Canadian local elections, Fall 2012 (NS, SK, NT, YK, PE, NU) - megathread

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia goes to the polls Saturday to elect mayors and councils across the province.

The main race of course is in Halifax, where former MP Michael Savage is the front runner. Incumbent mayor Peter Kelly (a Tory) is stepping downl. Savage represented Dartmouth-Cole Harbour for the Liberals between 2004 and 2011 when he was defeated by Robert Chisholm of the NDP.

The most recent poll I can find from last month shows Savage at 67%. In 2nd place is police officer Tom Martin (13%) and in 3rd is businessman/social worker Fred Connors (10%).

2008 mayoral race

Peter Kelly (blue) vs. Liberal city councillor Sheila Fougere (red)

The Cape Breton RM, Nova Scotia's second largest municipality is also having an open seat. The front runner there is Cecil Clarke, a former Tory MLA. His main opponent is Rankin MacSween (who appears to be vaguely on the left). Clarke also ran federally for the Tories in 2011 and narrowly lost to Mark Eyking (less than 600 votes)

[Hatman 🍁]

I think if I were a Haligonian, I would vote for Fred Connors. Seems like an interesting person (vaguely left of centre): http://www.thecoast.ca/halifax/the-voice-of-passion/Content?oid=3423659

Savage will probably win all 16 districts though (note, the council has been reduced from 23 seats), making for a boring map. If the race tightens, maybe Connors can win a couple districts on the peninsula. But anti-Savage vote splitting will probably prevent that. Tom Martin, the police officer might also be a Liberal, as he ran Sheila Fougere's 2008 campaign. (she has endorsed Savage though)

For the record, I plan on using their campaign colours on any map I make. Savage is green, Connors blue and Martin is purple.

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout from 2008: http://www.cbc.ca/ns/features/municipalelections/2008-results/

Highest was in Canso (84.1%) lowest was in Truro (19.4%). Halifax was 36.2% and it was 50.4% in Cape Breton.  Province wide was 42.1%

[Hatman 🍁]

Savage and Clarke will win in landslides in their respective municipalities as their principal opponents have either declined to run or drop out.

What will be more interesting will be the city council races. The number of districts was reduced so several districts have councillors running against each other.

I assume you live in NS based on your avatar. Is there any interesting council races you want to mention? What is the general partisan make up of the HRM council?

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess municipal politics are more reflective of people's true ideology than federal or provincial elections? I know the Tories dont have any seats in the HRM provincially.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blog post! http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/10/nova-scotia-municipal-elections-2012.html

Thank you, DC Al Fine for your run down

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont think anyone is competitive in Sackville-Eastern Shore unless his name is Peter Stoffer.

[Hatman 🍁]

True. Eastern Shore was one of the PCs 3 districts in the HRM in the 2006 provincial election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Savage is easily elected. Still quite a few polls to go, but he has a 30,000 vote lead.  Clarke wins in Cape Breton, but the race is closer there. He's ahead by 10,000 votes.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, all of Cape Breton is in, Clarke wins 59% to Rankin's 38%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fisher beat Pye big time in District 6. Signs that the NDP is really unpopular in NS?

[Hatman 🍁]

There are a lot of municipal elections this Fall across the country, so I have decided to just put it all in this thread.

Halifax mayoral race final results:
Mike Savage    63,547    57.7 - elected
Tom Martin    21,912    19.9
Fred Connors    20,77    18.4
Aaron Eisses    1,628    1.5
Steve Mackie    1,458    1.3
Robert (Wesley) McCormack    1,218    1.1

Cape Breton:
Cecil Clarke    27,732    58.6 - elected
Rankin MacSween    17,847    37.7
Elizabeth Barrie    800    1.7
Glenn Jessome    660    1.4
Wilf Isaac    286    0.6

Other results from last week

Iqaluit, Nunavut (Oct 15) - open seat
John Graham: 953 (71%)
Allen Hayward: 204 (15%)
Noah Ooloonie Papatsie: 184 (14%)


Yellowknife, NWT (Oct 15) - open seat
Mark Heyck: 2008
Tim Doyle: 1465
Paul Falvo: 816

Whitehorse, Yukon (Oct 18) - open seat
Dan CURTIS   2375 (43 %)   
Rick KARP   1100 (20 %)   
Bernie PHILLIPS   988 (18 %)   
Scottie HOWELL   587 (11 %)   
Mandeep SIDHU   480 (9 %)   

Saskatchewan will hold elections on Wednesday (Oct 24). PEI is on November 5 (small municipalities though). RMs in Saskatchewan (odd numbered) are on Nov 7 while Hamlets in Nunavut go Dec 3 and in NWT on Dec 10.

[Hatman 🍁]

Fisher beat Pye big time in District 6. Signs that the NDP is really unpopular in NS?

I suppose so. That part of Dartmouth is a safe NDP seat. So it would make sense that those people would vote for an NDP'er in all but name if they were pissed at the NDP.

Anything interesting that you want to comment on from last night?

Otherwise,

Focus is now on Saskatchewan.

Most interesting race will be Regina, as it is an open seat.

Leading candidates (most recent poll numbers):

Michael Fougere (30%)
Marian Donnelly (17%)
Meka Okochi (15%) - really interesting candidate. Is an immigrant from Nigeria who is running a really good campaign.
Liz Brass (4%)

Fougere appears to be the right wing candidate while the left is split between Donnelly and Okochi.

[Hatman 🍁]

2009 maps - colours are based on the campaign colour

Regina



Fiacco's worst ward (the lightest green) had a turnout of 14%

Saskatoon


Atchison was the right wing candidate and Swystun on the left. Map shows traditional voting patterns.

[Hatman 🍁]

Savage is a left-Liberal, I think. He was big in the anti-poverty movement. My United Church minister (big time NDPer) gave him praise, and actually seemed upset when he lost (even to an NDPer) in 2011.

Regina will be an interesting race, but with the election on Wednesday, I can't see any of the candidates dropping out. Even if one did, it probably wouldn't be enough to beat Fougere.

I haven't taken a good look at Saskatoon yet, but I am disturbed that their right wing mayor's campaign slogan is "For a Progressive Saskatoon". Does that mean his main opponent is even further right?

[Hatman 🍁]

Race in Saskatoon will be close

Latest poll (from Friday)

Mayor Don Atchison - 38%
Tom Wolf - 32%

Atchison is kind of a whacky right wing mayor. Rick Mercer dubbed him Canada's craziest mayor (must have been before Rob Ford came along - but then again we had Larry O'Brien at the time) Wolf appears to be a pragmatic centrist if not slightly left of centre. He has no political experience though, and he is a public servant.

Considering the next best candidate was polling at 1%, Wolf must be the candidate the left is rallying behind in Saskatoon.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Democrats should watch the mayoral race in Moose Jaw. Former MLA Deb Higgins is running there.

[Hatman 🍁]

here's my write-up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/10/saskatchewan-municipal-elections-2012.html

[Hatman 🍁]

As expected, Savage wins every district.  Obviously, Savage did the best in the Dartmouth & Cole Harbour areas. Map coming soon.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here it is:

[Hatman 🍁]

The advance poll was the first to report and shows Fougere with narrow lead in Regina

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I think it was the advance poll. It said 0 polls reporting. Now there is 1 poll reporting, and Fougere has jumped to a 900 vote lead. Nothing in from Saskatoon yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don Atchison is re-elected in Saskatoon Election was really close:

Don ATCHISON 34489
Tom WOLF 31085
Clay MAZURKEWICH 605

Regina is slow to come in but, it looks like Fougere is sure to win
12/32 polls

FOUGERE, Michael 8794 Votes (45.0%)
DONNELLY, Marian 5630 Votes (28.8%)
OKOCHI, Meka 3353 Votes (17.2%)
BRASS, Dr. Liz 1126 Votes (5.8%)
ELLIOTT, Jim 184 Votes (0.9%)
NOVAK, Chad 179 Votes (0.9%)
WIEBE, Charles 130 Votes (0.7%)
SIEKAWITCH, Tim 81 Votes (0.4%)
BROWN, Tom 67 Votes (0.3%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Upset in Prince Albert as Mayor Jim Scarrow is defeated. No idea what's happening in Moose Jaw yet.

[Hatman 🍁]

One good thing tonight was that former NDP MLA Deb Higgins was elected mayor of Moose Jaw (apparently the first woman mayor of the city). The city also rejected adopting a ward system by referendum