At this point, can anyone else win?

[jravnsbo]

A dean loss to Gephardt in IA, would be easiest scenario.  It would galvanize Gephardt's campaign and be a major surprise as Dean is now EXPECTED to win.  

I'm 20 years old and this is really the first primary that I've paid close attention to.  The last, in 2000, wasn't that exciting since everybody with half a brain already knew which candidate would win their respective primaries long before the first vote was cast.

It's a bit more interesting this time around, for me anyway, because there's now 9 candidates fighting for the nomination.  I know if the election were held today, all indications are that Dean would win.

My question is, at this stage in the primary race can another candidate actually begin to overcome Dean in the polls and beat him in the election - even with Iowa and N.H. less than a month away?  I guess all things are possible in politics (after all, Bill Clinton was elected--twice), but is there a situation any of you see where an anti-Dean candidate could win the nomination?  Any way that Dean could drop so low in the polls that quickly to cost him the nomination?

[jravnsbo]

Openly laughing , good one.

I was thinking the other day of a comment Dean made ( Yes I know there are many!) but he talked about how he narrowly won his last election in Vermont because of signing the civil unions bill.  Yeah so I guess with a close win by a liberal ina  lieral state he decided to run nationally harder to the left, yeah that makes sense.

.....in France.

[jravnsbo]

Sounds about right.  Dean wins the first 2 he will look inevitable and get a boost from the wins and free media.

ND is favoring Gephardt and is expected to win it if (big IF) he survives Iowa.

Clinton, Bush, and Dukakis all lost New Hampshire and won the nominations.

They weren't running in ridiculously front-loaded primaries, though.  If Dean wins NH and Iowa, I just don't see that there is any time to stop Dean.  The "Big Mo" will propel him too far too fast for anyone to catch him.

Clark could win on Feb 2 and have a chance, but I don't see it happening.

Why don't you see it hapening MiamiU?

In the polls that I've seen, Dean is leading most of the Feb. 3 states.  These include Arizona, Delaware, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.  Gephardt leads in his home state of Missouri.  I haven't seen a poll for North Dakota.  Furthermore, the states that closely follow the Feb. 3 primaries (those on the 7th, 8th, and 10th) all seem to be going to Dean, according to the polls anyway.

Clark just doesn't have a breakthrough state, the way I see it.  He's not really *leading* anywhere.  In some states, like South Carolina, he's running just behind Dean or neck and neck with Dean...but after Dean gets Iowa, N.H., etc, that'll push him higher in S.C., leaving Clark and others trailing behind.

But then again, this is the first primary election I've really watched closely.  I could be way off.

[jravnsbo]

That is the huge debate Dem face.  If they drop dean will he break away?  see Dean as indpendant thread.

Dems should have dropped out and gotten behind a centrist candidate long before this.  Now I think even if some drop out it will be after Dean wins a lot  of victories and it would be forced into the convention for a decision.

This campaign is really just in its infancy.  Sure, Dean leads in the polls with about 25% of likely Democrats, but what happens when some of the other candidates drop?

A lot of folks feel that it was Dean who cranked up the negative rhetoric by attacking Leiberman, Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards for voting in favor of the war resolution.  It will be hard for supporters of those candidates to go over to Dean.  More likely they will go to which ever one of them which is left OR to Clark.