On current polling VVD will be the largest party again, followed by BBB, PvdA/Groenlinks combination, PVV and the others.
VVD and CDA could keep working together, and they could fairly easily add BBB, SGP, and JA21. In recent polls, those five parties would have between 63 and 68 seats.
Is not likely to happen and it will only lead to a very unstable coalition. Even worse than the current one.
CDA is falling apart and is eaten alive by BBB as we speak.
BBB is not a strong party. Their support is a wide but narrow. And they donīt have the people to create a stable parliamentary party.
SGP is the fundamentalist Christian party. Their core values are not popular with about 90% of the public (shops closing on sundays, no abortion, no gay marriage).
JA21 might be the only stable partner of the four parties (not counting the VVD). But there are also a lot of unknows about them.
And even with all of them there is no majority within parliament. So they need to find a sixth party to fill the gap.
Look, about 70 to 75% of the voters are done with Rutte. He is not popular, is seen as a liar and untrustworthy and judged as someone who does not seem to care too much about the state of the nation. His supporters (the VVD voters) donīt mind all of that because they are not suffering from the effects of his policies.
The biggest problem is: there is no alternative. There is no one within the poltical landscape who looks like he or she can really challenge Rutte for the crown. Not Van der Plas nor Wilders or Kuiken or anybody else.
So Rutte wins by default. Not because of he is strong (the VVD is not polling great either) because of the others are weaker.