Which President reelection looked the most Bleak after their first midterm

[MIKESOWELL]

  I concur with the majority here. Clinton looked toast in November 1994. People must recall that Whitewater was still relevant then. Rush Limbaugh had a daily countdown of the number of days left in the Clinton administration. This was the first time that the Republicans had significant control of the House and Senate in 42 years. This was the first election where the Republicans won a majority of the popular vote (midterm) in 48 years. Clinton was polling 39 percent approval by this date. He was being deemed a failure by many, including some in his own party. The comeback in 1996 was indeed remarkable and added to his mystique.

  Also, Perot did not help Clinton. Voter malaise and Perot's presence on the national ticket actually hurt Clinton. Instead of polling 49.2 percent nationally in 1996, he may have polled something like 54 to 55 percent without these factors.

[MIKESOWELL]

Nope. Most of Perot's voters were white and the 2000 exit polls showed that most of them would have voted for Dole in a two-way race.

  I don't buy that argument that Perot cost Bush the election in 1992, nor that Perot hurt Dole in 1996. Even if the overwhelming majority of Perot's votes were from whites, polls usually showed that at best Bush and Dole would have received a plurality to a small majority of Perot's votes, not a huge majority. Even if Dole won 60 percent of Perot's total vote, Clinton's popular majority would still have soared to 53 percent. That still keeps the anemic vote total in place. That is why I stated that if these factors were not in place, 54 to 55 percent of the vote may have been achievable.