Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

It's happened in some provinces (SK and Manitoba), but it's unlikely to happen nationwide. Just wait until Justin Trudeau is leader. Then the Liberals will get a boost in the polls and the NDP will be in the low teens for a while. Well, maybe not. The NDP will likely choose Thomas Mulcair as their next leader, and that would be very interesting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, my mistake...but what about the substantive question...can the more social-democratic party push the more centrist liberal party into a permanent rump position and be the natural opposition to the Tories...ala the UK?  Why or why not?  Likely or unlikely?

Fairly unlikely, although it would be nice. I think a Green-NDP-BQ merger is more likely in the distant future.

So like a when pigs fly type deal?

I wouldn't go that far.  I mean, the NDP formed the government of Ontario from 1990 to 1995. I mean, who saw that coming? The federal party could do the same, or maybe even opposition, but things would fall back into order after a few cycles, depending on a number of external factors.

One musn't forget that the CCF/NDP has led the federal polls twice in its history. Once in 1987 and once in 1943 I believe.

I just mean, it seems like a NDP-BQ-Green merger is one of the signs of the apocalypse type deals.  So the liberals being the 3rd party rump must be virtually impossible...it would appear.

It's happened in some provinces (SK and Manitoba), but it's unlikely to happen nationwide. Just wait until Justin Trudeau is leader. Then the Liberals will get a boost in the polls and the NDP will be in the low teens for a while. Well, maybe not. The NDP will likely choose Thomas Mulcair as their next leader, and that would be very interesting.

A shame, from what little I've seen...I actually like Layton the most of the four.

With his ailing health et al, I don't see him continuing on. Plus, the party is likely to lose some seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Before Labour came on the scene in Britain, as there a large social democratic base? Didn't it build over the years? That would have to happen in Canada too.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you will see the NDP's base in the future being less "working class" and more liberal progressives of all stripes, but mostly in the middle class.

[Hatman 🍁]

French debate with English voice over: http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/13/cv-election-french-language-debate.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Layton is in PEI today for some reason.

PEI, the worst place for the NDP. Only once it is history has it even elected an NDP MLA. Speaking of that MLA, I believe his wife is running.

Scratch that, it's the wife of a former leader, but it was a different guy who was the MLA (Herb Dickieson).

[Hatman 🍁]

If somehow the dream becomes a reality, then Canada would only have to adopt cricket as a major sport and they might fit in with the rest of the club

Fortunately Canada's bat-and-ball sport of choice is the superior one.

Ha. At this point, I wouldn't be so sure... Baseball is getting less and less popular, while cricket is becoming more and more popular. Unfortunately, they didn't show any World Cup games on any main channel, unless you got a special cable package.
Interesting note, in the 1800s, cricket was the most popular sport in Canada, but it was overtaken by ice hockey and baseball. While I enjoy the odd baseball game, I would love to see cricket on TV.

[Hatman 🍁]

I never thought I'd say this, but I'm loving those Nanos numbers. Maybe there'll be some NDP gains

[Hatman 🍁]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

Harris didn't have the BQ to contend with.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the BQ evaporate and to have all those BQ voters vote NDP?  Suddenly the NDP would be looking at over 80 seats, and official opposition status

[Hatman 🍁]

It will need a NDP collapse to stop minority government. (A BQ collaspe probably wouldn't, since the 2nd choice of most BQ voters is NDP).

Not if the Harper can (finally) do something similar to Harris...

Harris didn't have the BQ to contend with.

Wouldn't it be interesting to see the BQ evaporate and to have all those BQ voters vote NDP?  Suddenly the NDP would be looking at over 80 seats, and official opposition status

It began, I would say.
BQ is a party which need a theme to run on.
1993, Meech.
1997 and 2000, it declined.
2004 and 2006, Adscam
2008, culture cuts
2011, it seems to decline.

And I suppose Duceppe will step down someday, which will hurt BQ much, I suppose. No other MP than him is known.

But, Earl, don't get too optimistic, NDP won't catch all BQ votes.

I know, but it's a nice thought!

[Hatman 🍁]

Based on a uniform swing, the Tories would need about 41% to get a majority.

[Hatman 🍁]

been a while since I've seen the BQ in purple.

[Hatman 🍁]

I noticed The Citizen had a "precinct" map of Glengarry-Prescott-Russell in today's paper. Good to see that

[Hatman 🍁]

Awesome. Thanks.

Those maps certainly show the strategic voting.

For sure. I especially noticed it in Vancouver (look at how people were free to choose who they wanted in Vancouver Centre)

[Hatman 🍁]

25%

[Hatman 🍁]

Meanwhile, Nanos has us down at 17%. So, I don't know what to believe.

[Hatman 🍁]

the NDP is 2nd place in Quebec in every recent poll.

EKOS now has the NDP at 20%, and it hasn't been a "pro-NDP" pollster. Abacus also had us at 20%, Forum Research and Leger both have us over 20%, and while it's not on Wikipedia, according to threehundredeight, Environics has us at 20% too, but maybe they got it confused with EKOS.

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be really weird if the NDP got a better result in Quebec than Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, the NDP making 2nd place in Quebec made the abbreviated 5 minute "the National" broadcast on CBC between playoff hockey games. Good news!

[Hatman 🍁]

Who is Abacus?
A new pollster?
A pollster who changed his name?

They've been around for a while, with the same name, polling both the US and Canada. Historically though they've mostly done policy/issue polling for interested groups rather than election polls.

Actually, they are brand new. I sort of know their CEO, David Colletto. He's in his late 20s. I met him at a party once for an NDP candidate he was friends with, and he bragged that he was working for Nanos research and helped them get such a good result for the 2006 election. I was surprised to see that he had started his own company. His numbers have appeared in the Sun a lot. He claims to have a huge online research panel of like 100,000 people, but I have no idea how it got that big, considering I hadn't heard of them until recently, and the EKOS panel isn't even that big and we've been recruiting for years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Natives are pretty hard to poll. I hate when we get projects to call aboriginals, as they culturally not programmed to do surveys. (I hope that didn't sound racist :S )

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP gain in Quebec will give the NDP decent national numbers, but will perhaps mean a net loss in seats if it's not made up in the rest of the country. The NDP polling in the 20s in Quebec may only mean 2 or 3 seats, or maybe just one seat if this Boivin scandal I heard about affects her (which I doubt) in Gatineau.  Take a look at the numbers, most seats in Quebec had the NDP at 10-15% in 2008, so the support is pretty spread out... which sucks.

...then again if the NDP were to get around 30% of the vote in Quebec (lol), it would win a sh*t load of seats. And that's only a 5-10% swing from current polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Beat me to it! I was just watching this: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Canada_Votes_2011/1857462143/ID=1891645946


I am BEAMING!!!!

[Hatman 🍁]

It is official. Hell has frozen over.