Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

That is plain ridiculous. Let's hopen than Layton isn't the new Dumont.

Let's hope he's not the new Bob Rae. Let's say the NDP wins a majority of seats in Quebec. Most of his caucus will be very inexperienced. I suppose they wont form Government, so it's still ok. However, if everything falls in place, the NDP could become the official opposition, or very close to it, which will bode well for the future .

[Hatman 🍁]

If the NDP allows for some reason a Tory majority I'll be pissed. And if the NDP allows my retard MP to be reelected they can all go DIAF.

Oh please. Orleans is a safe Tory seat these days.

[Hatman 🍁]

Gatineau
NDP: 33%
BQ: 29%
Libs: 24%
Cons: 11%
Greens: 3%

Is that it? That's rather discouraging. We should be at 50% in Gatineau if the provincial polls are to be believed.

[Hatman 🍁]

Presumably even the Outaouais is far more different from Anglo Canada than any part of Scotland or Wales is from England.

Speaking of which, I'm going to try and bike into Hull this weekend to see what things are like there. I suspect based on the Gatineau poll, that the Liberals have a lead there.

[Hatman 🍁]

To be fair, the NDP really maxed out in the 2008 election in Ontario. What seats could they gain without a momentous gain in their direction? Kenora? I doubt is, we were in third. Oshawa? Yeah right... Davenport? Maybe... we're winning the sign war there. Beaches? Not without Marilyn Churley. Parkdale? Kennedy is invincible. York South-Weston? We need better numbers...

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Harper really think his pledge to not govern from second place will gain him any seats? (link - CBC)  I can't seriously see a Liberal/NDP coalition (or an NDP/Liberal coalition if the NDP get a miraculous second place) as neither party would be amenable to that.

What's the point of forcing an election, then?

Obviously Iggy thought things would go differently once the campaign started.  Also, 2012 in general will likely be a better election environment for incumbents than right now is.

Canada's census was taken this year.  By 2012, there will be a reapportionment, which will undoubtedly add seats in the west.  That also needed to be taken into account.

Will be. Not was.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not that this changes the fact that prediction of elections by sign counting is on the dubious side.

Yeah. Though if you know what sort of patterns to look for, it can still be useful; last year I worked out that the Labour vote in North Wales was holding up a lot better than universally assumed from signs and window posters, so the happily low swings in my part of the world didn't cause a surprise.

In Britain it used to be the case that party labels were never printed on ballots (that changed in the 1960s) which meant that candidate signs and posters had an important practical purpose (it's also why there aren't nearly as many as there used to be). Was that the case in Canada as well?

Yes, I believe so. Parties on the ballot is a recent phenomena.

It usually takes them 3 years to re-adjust the boundaries from the date of the start of the Census.

2004, 1994, 1984, 1974, 1964 IIRC are the most recent dates.

Redistribution was in 2003, actually.

[Hatman 🍁]

CROP poll Quebec regions

Montreal: NDP 40%, BQ 28%, Lib 17%, Cons 12%
Quebec City: BQ: 31%, Cons 31%, NDP 28%, Lib 11%
Rest of the province: BQ 35%, NDP: 34%, Cons 19%, Lib 10%

Francos: BQ: 38%, NDP 34%, Cons 15%, Lib 11%
Anglos: NDP 45%, Cons 26%, Lib 20%, BQ 4%

[Hatman 🍁]

Ive been to NDG, and I can tell you it's the kind of trendy area that would vote NDP. It reminds me of the Glebe here in Ottawa, which is an NDP bastion.

[Hatman 🍁]

1150 people at an NDP rally in Duceppe's riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I dont think the NDP will win Duceppe's riding, but they put the rally there for a reason.

[Hatman 🍁]

It is on TV: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Politics/1244504890/ID=1854897866

[Hatman 🍁]

This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is very interesting: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

For as much BS that Canada Votes thing was, I think these maps are quite accurate. Interesting to see how Libertarian parts of Quebec are.

It looks like Quebec supports higher taxes on the rich the most but also privatizing health insurance the most??? Weird.

I'm guessing weirdly-worded questions in French (or just different parts of Quebec).

In unrelated news, Vancouver East seems to be a bastion of ultra-leftism.

Indeed, different parts of Quebec. That Quebec-Beauce area is very Libertarian, but in east Montreal, they are quite nationalist and leftist.

[Hatman 🍁]

The DTES is Canada's poorest neighbourhood, letalone west of Ontario. (I know St. James Town in Toronto is pretty poor, but it does not compare to the DTES).

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm sure you're all aware, but Timmins-James Bay should be rather boring. Turnout may be up, there were some lines in the early voting areas but not that much. There are a few pockets of houses in my neighbourhood that have Charlie Angus signs, then maybe one Liberal, then more NDP. It's kinda funny.

Reminds me of my neighbourhood. Mostly Paul Dewar signs.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Uh, that'll be a no. Who'd have expected that 75-year-old Azoreans don't filled out surveys on cbc.ca?

Well, I don't think they weighted this by demographic, but for the most part I haven't disagreed with these lists. I mean guess what riding was most pro-tar sands? Fort Mac. The riding where they're in.

[Hatman 🍁]

ha! I've walked through the area at night, before, but we stayed clear of Hastings and Main (came one block from though). Pretty crazy place.

[Hatman 🍁]

Layton has a big rally in Gatineau tomorrow.

I am considering going, but it is a bit of a bike ride, and it'll mostly be in French :/

[Hatman 🍁]

Present prediction

[Hatman 🍁]

Tories: 150 (+7)
Libs: 74 (-3)
BQ: 41 (-8)
NDP: 41 (+5)
Ind: 1 (-1)

Liberal losses in the ROC are negated by some random Quebec pickups caused by vote splitting. BQ hit hard. NDP does really well in Quebec, but is unable to translate that into very many seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm surprised you haven't included Ahuntsic, Papineau or Westmount-Ville-Marie in the NDP gains. Possibly also the Laval seats? Is your Nunavut call an actual expectation or simply a no-polls-so-predicting-no-changes prediction? Also surprised by your position on Saulte Ste Marie - I'd think strategic voting would benefit the NDP there, although I can understand you not wanting to jinx the result. I also thought Kenora might be a pickup for you. I think Tory gains in Vancouver South and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (I'm typing from memory on my phone so names could very easily be mis-spelt, I hope you understand which seats I mean) would probably lead to an improved NDP vote in the long-run because the strategic voting is also quite clear along the boundaries of Victoria, Saanich-Gulf Islands and E-JdF - can clearly see the change from Liberal to NDP along the boundaries of Victoria - I am sure there is no drastic change in demographics there.

Papineau and Ahuntsic will be 3 way races, but will have less people voting NDP, due to the fact that they were so close last time. If the NDP makes a foothold in the province though, expect the NDP to pick up those seats in the future (Papineau is very left wing, apparently).  Westmount may be a pick up for the NDP, but I'm holding out for now. As for Laval, it is much too suburban to vote NDP.

As for the Sault and Welland, I see that many polls show the NDP down a bit in Ontario, so they may lose a couple of seats.

Two seats for the NDP in Saskatchewan is a bit optimistic, no?

Perhaps, but we'll see. The NDP is polling well in the prairies.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've been wondering about an NDP pickup in Pontiac also. The geography is a bit misleading; the population is substantially in the greater Ottawa region, and the splits there have to be just right for Cannon's huge margins in the rural Anglo areas across the river from Renfrew county to carry him over, which he did with only 33% last time.

What are people's opinions of the chances of IND>CON in Simcoe-Grey? (For the internationals: the Conservatives have a nomination fracas.)

I have a hard enough time convincing myself that Hull-Aylmer will go NDP, letalone the Pontiac. I told my work friend he should vote NDP, as he'll be voting in the Pontiac (he has voted NDP in the past, but was considering voting Bloc)

As for Simcoe-Grey, I can't really see Helena winning it...

[Hatman 🍁]

Two new riding polls from Quebec.

In Brome-Missisquoi, the former NDP candidate (2008) is leading for the Bloc 32-26% over the NDP and the Liberals who are tied for second. The NDP has no business doing that well in what was a close race between the Liberals and Bloc in 2008...  I really hope the BQ loses it to the NDP, that'll show her for switching parties! The other poll was from Chambly-Borduas, a riding that the NDP won a long time ago (first ever). The BQ leads there 37-24.

[Hatman 🍁]

Depends on the seat count of the opposition parties.

With the poll %s from B-M, and the stats showing that every night the poll was being conducted, the NDP#'s increased, I will call it for the NDP (certainly not the Libs), while I will call nearby Drummond for the NDP as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Environics has the NDP at 41% in Quebec, but it has shown strong numbers for the NDP in the past. They have us at 25% nation wide, ahead of the liberals.