Alberta 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

Most personable party leader ever?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5P5OxlP6KY

I remember that. It was right after she became leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

Added the 2004 Senate nominee map:

[Hatman 🍁]

New prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/04/2012-alberta-election-prediction-april.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary is like one big suburb. There are a few areas that are more left leaning, but they will be drowned in roses.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's amusing how left wing the Liberals are considering their leader is a former Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Things are getting interesting...

New Leger poll:

WRP: 35.5 (-6)
PC: 34 (-)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Lib: 12.5 (+3)

Edmonton (the media fabricated NDP surge in the city has created just that...)
PC: 33 (-4)
WRP: 24 (-1)
NDP: 23 (+3)
Lib: 15 (+3)

Calgary
WRP: 43 (-5)
PC: 29 (-4)
Lib: 16 (+5)
NDP: 8 (+1)

Rest
PC: 41 (+11) !!!
WRP: 40 (-14)
NDP: 8 (+1)
Lib: 6 (+1)

Junk poll, conducted over Easter, or reality?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, in the extremely unlikely event of a minority government, I suppose it's possible for either of the Libs or NDP to form the balance of power. Perhaps propping up a Tory government. That would be weird. However, the WRP and the PCs would have to divide nearly equally to get that to happen.

[Hatman 🍁]

Filed under "no sh**"

[Hatman 🍁]

1993 election map

[Hatman 🍁]

1989

[Hatman 🍁]

Back to polls now, the Leger poll was most definitely an outlier. 2 new polls:

Forum Research

WRP: 43 (n/c)
PC: 31 (+2)
NDP: 11 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-3)

ThinkHQ

WRP: 43 (n/c)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 13 (+1)
Lib: 12 (+1)

so yeah, no major shifts...

ThinkHQ breakdown

Edmonton:
WRP: 30 (-1)
PC: 30 (n/c)
NDP: 18 (+1)
Lib: 17 (-1)

Calgary:
WRP: 48 (+1)
PC: 26 (-3)
Lib: 13 (+2)
NDP: 10 (+3)

Rest:
WRP: 49
PC: 31
NDP: 11
Lib: 5

Forum Research

Edmonton
PC: 32 (-1)
WRP: 29 (+3)
NDP: 18 (n/c)
Lib: 16 (n/c)

Calgary
WRP: 50 (+2)
PC: 32 (+6)
Lib: 8 (-6)
NDP: 8 (n/c)

North
WRP: 49 (n/c)
PC: 32 (+3)
Lib: 6 (-3)
NDP: 5 (-2)

South
WRP: 52 (-5)
PC: 25 (+1)
Lib: 10 (+2)
NDP: 9 (+3)

More statistical noise.

[Hatman 🍁]

Debate is tonight. Wondering if I will watch it, since the Sens are playing their first playoff game tonight.

[Hatman 🍁]

You're seriously considering Albertan politics over the NHL playoffs? wtf is wrong with you?

Maybe because I love politics more. And, we're only talking the first round here. The Sens will probably lose anyways. Realigning elections in Alberta only happen every 40 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sherman would've been better if he didn't pause so much. He ran out of time on several caissons because he spent too much time pausing. I think this debate will further help the Liberals tank in this election, and it might boost the NDP a bit. Mason did a solid job, as did the two ladies. Very entertaining debate. I'm glad I watched it, and not the end of that disastrous hockey game.

[Hatman 🍁]

oh btw, I heard on CBC that Smith is pro-choice and pro gay marriage, so...

[Hatman 🍁]

Libertarianish, yes. But, he party wont be that Libertarian I don't think.

BTW, another poll (Corporate Research)

WRP 43 (-3) (jeepers, every polling firm has them at that number!)
PC 34 (+6)
NDP 10 (n/c)
Lib 10 (-2)

[Hatman 🍁]

What kind of name is Raj Sherman, anyway?

Lots of South Asians with English surnames. Think of Russell Peters.

[Hatman 🍁]

LOL at the 11% who thought Sherman was the best speaker.

"Looked and sounded like a Premier" was an interesting question. Especially considering you have two women, and Indian and well, the NDP guy. Not traditional Premier qualities.

[Hatman 🍁]

His message would have been better could he speak less choppily.

[Hatman 🍁]

A new Abacus poll:

WRP: 46 (+3)
PC: 29 (-1)
NDP: 12 (+1)
Lib: 10 (-2)

The poll also confirms that Liberal voters are heading to the Tories. 28% of '08 Liberals are now backing the Tories compared to a 40% retention and just 18% who are switching to the WRP. NDP voters aren't switching to the Tories though, only 12% are switching to them compared to 14% to the WRP (57% retention).

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't like the Sarah Palin comparisons, Danielle Smith is much more moderate, and is well... more well spoken. She knows her stuff.

[Hatman 🍁]

They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

[Hatman 🍁]

Thank you RogueBeaver and EarlAW.

Much appreciated.

In that case, from what both of you seem to agree on, the election would appear to be all but over except for the vote counting.

Yeah, the parties have been stagnant since the beginning of the campaign. No one has any momentum, so the WRP will probably coast to victory.

[Hatman 🍁]

They have failed. Polling hasn't suggested any late movements... so far.

BTW, this is a great site whose webmaster just emailed me: http://changealberta.ca/winnablecandidates.aspx

I saw that site last week, but it seems a bit heavily weighted for the Liberals. Of course, I'm glad when the "united" left gets it wrong, but I think if I were them, I'd switch E-Riverview and E-Gold Bar around. Both are largely covered by the E-Strathcona federal riding, but Gold Bar generally voted Conservative, while Riverview (south of the river) voted NDP federally. Of course, of the two, Riverview is probably the riding more likely to stay in the hands of either the Liberals or NDP, which is part of the reason I think the site is a bit biased to the Liberals.

Well, I compared it to my projections, and I found it to be more NDP friendly than my predictions, so I don't know...

Hatman, when's your final projection going up?

I plan on two more projections, one tomorrow and one on Sunday.

[Hatman 🍁]

Expect some different numbers in my next projection, as I compile a lot of feedback I have got, plus that strategic vote site, that seems to be getting some "on the ground" feedback which I wish I could get (well, I'm getting some at least).