Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Hatman 🍁]

Duceppe is now in permanent retirement due to an ethics scandal.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-wake-of-probe-report-duceppe-says-hes-finished-with-active-politics/article2310851/

Legault will be running against Scott McKay in L'Assomption- Parizeau's old riding.

Should win it, as the ADQ has held it before.

BTW, I love separatists with very English names. Lol  "Scott McKay"

[Hatman 🍁]

Why? The PQ has held that riding, which formerly belonged to Parizeau, since 1989. '07 was a fluke. In a tight 2007-style race which we're now seeing it should be rated as Tossup.

On another note: some Peqs are worried about ceding most of north-central Montreal to QS if they somehow negotiate an electoral pact.

CAQ should win most of the 2007 ADQ seats, especially the one where their popular leader is running.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd rather have the notional results for Alberta at this point.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'll see what I can do... I have a bit on with work at the moment, too, so squeezing in what I can, when I can. I'll definitely give Alberta a shot, too. I think I have all the poll maps and poll results handy, so it's just a matter of adding and subtracting the relevant polls from the relevant districts.

Excellent!

[Hatman 🍁]

A new Léger Marketing-La Presse poll

http://www.ledevoir.com/documents/pdf/sondage_revise_10mars.pdf

PQ: 33%
PLQ: 28%
CAQ: 24%
QS: 6%
GRN: 4%
ON: 2%

PQ is near majority with those numbers.

lol at CAQ

[Hatman 🍁]

Rates should be the same as they are in English Canada.

I agree. It should be 0 for everybody!

I personally admire the protests. I wish students in Ontario had the balls to do this. Maybe our tuition wouldn't be so high.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/Charest+expected+call+election+just+riding/6542677/story.html

no general election this summer but a by-election

Finally. What's the hold up? It's a (semi) safe Liberal seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

That would be terrible ... as I am going on vacation in early August and would miss some critical blogging time

[Hatman 🍁]

They stuck with him in '93, they'll stick with him now.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1226136--hebert-sherbrooke-will-be-ground-zero-in-charest-s-battle-to-remain-quebec-premier

I agree with Hebert. He's in trouble there.

[Hatman 🍁]

They stuck with him in '93, they'll stick with him now.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1226136--hebert-sherbrooke-will-be-ground-zero-in-charest-s-battle-to-remain-quebec-premier

I agree with Hebert. He's in trouble there.

I concur. Charest almost lost in 2007 and Sherbrooke is the city with the biggest percentage of students in Quebec. Some local businessman are angry at him, because students are a significant part of their clientele and the hike would reduce their other expenses, so they would buy less.

Heh. Probably one of the few business owners to support the students.

I suppose it is fitting that Sherbrooke is represented by the youngest MP in Canadian history.

[Hatman 🍁]

Having an early September election is a good way to hinder the student vote. Coincidence?

[Hatman 🍁]

QS winning more than two seats barring some phenomenal surge which seems quite unlikely, would be a massive upset and anybody who seriously thinks they could win more than 2 at this point is certainly delusional or a hack who should smell the coffee. I seriously doubt the QS vote will end up being 9-10% on election day anyway.

While I agree they probably wont win more than 2 seats, I can't help but giggle, because you could easily replace QS with "NDP" and have the same quote from April 2011.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are we getting an election call next week?

[Hatman 🍁]

So i'm hearing about another party, been around since last year; UCQ, Union Citoyenne du Quebec... a leftwing federalist party (is the PLQ scared yet? lol). I've just noticed this on a Quebecois NPD friends facebook page. So far seem to be very Urban, very MTL focused

http://www.cbc.ca/quebecam/2012/07/23/union-citoyenne-du-quebec-seeks-to-pick-up-support-among-progressive-federalists/

conversation with the coordinater

Finally, a party I can support!

[Hatman 🍁]

That's what happens when you post Eric Grenier (308.com) crap. Even if he's masquerading as a "journalist" for the G&M.

[Hatman 🍁]

First Quebec prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/08/quebec-2012-election-prediction-map.html (Warning: based solely on regional uniform swings!)  I will skew the numbers over time to reflect the real goings-on.

[Hatman 🍁]

Their chart uses "identity" on their y axis and "socio economic" for the x axis.

It says I cam closest to the Greens on the chart, but I agree with ON the most.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nearly identical, but of course, you always have to be slightly more right wing than me. You must be against gay marriage or something

[Hatman 🍁]

Breaking down the FR poll (change is from 2008 election; CAQ change is from ADQ)

Montreal area
PQ 34 (-2)
PLQ 33 (-11)
CAQ 22 (+11)
QS 7 (+2)
Oth 3 (-1)

Quebec City area
CAQ 37 (+8)
PLQ 35 (-4)
PQ 22 (-5)
QS 3 (n/c)
Oth 2 (+1)

North shore
PQ 36 (-5)
PLQ 34 (-7)
CAQ 21 (+7)
QS 5 (+2)
Oth 3 (+1)

South shore
PQ 39 (+5)  whoa
PLQ 28 (-13)
CAQ 24 (+3)
QS 6 (+3)
Oth 2 (n/c)

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger poll break downs (change fro 2008 election)

Montreal Island ("the 514")
PLQ: 40 (-12)
PQ: 25 (-5)
CAQ: 14 (+8)
QS: 12 (+5)
Oth: 9 (+4)

Montreal suburbs ("the 450")
CAQ: 34 (+19) (holy smokes!)
PQ: 32 (-9)
PLQ: 29 (-9)
QS: 3 (n/c)
Oth: 2 (-1)

Quebec City RMR
CAQ: 37 (+8)
PLQ: 27 (-12)
PQ: 24 (-3)
QS: 4 (+1)
Oth: 8 (+7)

ROQ
PQ: 38 (+1)
PLQ: 28 (-13)
CAQ: 27 (+9)
QS: 4 (+1)
Oth: 4 (+2)

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP has more ambiguous breakdowns, so I'll just do the 514:

PLQ: 37 (-16)
PQ: 24 (-6)
QS: 15 (+8)
CAQ: 14 (+8)
Oth: 5 (n/c)

[Hatman 🍁]

Teaser! My next prediction will show the following:

PQ: 57
PLQ: 45
CAQ: 17
QS: 2
Ties: 4 (2 PQ-CAQ; 1 PLQ-PQ; 1 PLQ-CAQ)

So, a PQ minority

[Hatman 🍁]

It's up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/08/quebec-2012-election-prediction-map_13.html

[Hatman 🍁]

I like the shade of blue you've used for CAQ - it differentiates quite nicely from the Aqua/Teal/bluey-green of the PQ.

EDIT: I hope you don't mind - I copied your blue colour scheme into my "shading tones" file, where I keep all those colour schemes in the one handy place.

Thanks. I was getting complaints that it was hard to distinguish between the two. I also noticed that the PQ doesn't actually use that shade on their site or on their logo, but it seems to be their traditional colour. Oh well.

I'm also having issues with blogger (what else is new?). Whenever I try to edit a post with a table, it removes the table. It making this very difficult... For now, the table is going to have to look like that.

[Hatman 🍁]

Going to be posting older maps here: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/p/quebec-maps.html so far I have 2007 & 2008.