan Shahbaz is running for the Greens and Oakville town councillor Max Khan is the Liberal candidate.

- Former Winnipeg school trustee Suzanne Hrynyk will be the NDP candidate in Kildonan-St. Paul, MB. She'll be running against former NDP MLA MaryAnn Mihychuk who is running for the Liberals.

- Vancouver East: already covered.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today: David Robinson will be acclaimed as the Green candidate in Sudbury. He ran for the provincial Greens in last month's provincial election. The only candidate so far is Conservative Fred Slade, who ran for them in 2011.

This of course is an open seat, as Glenn Thibeault resigned to run in the provincial by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Businessman Jean-Roger Vigneau won the Liberal nomination in Charlevoix-Montmorency ... err, I mean Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix, QC. He'll be running against the NDP incumbent Jonathan Tremblay and former Tory MP Sylvie Boucher.

Ali Naqvi, the brother of the Ontario Liberal President (and my former MPP) Yasir Naqvi was acclaimed as the NDP candidate in Mississauga East-Cooksville, ON. He has run provincially for the NDP before. Man, family gatherings for them must be awkward. Former MPP Peter Fonseca is the Liberal candidate and the Tories are running their incumbent Wladyslaw Lizon.  

[Hatman 🍁]

Tonight:

There is a crowded field seeking the NDP nomination in the new riding of La Prairie, QC. 5 candidates are in the running. The winner will take on realtor Yves Perras of the Conservatives and St-Philippe municipal councillor Jean-Claude Poissant of the Liberals.

In Oshawa, 2008 candidate Mike Shields takes on Mary Fowler for the NDP nomination. The winner will have to take on Tory incumbent Colin Carrie.

[Hatman 🍁]

We know the seat is winnable now, too. The new boundaries make it easier too. It's all about depressing the Liberal vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Right now, I'd say Oshawa is actually a Liberal target, but they might abandon it if the NDP decides to target it as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Comrade Earl has been spending too much time fussing over regional poll breakdowns

^^^^ This.

Maybe targeting is a strong word, but Trudeaumania is lifting the Liberal boats in a lot of places, and Oshawa is no exception. But I think come election time, progressive voters in Oshawa will still vote NDP instead, even if they like Trudeau.