Racial polarization: What will happen in future elections?

[SingingAnalyst]

I am concerned about it, too.

In some ways, the dystopic future you envision is already a reality. The Black/White divide has been a chasm since 1964 (and in some areas, before that) and shows no sign of shrinking. The religious divide is growing, with non-Christian religious adherents and those with no religion, as well as very liberal Christians (and Black Christians) on one side and white, conservative Christians (whether Catholic, Protestant, or other) on the other. The 2016 Presidential election presented us with perhaps the greatest divide we have seen in this regard.

It does not help that each "side" listens to their own media and regards the other "side" 's media as "fake news".

The mere fact that you wrote this tells me that you love your country and its people, and I'm going to guess that your goodwill extends to those outside the US as well. I would like to think the same is true of me. Personally, I seek to study, from the point of view of a liberal interpretation of my own tradition (Roman Catholicism) ways to bridge the divide, even in small ways.

I'm sure you are familiar with the starfish story. Two people are walking along a beach that is littered with starfish at low tide. One starts throwing starfish back into the water. The other asks "What are you doing? You can't possibly make a difference" to which the first one says "I'm making a difference for the starfish I throw back in".

I think President Bush denouncing Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) in 2002 after he lamented Strom Thurmond's 1948 loss, was a positive step.

I think the voters of SC electing Tim Scott, a Black Republican, as Senator, was a positive step.

I think more people will have to start seeing acts that bridge racial and religious divides as "positive steps" even when they don't line up with their particular political positions.

"Hope springs eternal." -Alexander Pope

[SingingAnalyst]

I am concerned about it, too.

In some ways, the dystopic future you envision is already a reality. The Black/White divide has been a chasm since 1964 (and in some areas, before that) and shows no sign of shrinking. The religious divide is growing, with non-Christian religious adherents and those with no religion, as well as very liberal Christians (and Black Christians) on one side and white, conservative Christians (whether Catholic, Protestant, or other) on the other. The 2016 Presidential election presented us with perhaps the greatest divide we have seen in this regard.

It does not help that each "side" listens to their own media and regards the other "side" 's media as "fake news".

The mere fact that you wrote this tells me that you love your country and its people, and I'm going to guess that your goodwill extends to those outside the US as well. I would like to think the same is true of me. Personally, I seek to study, from the point of view of a liberal interpretation of my own tradition (Roman Catholicism) ways to bridge the divide, even in small ways.

I'm sure you are familiar with the starfish story. Two people are walking along a beach that is littered with starfish at low tide. One starts throwing starfish back into the water. The other asks "What are you doing? You can't possibly make a difference" to which the first one says "I'm making a difference for the starfish I throw back in".

I think President Bush denouncing Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) in 2002 after he lamented Strom Thurmond's 1948 loss, was a positive step.

I think the voters of SC electing Tim Scott, a Black Republican, as Senator, was a positive step.

I think more people will have to start seeing acts that bridge racial and religious divides as "positive steps" even when they don't line up with their particular political positions.

"Hope springs eternal." -Alexander Pope

I actually haven't heard about the starfish story before. Thank you for sharing it. I think it serves as a good illumination of what is happening, or what is going to happen. I agree with you about what happened with Trent Lott, and especially, about the election of Tim Scott. I am concerned about the way this country is headed, and my concern also derives from what I have seen on this website, and on others. It is amazing how much the posters here, who are Democrats or Republicans, are at odds over almost every issue, thinking in completely different ways.

What do you think the country's electoral map would look like if the polarization trends I indicated above came true?

Compared to the 2016 map, the GOP could pick up ME, MN, and NH, (maybe even OR in a fantastic GOP year) even as they lost MI, PA, and WI, and eventually GA and NC (and, eventually, maybe even MS). So, not much change. The Dems have finished in the 30s or 40s, more or less, among white non-Hispanic/Latino voters, since 1964. Could it dip below 30%? Possibly, but the white electorate is sharply divided as well. Members of the LGBT community, the nonreligious, liberal Christians, and adherents of non-Christian religions will continue to vote Dem; I don't see blatant racial appeals working with many white members of these groups.

You are right about our thinking being sharply aligned (and it's not just Atlas posters, believe me). I'm sure there's a high correlation between being pro-choice on abortion and being anti-choice on firearms, and vice versa, even though these issues (and many, many other issues that could be "paired off") have little or nothing to do with each other. Questions such as "Don't you think people who need a firearm should able to purchase one legally, rather than resort to dangerous, back-alley purchases?" or "Don't you think it's time to get big government off the backs of those who wish to be in a polyamorous relationship?" work well as thought experiments, but are unlikely to change many minds; in fact they are likely simply to make people angry, unfortunately.

[SingingAnalyst]

What do you think such polarization would do to health, safety, security and ethics?

It may be an issue for FEMA. Could thousands of people be housed together (as they were in the Louisiana Superdome after Hurricane Katrina) safely, if they were so sharply divided by race and other factors? Officials would probably have to regulate personal conversations. At one bar in Waterford, MI, during and for several months after the 2016 election a sign said "House rules: no politics".