Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting proposals. I like what you've done with the BC problem, but I'm not a fan of your Ontario proposals (mostly because they contradict mine ). Your Northern Ontario proposal in effect does remove a riding from the north, but in a sneaky way. As mentioned, there is no need to do this. The average riding size in Northern Ontario is actually closer than the provincial average now than 10 years ago.

I don't like your Essex Northwest district, as it's not very compact, and it connects North Essex and West Essex through a small narrow part. I think my proposal deals with the Essex situation. Although, your proposal would be better for the NDP, as Essex NW would be a good pick up opportunity.

As for Simcoe County, I think while your proposal isn't bad, I think the more likely scenario will be dividing Barrie in half. That's what the commission usually does in these types of scenarios. Splitting off only a bit of the city might not make sense to the commission. Why put some of Barrie in an urban riding, and put some into one of those rurban ridings, when you can have two rurban ridings? I do hate rurban ridings in general, but it's Barrie. It's not like it's really that urban. It's suburban.

Anyways, don't let my criticisms discourage you. I love seeing other people's proposals and debating them. You've done a lot of hard work, and I hope to see some more of them.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh I see, you count Parry Sound-Muskoka as being outside of Northern Ontario. I've been counting it as part of it, hence the confusion.

As for Essex, I see no reason to keep all of Windsor's suburbs in one riding. Especially if they are on two different sides of the city.  But, your proposal isn't the first I've seen to do this, so maybe I'm in the minority.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh I see, you count Parry Sound-Muskoka as being outside of Northern Ontario.

Not me. I'm just accepting the Ontario government's definition. By its definition, the present Parry Sound--Muskoka riding's 91,263 residents are 58,047 in southern Ontario (64%) and 33,216 in Northern Ontario.

Yeah, most of the riding is in Northern Ontario. I suppose it's possible the commission will split Parry Sound and Muskoka up, but they've been historically together, and are very similar places. Both Districts are the epitome of cottage country, and are very Anglo-Protestant. It's not like the rest of Northern Ontario, which has different industries, and is more Catholic, more French, and has a fair number of Italians too. The only think that keeps Parry Sound in the North is the geography. It's part of the Canadian shield, and is full of lakes and mosquitoes.  

[Hatman 🍁]

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Nice map. Here's my version (no map, sorry):

I assume five ridings largely unchanged since 1996 need no change: TORONTO—DANFORTH (2.2% under quotient), BEACHES—EAST YORK (0.7% above quotient), SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST (2.2% above quotient), SCARBOROUGH CENTRE (5.2% above quotient), and SCARBOROUGH—GUILDWOOOD (4.5% above quotient). Similarly in the west end four electoral districts which are almost unchanged since 1996 need no change: DAVENPORT (3.8% under), PARKDALE—HIGH PARK (1.2% under), YORK SOUTH—WESTON (9.6% over) and EGLINTON—LAWRENCE (6.4% over).

One big change would start with about 62,500 residents from the present Scarborough—Rouge River (currently 27% over quotient) uniting with the Scarborough portion of the present Pickering—Scarborough East (assumed to be about 46,500 residents) to form a renamed SCARBOROUGH EAST with about 109,000 residents, 2.5 per cent over quotient. About 72,600 residents from the old Scarborough—Rouge River would combine with about 36,500 from the present Scarborough—Agincourt (currently only 5.3 per cent over quotient) to form a renamed SCARBOROUGH-ARMADALE with about 109,100 residents, 2.58 per cent over quotient. The dominos would continue as the new electoral district of SCARBOROUGH—DON VALLEY NORTH (north of 401) takes about 75,500 from the present Scarborough—Agincourt, about 18,300 from the present Willowdale east of Leslie, and about 15,000 from the present Don Valley East which will need to pick up about 12,400 residents from the present Don Valley West.

A second big change would be downtown where the surplus 35,700 from TRINITY—SPADINA (36% over quotient) and the south 73,300 of the present Toronto Centre (22.5% over) would be combined as a new TORONTO HARBOUR with a population of about 109,000 (about 2.5 per cent over quotient). ST. PAULS (9.5% over quotient) would remain largely unchanged since 1996, but would give its surplus 7,500 to combine with the remaining 57,000 residents of old Toronto Centre and about 44,500 from the present Don Valley West to form ROSEDALE—LEASIDE, again with a population of about 109,000. From the present Don Valley West (16% over quotient) about 12,700 will shift to DON VALLEY EAST (currently 4.7% over) to give it a population of about 109,000 after it loses about 15,000 residents to the new SCARBOROUGH—DON VALLEY NORTH. About 66,300 residents in the present Don Valley West will form a renamed electoral district of ORIOLE shifted north, taking about 42,600 from the present Willowdale (east of Bayview) to give ORIOLE a population of about 108,900.

Meanwhile ETOBICOKE—LAKESHORE (currently 15.6% over quotient) would have a population of about 109,000 after it gives up about 14,000 residents to ETOBICOKE CENTRE (currently 6.8% over) which in turn has about 109,000 after it gives up about 18,600 to ETOBICOKE NORTH to leave it with about 109,000 after a renamed YORK WEST—ETOBICOKE NORTH takes about 21,000 from Etobicoke North. The present York West gives up about 20,000 to YORK CENTRE (now 11.3% over) leaving it with about 109,000 after it in turn gives about 29,500 to WILLOWDALE (already 32% over quotient), which will shift to the west as all three domino chains meet. The present Willowdale will give up about 18,300 to the new SCARBOROUGH—DON VALLEY NORTH and about 42,600 to the north-shifted Don Valley West renamed ORIOLE, so a cross-401 configuration at the Don Valley continues.

Interesting. Not a bad proposal, and one that I think the commission might go with. Toronto Harbour is a riding that I think DL has suggested might be created, and would be heavily populated with all those condo developments. Would be interesting to see how a riding like that would vote. Of course, 10 years from now the riding will be way over populated again.

[Hatman 🍁]

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Hard to believe those boundaries lasted 16 years. Why didn't they do anything in the early 1990s? What was the formula they used? I really wish Ontario had separate provincial ridings again.

[Hatman 🍁]

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Not very different from mine:

OTTAWA—PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL

The City of Ottawa has a population of 883,391, 8.306 quotients. Russell is partly within the Ottawa metropolitan area. Prescott & Russell has a population of 85,381, 0.8028 quotients. Together they deserve 9 electoral districts, each with an average population of 107,641, 1.21 per cent over quotient. Note that it is no longer necessary to include Mississippi Mills with Ottawa, nor to include North Glengarry with Prescott & Russell. This adds one new electoral district.

It seems likely that OTTAWA—VANIER with population 103,687 (2.56 per cent below quotient), OTTAWA CENTRE with population 114,043 (7.22 above quotient) and OTTAWA WEST—NEPEAN with population 111,457 (4.79 per cent above quotient) might be unchanged. The present Glengarry—Prescott—Russell will, after removing North Glengarry, have a population of 101,961, 4.14 per cent below quotient, and might simply be renamed PRESCOTT—RUSSELL—CUMBERLAND (recognizing that 16% of its residents are within the City of Ottawa). The remaining 537,624 Ottawa residents will form five electoral districts with an average population of 107,525, 1.10 per cent over quotient.  A new electoral district (OTTAWA—BARRHAVEN?) will need to be inserted between the present Nepean—Carleton which has 159,032 residents (49.5 per cent above quotient), and the remaining 137,384 in the present Carleton—Mississippi Mills after removing Mississippi Mills (29.17 per cent over quotient), while adjusting the boundaries of the present OTTAWA—ORLEANS with population 119,287 (12.16 per cent above quotient), and OTTAWA SOUTH with population 121,921 (14.63 per cent above quotient). I have not attempted to design these.

I hope and suggest that then new riding will be named Rideau-Carleton. As for adding the name "Cumberland" to Prescott-Russell, that's not necessary, as Cumberland is part of the historic Russell County. And why remove North Glengarry anyways?

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My version:

HALTON AND PEEL

With a population of 1,798,483 people, 16.91 electoral quotients, this region deserves 17 electoral districts with an average of 105,793 people each: 12.19 in Peel, 4.72 in Halton. Since it has 12 present electoral districts (counting the two that straddle the GTA as one-half each) it will have 5 new electoral districts. Halton Hills has 59,008, more than half a quotient. Halton Hills is a natural extension of the northwest portion of Brampton, joined by Highway 401 and the Go Train.  The balance of Halton has 441,869, 4.155 quotients, calling for 4 districts, one more than the present 3. No electoral district would straddle the boundary of the Greater Toronto Area (Peel, Halton, York and Durham Regions).

PEEL

Mississauga’s population is 713,443, enough for 7 districts (which I have not attempted to delineate) each on average 4.17 per cent below quotient, two of which are new districts.

Brampton, Caledon and Halton Hills have 642,379, 6.04 quotients, just right for 6 districts, two more than at present. Peel and Halton Hills thus gets four new electoral districts.

HALTON HILLS—BRAMPTON MOUNT PLEASANT would combine Halton Hills (population 59,008) with about 47,000 residents in the northwest neighbourhood of Brampton based on its Ward 6. Its population would be about 106,008, about 0.33 per cent below quotient; 56 per cent of it is within the present electoral district of Wellington—Halton Hills. Mount Pleasant and Georgetown (in Halton Hills) are stations on the same Go Train line, joined also by Highway 401. A Halton Hills--Caledon alignment might have been possible, but Halton Hills is more aligned to the Mount Pleasant neighbourhood than it is to Caledon, and it would be 11.39 per cent over quotient, while everywhere else in southern Ontario the proposed electoral districts are within 10 per cent of quotient.

CALEDON—BRAMPTON HEART LAKE would unite Caledon (population 59,460) with the northern portion (based on Ward 2) of the City of Brampton with about 47,000 residents. Its population would be about 106,460, about 0.09 per cent above quotient; 56 per cent of it is within the present Dufferin—Caledon. When the 2002 Commission proposed an alignment of Caledon with Ward 10, this sparked considerable opposition; Ward 2 will be a better fit.

BRAMPTON CENTRE would be based on Wards 1 & 5, BRAMPTON SOUTH on Wards 3 & 4, BRAMPTON—BRAMALEA on Wards 7 & 8, and BRAMPTON—GORE on Wards 9 & 10. This is the same ward pattern that is used for Brampton City Council. Each would have on average a population of about 107,478, about 1.05 per cent above quotient. Both BRAMPTON CENTRE and BRAMPTON SOUTH are more than half within the present Brampton West which has swollen to hold 1.92 electoral quotients.

HALTON

Oakville, Burlington and Milton have 442,661 residents, 4.162 electoral quotients, making 4 electoral districts, each on average 4.05 per cent over quotient. Halton Hills has been dealt with above.

The electoral district of OAKVILLE with about 110,000 residents (3.4 per cent over quotient) would be based on wards 2, 3, 5, & 6 of the City of Oakville, whose City population is 182,520.

MILTON—OAKVILLE would combine Milton (population 84,362) with about 26,500 residents of Oakville (part of Ward 4), for a total of about 110,862, about 4.23 per cent over quotient.

The new electoral district of BURLINGTON—BRONTE (population about 110,820, about 4.19 per cent above quotient) would combine about 64,800 residents in Burlington with the remaining 46,020 residents of Oakville including its ward 1.

BURLINGTON—ALDERSHOT with about 110,979 residents (4.34 per cent over quotient) would comprise the balance of Burlington (whose City population is 175,779).

Not a fan of connecting parts of Brampton with Caledon or Halton Hills. I can't see the commission doing this at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

That might be necessary. Or removing some municipalities from Dufferin.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think one reason that North Glengarry is in a different riding is that there is a large Francophone population there, and it makes sense to put it with a Francophone riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

It seems bizarre that provincially Toronto used the old ward names, despite not being in existence for 100 years. Speaking of which, why is St. Paul's called that? There was never a municipal ward named that.

All of this got me thinking about a project for a rainy day: Create a separate set of provincial electoral districts for Ontario

[Hatman 🍁]

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North Glengarry is 33% French home language. South Glengarry is 17% French home language. Cornwall is 15% French home language. North Stormont is 17% French home language. The UC of SD&G is 13% French home language. It is a bilingual district. North Glengarry is a normal part of it, just slightly more francophone.

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Good. How many? And how many in the North? And why isn't anyone asking Dalton McGuinty his intentions? The NDP would certainly co-operate in keeping the north well-represented. He "persuaded" Elizabeth Witmer nicely. Has he been quietly offering to preserve the seat of any floor-crosser? Logically, he should.

Well, as mentioned, I'm not familiar with how the commission did it in the past. Would you happen to know? If it was up to me, Ontario would have ~750 ridings, but that's not going to happen

[Hatman 🍁]

While MMP would be nice, we'll have to wait a few years for that to be considered again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Shame... it won't happen unless McGuinty is pushed and i doubt he would be.

so... what would ON 151 ridings look like then? at 85K per riding... sounds fun to try it out!

Well these areas would make automatic ridings:

Elgin
Prescott-Russell
Nipissing
Northumberland
Cochrane

Pickering
Clarington
Milton
Niagara Falls

[Hatman 🍁]

Nova Scotia analysis now up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/07/nova-scotia-federal-riding-boundary.html

[Hatman 🍁]

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Good summary, except you didn't address my major concern: Halifax has 4.66 quotients. Why isn't there a fifth Halifax-based seat?

I did hint towards the fact that the riding of Halifax was oversized. Personally, I wouldn't create a 5th Halifax riding. The area can be over populated a little bit, considering I would keep the 2 Cape Breton ridings under populated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Under my proposal, the average non Cape Breton based riding becomes 87,000. That means Halifax would have to lose 5000 people. You add that to the South Shore riding, and it gets 88,000 people. Maybe move a bit more of that riding into West Nova, while taking a chunk of that riding and putting it in with Kings-Hants, while removing the Shubenacadie area of that riding. Any surplus can go to Cumberland-Colchester. If Sackville gets too big, you can have Central Nova take some of it. Of course, that doesn't take into consideration the split of Bedford which I would try to fix...

[Hatman 🍁]

Why can't they simply add a bit more of Halifax to SSSM and give a bit more of SSSM to West Nova and thereby equalize the populations and make SSSM even more of a "rurban" seat?

That's what I suggested, but I am against making West Nova too anglophone.

[Hatman 🍁]

West Nova is already about 90%+ anglophone isn't it? The Acadian community is a teeny-weeny area of that seat.

It's 15% Francophone. No need to make it less..

[Hatman 🍁]

It seems bizarre that provincially Toronto used the old ward names, despite not being in existence for 100 years. Speaking of which, why is St. Paul's called that? There was never a municipal ward named that.

I'm not exactly sure about this, but I believe that it may be named for St. Paul's Methodist (later United) on Avenue Road.

Strange to name a riding after a church. But at least it's a United Church!

[Hatman 🍁]

Hopefully this proposal gets taken out to the back and shot in the head. I think I just threw up a bit. 

Wait, is this some sort of practical joke? Ok guys, where's the real proposal?

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm doing a write up on Western Quebec, next. I guess it's "OK". I'm not sure what to think of the Outaouais district. It does connect similar areas, but one can't ignore they are two areas that haven't been in the same riding in a long time. And there's this big river diving them. The name is my big beef (would call it Hull-Gatineau). The other two Gatineau ridings look very nice and compact. I would change their names too. Aylmer would be Aylmer--Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais. And Petite Nation (which makes no sense, as the seigneury and the Petite-Nation river are not in the riding) would become Gatineau--Du Lievre.

[Hatman 🍁]

I feel Im going to have to find my historic Quebec counties map in an effort to try and re-name all of these ridings...

[Hatman 🍁]

Why not name that riding "Royal Road" (Chemin Royal)

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's some suggested names (submitted for your approval)

Abitibi--Nunavik: Vallee-de-l'Or--Jamesie--Kativik
Abitibi--Temiscamingue: Abitibi--Temiscamingue--Rouyn-Noranda
Alfred-Dubuc: Jonquiere--Le Fjord
Alfred-Pellan: Laval East
Anne-Hebert: Portneuf--Champlain
Aylmer: Aylmer--Les Collines
Beauce: Beauce--Frontenac
Bourassa: Montreal-Nord--Sault-au-Recollet
Brome--Missisquoi: No change.
Cap-Roughe: Cap-Rouge--L'Ancienne-Lorette
Charlevoix--Saguenay: Chicoutimi--La Baie--Charlevoix
Chateauguay: Chateauguay--Napierville
Compton--Stanstead: No change.
Cote-de-Beaupre: Montmorency--Jacques-Cartier
Cure-Labelle: Riviere-du-Nord--Sainte-Anne (for Ste Anne des Lacs, and Ste Anne des Plaines)
Denis-Benjamin-Viger: Pierrefonds--Dollard--Ile-Bizard
Drummond: No change.
Elzear-Bernier: Rivere-du-Loup--Montmagny
Etienne-Parent: Charlesbourg--Beauport
Gaspesie--Les-Iles: Gaspesie--Les-Iles-de-la-Maedeleine
George-Etienne-Cartier: Ahuntsic--Cartierville--Vertu
Gilles-Villeneuve: Berthier--Maskinonge
Hautes-Laurentides--Pontiac: Pontiac--Papineau--Labelle
Hochelaga: Hochelaga-Maisonneuve--Mercier
Idola-Saint-Jean: Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie
John-Peters-Humphrey: Mount Royal--Cote-Saint-Luc--Hampstead
Joliette: Joliette--Matawinie
La Chute: Argenteuil--Mirabel--Deux-Montagnes
Lachine--LaSalle: No change.
Lac-Saint-Jean: No change.
Lac-Saint-Louis: No change.
Laurentides: No change.
Levis: Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere
Lignery: Laprairie
Longueuil: Longueuil--Saint-Hubert--Boucherville
Lotbiniere--Megantic: No change.
Louis-Frechette: Levis--Etchemins--Bellechasse

To be continued

Given that the commission is clearly trolling us, I feel like seriously proposing the name 'Justin-Bieber' for the new Perth-Wellington riding.

And "Avril-Lavigne" for Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington and St. Paul's can be renamed "Drake" ... and "Russell-Peters" for Bramalea Gore Malton

[Hatman 🍁]

Gatineau Centre might sound like a good name, but I think it might anger some Hullois still angry over amalgamation. "Hull--Gatineau" is the better name.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more of my proposed names

MacDonald-Langstaff: Saint-Laurent--Roxboro
Manicouagan: Cote-Nord
Maurice-Richard: Ahuntsic--Saint-Michel--Saint-Leonard
Mille-Iles: Blainville--Mile-Iles
Montarville: Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert--Saint-Basile
Montreal-Est: Montreal-Est--Anjou--Tetreaultville
Nicolas-Vincent: Saint-Charles
Outaouais: Hull--Gatineau
Outremont: Outremont--Cote-des-Neiges
Ozias-Leduc: Chambly--Rouville
Papineau: Villeray--Parc-Extension
Paul-Comtois: Nicolet--Yamaska--Richelieu

More to come