IA-PPP: Rumors of Obama's decline there false (user search)
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  IA-PPP: Rumors of Obama's decline there false (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Rumors of Obama's decline there false  (Read 2636 times)
ajb
Jr. Member
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Posts: 869
United States


« on: May 08, 2012, 12:11:28 PM »

Iowa's been weirdly under-polled since the primary, surprising when the last poll (that DMR poll from mid-February) had it as a state which was switching sides from 2008. You'd think that would have generated more interest than it has...
Glad to see more data, and also glad that data is more favorable to Obama!
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ajb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 869
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2012, 01:18:34 PM »

Iowa has much industry -- lots of farm equipment and meat processing.  Dairying is much like factory work, so expect dairy workers to think much like blue-collar workers in the automotive industry.  In contrast to states to its west it has little ranching activity. Demographics of Iowa are more like those of Minnesota or Wisconsin than like those of South Dakota, Nebraska, or Kansas.

To defeat President Obama in Iowa the Republican nominee will absolutely have to keep pounding him with incessant ads and frequent appearances that will cost the republican nominee dearly of opportunities better exploited elsewhere (like Ohio).
IA has tracked WI in particular very closely over the past couple of decades at least. It doesn't have a big racially-diverse city like Milwaukee, but it also doesn't have big conservative suburban counties like Waukesha either, so it's kind of a wash. It's really the suburbs that make WI (and to a lesser extent, MN), competitive for the Republicans; the rural areas in both states aren't as Republican as one might think from other nearby states.
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