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RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
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« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2018, 06:11:27 AM » |
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The SPD ministers are apparently:
Foreign: Heiko Maas Finances: Olaf Scholz Environment: Svenja Schulze Justice: Matthias Miersch Labour: Katharina Barley Family: Franziska Giffey
Take with a grain of salt though, my source is not 100% certain.
Hubertus Heil is to become Labor Minister.
And Barley Justice. That makes more sense imo. Heil is vital for Stephan Weil's political support in Lower Saxony which Miersch isn't. And Heil needed Sigmar out of the way because both are from the SPD district of Brunswick. Still can't understand why Maas became foreign minister though.
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RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
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« Reply #38 on: August 05, 2018, 10:41:46 AM » |
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The consulting group pollytix did a poll for the SPD Bremen: CDU: 24% SPD: 28% Greens: 14% FDP: 10% Linke: 14% AfD: 8% Others: 2% http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bremen.htmI know that they did some good work in Lower Saxony but I'm not all that impressed with their work on the federal level so I would take this poll with a significant grain of salt.
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RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
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« Reply #43 on: October 14, 2018, 09:12:13 AM » |
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Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.
Any word on SPD’s performance? [/quote] It's apparently bad. But I expected that
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RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
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« Reply #45 on: October 14, 2018, 09:32:13 AM » |
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@The Saint: Is this a leaked Exit Poll?
My educated guess:
CSU (supposedly conservative): 35 % SPD (socialdemocratic): 9 % Greens (socialist-ecologic): 16 % Freie Waehler (free conservative): 12 % AdF (national conservative/Alt-R): 11 % Bavarian Party (Secessionist): 6 %
Under the 5-%-threshold: FDP (econmic conservative, social liberal): 4.5 % The Left (socialist): 4.0 % Other: 2.5 %
The Bavarian Party will not be over the 5% treshold.
Do you really think this? A) None of the pollsters expicitly ask for them B) According to pollsters, "Other" parties obtain 5-6 %Points C) These numbers of the "others" factored(according to the experience" to the real result are about 8 % D) For a proud bavarian patriot, the CSU disqualified themselves completely despite Mr Seehofers attempts of appeasing them E) There is no real alternative as the so-called pseudo "Alternative for Germany" does not Appeal to bavarian patriots, neither the "Freie Waehler" who are already displayed they are anyting else but a CSU Version 2.5
A) I'm not sure about the methodology so I can't answer that B) But that's also other parties C) I'm not sure where you get that from D) That might be true E) That also might be true But nevertheless: I have no indication that the Bayernpartei will be over the threshold. But if you're right I will always read what you have to write about Bavarian politics
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RedPrometheus
Jr. Member
Posts: 470
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« Reply #46 on: October 14, 2018, 09:34:35 AM » |
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The polling institutes also do an exit-poll prognosis at 2 pm.
That's right which does not contradict post. This preliminary prognosis is made of the data collected at 12 pm. Yet these numbers usually are skewed towards the CSU as These are the voters which have just left the catholic mass with a priest not shy of eluding what chaos(the magical word) will come above all those sinners who even think of voting for another Party then the CSU :-)
That's true of course but I hope that the pollsters accord for that factor But what I see so far doesn't really show that.
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