Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa-Orleans makes no sense. There's no way the Conservatives can be ahead by that much if they're tied province-wide. The whole Ottawa sample seems entirely f-ed up (Orleans, Centre, South...).

Obvious telephone exchange border issues, I reckon.

Here is a map of the numbers: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/09/forum-poll-riding-by-riding-map.html

  Interesting map.  It looks like almost all of rural Ontario is Tory, but the GTA still largely Liberal.  Sort of like the federal election in 2006 or 2008 in Ontario, thus showing the fallacy of uniform swings.  Not too surprising either as the Ekos poll showed over 80% of Ontarioans planned to vote for the same party they voted for federally. 

My one question is about the riding of Perth-Wellington.  Is their MPP really popular personally as this is a pretty solid Tory riding federally and their MP is a pretty average one and asides from Stratford being a bit more liberal, the riding seems just as conservative as the neighbouring ones on the whole.

Must be personal popularity.

[Hatman 🍁]

My numbers have the NDP winning Kingston.

Not happening.

No mention of Ottawa Centre in that article, eh? Boy, it's getting depressing.

[Hatman 🍁]

I really don't see the NDP getting 30%, but here's hoping.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apparently those new riding polls have the NDP in the lead in Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Sudbury, but still down in Thunder Bay-Superior North.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here they all are  (bc the images weren't working well)

Trinity-Spadina:

Rosario Marchese NDP: 47%

Sarah Thomson Lib: 33%

Mike Yen Con: 12%

Tim Grant Green: 7%

 

Timmins-James Bay:

Gilles Bisson NDP: 46.9%

Al Spacek Con: 33.4%

Leonard Rickard Lib: 15.4%

Angela Plant Green: 2.8%

 

Thunder Bay-Superior North:

Michael Gravelle Lib: 34.9%

Steve Mantis NDP: 33.9%

Anthony LeBlack Con: 25.4%

Scott Kyle Green: 5.3%

 

Thunder Bay-Atikokan:

Mary Kozorys NDP: 37.4%

Bill Mauro Lib: 32%

Fred Gilbert Con: 26%

Jonathan Milnes Green: 4.2%

 

Sudbury:

Paul Loewenberg NDP: 37.9%

Rick Bartolucci Lib: 37%

Gerry Labelle Con: 19.3%

Pat Rogerson Green: 4.1%

 

Parkdale-High Park:

Cheri DiNovo NDP: 46.7%

Cortney Pasternak Lib: 32%

Joe Ganetakos Con: 15.3%

Justin Trottier Green: 4.6%

 

Bramalea-Gore-Malton:

Jagmeet Singh NDP: 34.1%

Kuldip Kular Lib: 31.6%

Sanjeev Manji Con: 26.4%

Pauline Thomhan Green: 6%

 

Beaches-East York:

Michael Prue NDP: 44.1%

Helen Burstyn Lib: 33.1%

Chris Menary Con: 17.8%

Shawn Ali Green: 2.5%

 

York South-Weston:

Paul Ferriera NDP: 44%

Laura Albanese Lib: 36%

Lan Daniel Con: 15.2%

Keith Jarret Green: 3.3%


I'm disappointed that they didn't do Ottawa Centre.

I'll have to look at our numbers, run some math and make a deduction from that.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was checking out Singh's facebook page the other day, and his campaign videos are all shot in the neighbourhoods, and the place looks like suburban hell. Not the kind of place that votes NDP.  So, good news all around.

And yeah, I think the Liberals will probably win Ottawa Centre at this point. It's a lot like those downtown Toronto ridings where the Liberals are getting a bump from people scared of the Tories even though strategic votes make no sense there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus Reid

PC: 34 (-2)
Lib: 33 (+1)
NDP: 26 (-)
Grn: 6 (-)

Usually the NDP vote goes down in these close races.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brampton-Springdale is another possible future pick up in the region, due to the high Indo-Canadian population

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't trust the 308 guy for anything, so it's no comfort reading his numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, 308 is a joke. He's like the new Dick Morris, some failed/flawed number-geek who is fed by the idiot media who wants to look hip with some articles from a "guy who crunches polls".

Came across some guy who said he normally voted NDP but was voting Liberal this time Nice to fall across.

He also dismesses many of his criticisms when people make them via comments.

When the elections is over, I'm going to advertise how much better I did. Maybe the media will take notice and not feed him so much.

[Hatman 🍁]

Based on our marks, I have estimated that the Liberals have a one point lead here in Ottawa Centre (37-36). The Green vote has totally collapsed, and all the other parties are up from last time.

[Hatman 🍁]

No. If McGuinty loses by one seat, he steps down. If wins the PV but not the seat count, he may form an accord a la 87.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Dalton McGuinty nicknamed 'Dad' by the way?

He's a nanny statist father knows best kind of guy

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, the pit bull genocide. (the canine equivelant of a genocide)

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP's position on selling alcohol in convenience stores (that it should remain illegal) doesn't make any sense. It's the one major issue I have with the platform.

Also what other issues in the platform do you have a problem with for curiosity as I don't think there is a single person out there who agrees with anyone party on every single issue.  You vote for the party who you agree with the most.  After all you take 10 different issues and you put ten people in a room and ask each for the opinion on each issue, I doubt a single person would give the same answer to all ten questions.

It's true, convenience stores here have to compete with their Quebec counterparts who can sell liquor. In fact, with the tax difference, many people go to Quebec anyways for booze.

There are other parts of the platform I oppose, but that's one of them. I suppose not wanting to do away with the Catholic school board is another big issue, but it's not been brought up this campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

So?

I know endorsements don't necessarily mean anything, but Desmon Tutu just endrosed Anil Nadoo In Ottawa Centre? who knew eh!

http://www.icontact-archive.com/yiOThMH64xlcbGhSe3uwC-RAQ4Lq6EPD?w=1

Yeah, it's all the buzz in the campaign office.


By the way, some of the polls out today show a bit of a dip in the NDP vote, so Im a bit concerned.

[Hatman 🍁]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

[Hatman 🍁]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

Maybe, but it seems like nothing will convince those idiots. (sorry, it's morning and I'm running on very little sleep)

[Hatman 🍁]

Have things really stalled that much in Ottawa Centre?

They also didn't cover London-Fanshawe, yet looked at both LNC and LW?

because London-Fanshawe is in the bag for the NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

Those Toronto numbers are a tad low. However, I think it is safe to say the NDP will win 6 seats there.

[Hatman 🍁]

I also wont be available on election night, as I will be at the "victory" party. But, I will be tweeting throughout the evening, if anyone has twitter.

[Hatman 🍁]

Andrew Lister is really stepping up his game. He's littered Innes with a string of 7-8 huge signs and now he's plastered them with stuff like "the Ottawa sh**tizen endorses" or "Rainer Bloess endorses". I'm very happy I didn't vote for Bloess in the last local elections, given how much of a useless rightie scumbag he is.

Funny how Bloess and Monette  used to be Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

Angus-Reid says NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf

l o l.

lolwut

epic fail.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18