De Blasio vs. Bush

[Cory]

Something like this:

[Cory]

You guys are being completely unrealistic about this. With polarization as high as it is today, it's hard to see a Democrat getting below ~230 EVs.

I see a 2004-esque victory for Bush. Bush wins narrowly in Nevada. De Blasio wins narrowly in Iowa and Wisconsin, and somewhat narrowly in New Mexico.

I think you are overrating the inflexibility of the electorate when faced with a "Moderate" candidate from on party vs an "Extremist" from another.

We can't sit here and make Democratic landslide maps against Cruz or Palin and then turn around and say De-Blasio or Sanders gets gets a close election. We can't have it both ways.

[Cory]

there's every indication that the Dem floor is high and getting higher.  Dems have outperformed the GOP since 1988.  5/6 PV wins; only one GOP majority (50.7% at that).

This is true, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.