Trump and Hillary were both weak candidates (user search)
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  Trump and Hillary were both weak candidates (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump and Hillary were both weak candidates  (Read 2321 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: February 11, 2018, 01:18:02 PM »

True. A jaw-dropping 29% (per CNN) thought neither candidate was honest or trustworthy. Only 2% thought both were. The breakdowns on other factors (personally approve, has the right temperament, is qualified) were similarly bleak.

That most of these "I hate you both" voters picked Trump is something that I'm sure will be discussed at length, and already has. (What's weird, though, is that of the few "I like you both" voters, most picked Trump, too!)

Has there even been an election where both major candidates were viewed so negatively? The closest I can think of is 1976 and 1988. I think in 1976 the candidates were viewed as lackluster, rather than evil, and the level of antipathy to Bush and Dukakis in 1988 was not nearly as intense as that toward Clinton and Trump.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2018, 03:54:44 PM »

Beginning in 1992, voters were asked (I think by CNN) their feelings about a (fill in the blank with a candidate) Presidency: excited, optimistic, concerned, or scared. In 1992, only 42% were "excited" or "optimistic" at the thought of Bill Clinton becoming President, while 54% were "concerned" or "scared". This was probably the lowest such rating for any election winner until....

(for example, in 2000, Gore's excited-optimistic-concerned-scared breakdown was 17-31-29-21, while Bush's was 21-29-21-26)

....In 2016, the breakdown for each major candidate was as follows:

Clinton: 17-27-23-29
Trump: 13-27-20-36

That's right. For both major candidates, a plurality said they were "scared". This has to be a first (and hopefully a "last").

I, too, would like to see 1988 data. I know voter turnout in 1988 (and 1996) was historically low.
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2018, 11:13:16 AM »

Has there even been an election where both major candidates were viewed so negatively? The closest I can think of is 1976 and 1988. I think in 1976 the candidates were viewed as lackluster, rather than evil, and the level of antipathy to Bush and Dukakis in 1988 was not nearly as intense as that toward Clinton and Trump.

I've got to imagine that a 37.5% mean favorability is by far the lowest on record. I'm going off Gallup numbers here, which are typically more generous to the candidates. I also found this quantification of intense dislike:

http://news.gallup.com/poll/193376/trump-leads-clinton-historically-bad-image-ratings.aspx

The closest I can find is 1992, when the candidates had a mean approval of 47.7% (but I think Perot was the cause rather than the effect here).

The highest was 2008 when the mean was 59%, meaning at least 18% of the country had a favorable opinion of both candidates.

I'd still like to meet someone who likes both 2016 candidates.

Other years:

1992: 47.7

1996: 53.5

2000: 56.5

2004: 52.0

2008: 59.0

2012: 51.5

I searched and searched but could find nothing earlier. I imagine 1976 is before sophisticated polling on favorability was conducted.  I really want to find 1988 because I suspect that you're actually wrong – post-convention Gallup had Bush at 60% favorable. If anyone has access to Gallup Analytics, I'd ask them to look this information up.

Truman had a 38% approval rating in 1948:

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/popularity.php?pres=33

This is job approval, though, not favorability. I prefer favorability since it quantifies non-incumbents just as well as incumbents.

They tend to be correlated if you look at where Obama left off:

http://news.gallup.com/poll/202349/president-obama-leaves-white-house-favorable-rating.aspx

http://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

I don't think it's unfair to say that Truman likely had Hillary-level favorables.

I agree, it is very fair. The 1948 election, however, had the 4th lowest voter turnout of any election since 1924 (only 1988, 1996, and 2000 were lower). I can't think of an election in which greater numbers of people made a choice between two people they dislike or even hate, than in 2016.
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