MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" (user search)
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  MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State" (search mode)
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Author Topic: MI: Public Policy Polling: "Not a Swing State"  (Read 1474 times)
ajb
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Posts: 869
United States


« on: November 01, 2012, 12:22:45 AM »

I am to the point where I think PPP has a fairly large Democratic house effect.

Not really, PPP's results continue to be line with those of all other quality pollsters.

MO, NC argue differently. 
These PPP polls are sauced. They have to be to make the client happy.

For the most part, they are at the outer range of the Obama turnout model. I know I am going to get flack from the PPP-loving peanut gallery, however, I challenge them to point me to the portion of poll methodology where PPP in this instance hasn't adjusted for Party ID.
Your syntax is a little unclear here, but I'm guessing that you're suggesting that the Party ID numbers here are too D-friendly, and could only be the result of a deliberate weighting.
One of the questions I'd have  here, is why a partisan poll would want to inflate numbers just days before an election. Wouldn't that have the effect of discouraging turnout? It seems to me that a partisan Democratic poll of Michigan right now, would actually say that Obama was ahead by 3 -- enough to make it seem like he can still win, but not so much as to breed complacency.
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