MUH TARIFFS

[Cory]

And even in an alternate universe where the South does win its independence back in the 1860s, there's no reason to believe that it wouldn't have eventually industrialized and modernized in a way that would make into a world player.

It's not that easy. Keep in mind that the USA has a huge industrial head start and the CSA would have to maintain a large military along the CSA/USA border constantly. There is actually every reason to believe it would not modernize and become a world player.

A.) It's not as easy as "just modernizing". The USA head start and greater population/resources/everything gives them an institutional advantage that the CSA will never overcome. Also keep in mind the social structure of the South isn't really "built" (if you will) for large-scale industrialization.

B.) From day one the USA will have a vastly superior navy and the CSA will never have the industrial base to modernize and build a large, blue water navy capable of defeating the USN, never mind projecting power globally.

C.) The CSA will consist of the original Confederate states, and maybe OK, NM, and AZ. That's it. Everything else goes to the USA. Why? Because literally the only way the South wins is if the Union throws in the towel for domestic political reasons. The CSA will be in no position to make any sort of demands whatsoever other then "independence".

D.) As a result of factors gone over in "C", the USA industrial base, even if the South somehow "modernizes" will still be probably dozens and dozens of times stronger then the CSA.

European powers would have had a vested interest in seeing the CSA succeed, as it means a weaker United States, and would have supported it financially and militarily until it was able to stand on its on.

Even if France and Britain give aid to the CSA (which I doubt to begin with, frankly) the other factors still outweigh it. It's not like either of them is going to go as far as guaranteeing their independence or anything. They are more worried about the rise of Prussia in Europe to risk a war with the USA which would just result in Britain losing Canada totally and the destruction of the CSA.

Also, with a notably less Anglo population due to the South having seceded, the United States probably doesn't come to the Allies aid during WWI and the CSA takes on the role as Western Europe's premier American ally.     

I'm sorry, but that's just utterly, laughably absurd.

[Cory]

The South would have much ethnic stronger ties to Great Britain than the U.S., that's for sure, and that could translate into some, well, interesting things.

I don't know if this would amount to anything. Keep in mind there would be domestic political consequences for Britain being allied with the only remaining "Western" power still using legal chattel slavery.

And everything you said could just as easily be applied to the U.S. after the Revolutionary War:  no Navy, small army, uncentralized economy and government.

The situations are massively different and in this discussion we have the gift of hindsight. The 1790's are very different from the 1860's/70's.

And its not like the U.S. had to maintain a huge military on the Canadian border from the git-go because they feared the UK re-invading.  In fact, if we imagine the POD being a Confederate victory at Sharpsburg (Antietam) then its quite imaginable that the South could win quite decisively.

The situation is again massively different. The USA and CSA are going to be hostile to each other to say the least and the mutual border will probably be highly militarized. Keep in mind in the pre-industrial times you mention (US not having to keep an army bordering Canada) armies were much smaller and required less constant industry on as big a scale as the "modern" armies of the 1860's and beyond.

Even with a victory at Antietam the CSA still isn't in a position to make demands of the Union other then "leave us alone". The superior economy of the Union just makes them impossible to really defeat from the CSA point of view. The longer the war goes on the more immense the Union superiority will become. The Souths only chance is a rapid, decisive victory early in the war and then settling for terms.