SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
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« on: January 20, 2020, 09:41:32 AM » |
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It's not a "junk" poll. It's a small poll (600 voters = 4% margin of error). Have any other polls shown Bloomberg doing better against Trump than Biden or Sanders? (By the way, there's a secret formula for margin of error: for a sample of n voters, it's 1 divided by the square root of n).
Macomb going for Bloomberg by 10 is a bit surprising, though. Even with an oversample of, say, 120 Macomb voters, there's still a 9% margin of error (so the true Macomb margin could be 50-42 Trump) plus the fact that Trump polls low, especially in Macomb and other places with lots of white Catholics and Evangelicals. (The reason being such voters are aware enough to know that many interpret white support for Trump as racist, among other things, and won't tell a stranger they plan to vote for Trump).
I still predict either Biden or Sanders narrowly wins MI-- though I won't be shocked if Trump wins MI.
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