Biden the first establishment Democrat to win since 1932. (user search)
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  Biden the first establishment Democrat to win since 1932. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Biden the first establishment Democrat to win since 1932.  (Read 1244 times)
Earthling
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« on: November 08, 2020, 05:33:14 AM »
« edited: November 08, 2020, 05:41:15 AM by Earthling »

It seems to me that Joe Biden is the first establishment to win the Presidency in almost 90 years for the Democrats.

Since FDR won in 1932, being the establishment candidate back then, all Democrats that won were outsiders when they ran for the first time; JFK in 1960, Carter in 1976, Bill Clinton in 1992 and Obama in 2008. Only Johnson was a establishment figure when he ran in 1964, but he became President after the JFK assassination in 63. Even Truman in 1948 was still more or less an outsider.

During all these years, the Democratic Party lost when the establishment nominated one of their own: Humphrey in 1968, Mondale in 1984, Gore in 2000, Kerry in 2004 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Joe Biden in 2020 seems to be the exception now. He is an elite figure within the party and still won.
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Earthling
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Posts: 1,133
Netherlands


« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2020, 05:46:49 AM »

There is also the age-issue.

The elected Presidents by the Democrats used to be on the young side, FDR at 51, JFK at 43, Carter at 52, Clinton at 46 and Obama at 47. Only Truman (60) and Johnson (55) stand out but they became President in a different.

With Republicans, they tend to be older: Eisenhower (62), Nixon (56), Ford (61, non-election), Reagan (69), Bush, sr. (64), Bush, Jr (54) and Trump (70).
Only Nixon and Bush, Jr. were younger than 60. The others much older.

And now comes Joe Biden, at age 78, as a Democrat. Remarkable.
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Earthling
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Posts: 1,133
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2020, 05:52:57 AM »

That's because Donald Trump was his opponent, making Biden a "return to normalcy" candidate rather than a "change" candidate.

Was there ever an election and an election campaign in U.S. history before that was so much about defeating a specific incumbent individual?

True. The fact that Joe Biden is such a well known political figure probably helped him a lot. The Trump campaign had difficult task of painting him as a leftwing extremist. For the most part they were not successful.
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Earthling
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Posts: 1,133
Netherlands


« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2020, 06:02:25 AM »

Clinton and Obama both spoke at the DNC 4 years before.

True, but that did not make them establishment candidates. In 1992 all eyes were on Cuomo (who did not run off course) and in 2008 on Hillary (who lost to Obama).

By 'outsider' I did not say that the nominee was an nobody within the party. Clinton and Carter were Governors, Kennedy and Obama Senators. But they were not the biggest name candidates when they ran.

With my remark I was saying that when the Democats nominate the candidate preferred by the establishment they lose, when to go for the outsider they usually win (not always offcourse). Kennedy, Clinton and Obama were not the establishments choice.
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Earthling
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Posts: 1,133
Netherlands


« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2020, 01:05:56 PM »

There is still hope for the dying 1932 comparison it seems...


I am not comparing Biden to FDR. And don't think 2020 is similar to 1932.
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Earthling
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Posts: 1,133
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2020, 01:54:38 PM »

Most of the people we now know to have been supporting Obama were not public supporters of Obama in 2008 - nobody wanted to get on the Clintons' wrong side. Hillary also had superdelegate support and recall that she hinted at winning the nomination on the convention floor with heavy superdelegate support.

Voters definitely saw Obama as an outsider. Even his theme was "change is here".


This.

Obama did have support from the Party elites. That doesn't make him the establishment candidate in 2008. That year, Hillary Clinton was.
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