Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

by-election round up:

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/09/provincial-by-elections-next-week-fort.html

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Forum was hinting towards a surprise (I assumed it meant an NDP lead) but whoa. That poll has me creaming my pants (Said that to bug Hash, he told me he's going to avoid by-election talk because of all of us dipper hacks )

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Frankly, I don't mind if the Tories win Vaughan.

But the poll does prove that Vaughan is still a safe Liberal riding. Fantino winning is just based on his popularity.

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The greatest thing about that Forum poll is it has the Tories and the Liberals TIED for second, meaning strategic anti-NDP voters wont know who to chose to stop the orange tide.

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I suppose it's fair to say that students vote NDP, grads vote Liberal?

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I was wondering where the results were. Thank god for this site!

Still really close in Kitchener-Waterloo 1% separates the Tories and NDP with 8 polls in.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP now leading by 17 votes

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Looking bad

Ha! I thought you were going to avoid this place tonight

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Fife now at 46%

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Hash, I should warn you I am splooging on the keyboard right now

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lol @ Turmel

BTW guys, it's official. Teddy has called it for the NDP

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Back of the envelope calculations put total votes in KW at 40000, putting voter turnout at 40% or so. Not bad for a byelection.

Should be higher, I think. Then again, this is Ontario provincial politics.

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I hope someone creates a wiki article for Fife so that she has a chance to win reelection.

Someone got on that: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Fife

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Old news by now, but I made a map of the Toronto-Danforth by-election

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From my site:

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Summerville losing would make me feel nice inside.

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The NDP seems to be ignoring Durham or Calgary as they have yet to have nominated candidates in either riding

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ooh O'Connor would be great

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Wait. Brock isn't even in the riding. Why would O'Connor run then?

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You must be. Durham consists solely of Uxbridge, Scugog and Clarington. No Brock.

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A good launching pad for possible redistribution?

It should be noted that Uxbridge was in the riding that he represented in provincial parliament. If you take a look at what municipalities that riding covered, and the fact that the NDP won there... wow.

[Hatman 🍁]

O'Connor wins the nomination in Durham. Dan Meades wins in Calgary Centre.

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4-3 decision with the Chief Justice dissenting. Lebel and Fish joined her dissent. Interesting. I thought McLaughlin was more of a conservative leaning CJ.

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Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

[Hatman 🍁]

Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

Greens, 20+% in Calgary. Sure they might be right, but that result has no other polls to back it up and is incredibly wacky. I'll stay skeptical for now.

They also have the Greens in 2nd place in Victoria, which is rather fun.

The Liberals winning Calgary Centre is not unfathomable. This is a by-election after all, and the riding includes a safe provincial Liberal seat (Calgary Buffalo).