2012 Intrade rankings

[ajb]

Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus

[ajb]

Even on the market on who wins the presidency, we're talking somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 000 swinging the market yesterday. Which would be a staggering amount of money for me to bet, but is obviously not that much in the grand scheme of things. And, as Nate Silver points out, all the other betting markets have Obama significantly higher (and more stable) than Intrade did yesterday, which should be an opportunity for arbitraging if the markets are at all liquid.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/24/oct-23-the-virtues-and-vices-of-election-prediction-markets/?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-thecaucus

There was also the belief that Romney was undervalued on Intrade.  He was around 37% prior to the third debate.  

If so, he remains significantly more undervalued on all the other betting markets out there, many of which are larger and more sophisticated than Intrade. Why, then, has Romney's price not risen so much on those other markets? If the markets are operating efficiently, then Romney's price should be basically the same on each market.