🇩🇪 Germany: ⬛️ CDU/CSU chancellor candidate for 2021

[Yeahsayyeah]

Rather:
Armin Laschet (CDU) and Markus Söder (CSU) have both declared their willingness to become the next CxU chancellor candidate.

So how are they going to decide who gets it? Who'll make the decision?

BUMP

Well, in 2002, CSU's Edmund Stoiber and CDU's Angela Merkel ate breakfest together in Wolfratshausen, and whatever happened there, Angela Merkel gave in and Stoiber became chancellor candidate of the Union parties. I don't know, what the procedure was in 1980, but it is said that the CDU campaigned quite reluctantly for Franz Joseph Strauss, and their result north of the white sausage equator was quite bad.

aka There is no formal procedure to solve this.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Also, Söder's numbers are inflated by the perception of being a "dedicated fighter against corona" by proposing "hard measures" all the time and then using every loophole possible while the actual management by the Bavarian state government is quite meh.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Rofl. It's a comedy show. And Laschet is getting the fair share of the puns.

[Yeahsayyeah]

There are state-level parties in all the German states, why does the Bavarian one get special treatment?

Because it really is an organisational independent party allied with the CDU. After 1945 the allied authorites, especially the US  allowed only for state parties, partially they had even different names. When the CDU state parties formed a federal party (after the first Bundestag election), the Bavarians stayed outside. One can blame Bavarian exceptionalism for that (and Bavaria is big enough, that they will normally pass the five percent threshold, especially in the pre-1990 federal republic).

There were even several attempts to exand the CSU beyond Bavaria: In the Saarland in the fifties because of the intra-Saar differences about the relationship with France and Germany), several draft-movements from outside Bavaria to build up a nationwide "Fourth Party" right of the CDU modeled after or even incorporating the CSU, in East Germany since 1990 where the CSU supported the DSU and even wanted to expand at least to Saxony.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Which would not be necessary at all. The CSU only needs to win three direct mandates to circumvent the threshold and enter parliament by merit of the Grundmandatsklausel.

Never mind, I wanted to keep it simple. ;-) It would have mattered in European elections before 2014.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Thank you CDU Bundesvorstand, very cool!

https://twitter.com/wahlen_de/status/1384546624811278336?s=21

Baerbockmentum!

Well, it is Forsa which is known as the pollster with the most volatile results (and is sometimes suspected to cook the books a bit to forge or strengthen political narratives. And it's only a snapshot. We will see.