Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

What the truck.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are so many issues with Teddy's map, I don't know where to start.

Vaudreuil-Soulanges voting Tory?
Saskatoon-Humboldt voting NDP before Rosetown-Biggar?
The Liberals picking up Churchill River?

[Hatman 🍁]

There is a right wing independent running in Humboldt that may take votes away from the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quick question, is electoral reform a make-or-break policy for any NDP involvement in a coalition, as it is for the Liberals in the UK? Would a Liberal/NDP coalition with Bloc support mean likely electoral reform? I assume the Bloc and the Tories would be against a move to PR.

I dont think such things have been discussed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wouldn't it be stupid for them to get rid of FPTP at a time where it would work in their favour if they are to replace the Liberals as the major leftwing party and could ultimately result in a NDP Majority government within a very reasonable amount of time? Yes, I'm being overtly optimistic here.

It would, tactically. The NDP is not really disadvantaged by FPTP except insofar as FPTP hurts smaller parties. Unlike the Lib Dems, the NDP is solidly on the left and thus not nearly as evenly distributed across the country. The Lib Dems could win more votes than Labour and still end up far back in seats, but the NDP would easily pass the Liberals in seats if they won more votes.

I see. So, if these polls play out and the NDP finish second, it's likely that Jack Layton will become Leader of the Opposition, right?

Presumably.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals will not form a coalition. Perhaps a working relationship like we saw in Ontario during the 80s (but in reverse). Either the Libs prop up Harper, or they prop up Layton. Or, if the NDP is in third, they prop up Iggy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_1985

[Hatman 🍁]

Or howabout Ignatieff resigns, and their new leader (Rae or Trudeau) form a coalition.  I would be scared of being in a coalition with Prime Minister Bob Rae (that would benefit the Liberals a lot). I think the best coalition scenario for the Liberals if they were in third would be to be tje junior partner with Rae as Deputy Leader. That would benefit them the most (or hurt them the least).

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone doesn't know his Canadian french history!

St. Boniface is a francophone enclave in Winnipeg, and there are many old French settlements in Manitoba. One must remember, it was settled by the French (and the Metis). There is at least one French community in Alberta, and I think that's what you're seeing. Also, Northern Ontario has a lot of French pockets, and there are sizable French communities in Welland, Penetanguishene and in Essex County in Ontario.  In fact, I met a French guy yesterday on my trip to the Gatineau rally, who grew up in a French neighbourhood of Welland.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more riding polls from Quebec. Still none showing an NDP lead, BUT

Jonquiere-Alma has the NDP within 6 points of the Tories. We have a star candidate there,  but that is a huge increase. I now predict we will win this seat (that makes 8 NDP seats I predict for Quebec). Meanwhile the NDP is 12 points behind the BQ in Chicoutimi, a distant third in Roberval and 27 points back in Richmond-Arthabaska (in a statistical tie with the Tories).

[Hatman 🍁]

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord: BQ 35, Con 29, NDP 23, Lib 11, Green 3
Jonquière-Alma: Con 36, NDP 30, BQ 26, Lib 5, Green 3
Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean: Con 54, BQ 28, NDP 11, Lib 5, Green 2

All by Segma Rechereche

Richmond-Arthabaska: BQ 47, Con 21, NDP 20, Lib 6, Green 6

By 'Cara Telecom'

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Can anyone spot a pattern there? Obviously there's increased NDP support in all, but the scale is totally different and so is all else...

These are areas the NDP wont make many gains (though Mulcair claimed some pickups in the Saguenay, I see only one). I am more interested in ridings in the Montreal area. Let's see some riding polls from the 514 and the 450.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just came back from a candidates debate in Kitchener Waterloo.

The Liberal, NDP, and Green candidates spent the entire time bashing the Conservative incumbent who spent the entire time regurgitating silly talking points about the unnecessary election, the socialist/separatist coalition, the IPod tax, and Strong Leader.

The Liberal definitely seemed the most statesmanlike, touting his record from when he was MP. The NDP candidate did his best but didn't quite thoughtfully answer questions. The Green candidate said things you expect the Green Party to say.

The audience was very hostile to the Conservative and loudly booed him whenever he repeated the CPC talking points.

Anyone else had those experiences?

No, because the Torie candidates never show up to any debates.

In other news, a riding poll shows Elizabeth May winning Saanich-Gulf Islands, 45-38.

[Hatman 🍁]

This poll has the NDP at 27% in Ontario. Very nice.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm assuming that NDP number in the Atlantic provinces is completely meaningless.

Yup, and it'll mean diddly squat in terms of gains/losses. I don't think the NDP will win the South Shore.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm believing it now.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP with a big lead in Hull-Aylmer (swing from 2008):

NDP : 42% (+22)
Lib : 29% (-8)
Bloc : 13% (-9)
CPC : 11% (-4)
Green : 2% (-3)

link

Interesting. I guess that means Pontiac is in play. When I was at the rally on Monday, I was introduce to the mayor of Cantley (a town in Pontiac riding), and seemed a little surprised at the thought of the riding going NDP. He mentioned all the Anglo farmers would never do such a thing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, it's too bad Pierre Ducasse didn't run again. He has played a big role in making the NDP focus on Quebec. I bet he's kicking himself now. I know he's still working hard for us, as I saw him at the rally.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if the NDP will make some strange pickups in Toronto like Lakeshore- seats they've won a long time ago but where they've not had a shot recently. Etobicoke North, and Scarborough SW are some possibilities. Howabout York West?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are Liberals really considering Bob Rae to replace Ignatieff? They've already shot both their feet, what's left...

I hope so. It would continue them down the road to irrelevance.

[Hatman 🍁]

I am going to go out and make a prediction, that the Tories will massively outperform polls on Monday.

Why? The NDP is peaking several days too soon. The narrative at the end of this week will shift from Jack Layton as leader of the opposition to Jack Layton as a potential PM, and despite what some NDP supporters may think, that is a prospect that terrifies 60% of Canadians. When Newspapers start to run with it later this week, you are going to see two things:

60%? um, no. 54% of Canadians either have the NDP as their #1 preference or #2 preference. That means at the most 46% are scared of Layton as being PM, the lowest of all the parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

All good points raised by Al.  The NDP has an excellent track record in Saskatchewan, and has had since the first time they were elected in 1944.

There is already evidence of a red (orange) scare, right now, with markets afraid of a strong NDP. But, that is to be expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm... didn't realize these were old riding polls (except for Hull). Again, I'd like to see some 514/450 polls!

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories just came to my door. Some old guy just gave me a pamphlet and left. Epic fail. Where's the engagement?

Actually, what's the point... the Tories will do very badly in this apartment complex, it's very poor.

On second thought, he probably smelled cat pee and didn't want to bother. lol

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, the Tories finished second in my poll last time:

NDP: 87
Cons: 46
Libs: 33
Greens: 17
Others: 4

Turnout was 44%. W00t. No long lineups!

'06 results
NDP: 104
Liberals: 65
Cons: 42
Greens: 18
Others: 3

Turnout: 45%

'04 results
NDP: 106
Liberals: 48
Tories: 28
Greens: 22
Others: 8

Turnout: 44%

[Hatman 🍁]

Rumours of a riding poll in Trois Rivières showing an NDP lead.

Sources please.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hmm. I don't think anyone saw T-R as a possible pick up. Ok, so what does this mean?